NFL Anytime Touchdown Picks, TD Bets and a 33.33x Week 9 TD Parlay

The touchdowns went my way last week, but I still have a hole to dig myself out of after October. Fortunately, Week 9 offers plenty of TD value among our NFL picks in the 3.0x to 5.0x range.

I'm backing a few tight ends early, targeting backup running backs stepping into lead roles, and finding established No. 1 receivers at prices that are still too long.

These are my favorite NFL anytime touchdown scorer picks for Week 9.

Best Week 9 anytime touchdown scorer picks

For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.

Game	Pick	Probability
CIN vs ATL	Mike Gesicki	29%
DET vs MIA	Greg Dulcich	23%
NYJ vs KC	Rashee Rice	43%
LAR vs WAS	Stefon Diggs	29%
DAL vs IND	Brevyn Spann-Ford	25%
DEN vs CAR	Jonah Coleman	47%
NYG vs PHI	Dallas Goedert	25%
CLE vs NO	Harold Fannin	28%
LV vs SF	Mike Washington	36%
HOU vs LAC	Woody Marks	46%
GB vs NE	Matthew Golden	35%
ARI vs SEA	Tyler Allgeier	35%
TB vs CHI	Luther Burden	35%
BUF vs MIN	Jordan Addison	27%

Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.

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Bengals vs Falcons TD pick

Mike Gesicki 29%

GRADE: 🟢

I was hesitant to add Mike Gesicki to the card, because his five-game touchdown streak felt unsustainable given his snap and route shares. However, he ran a season-high 72% of routes last week.

I'm hoping the Bengals lean on the pass again indoors on the road, and the injuries to their secondary could force the offense to keep throwing. I got Gesicki at 3.45x against a fair price of 3.2x, with Joe Burrow getting him the ball.

Lions vs Dolphins TD pick

Greg Dulcich 23%

GRADE: 🟡

The Detroit Lions are about as favorable a matchup for tight ends as it gets. They allow the second-most yards to the position and are the only team giving up more than 1.00 TD per game to tight ends. The cluster of injuries in the secondary only strengthens Greg Dulcich's case this week, with a 23% market probability against my fair estimate of 26%.

The Miami tight end tied for the team lead in targets and ranked second in air yards last week. He has also commanded 100% of the team's TE red-zone targets. With little competition for tight end snaps on passing downs and a favorable matchup that should produce a pass-heavy game script, he's my pick to score in this game.

Jets vs Chiefs TD pick

Rashee Rice 43%

GRADE: 🟡

Rashee Rice returned to action last week after missing two games and scored on a team-high eight targets. Now he faces a defense that just allowed Kirk Cousins to throw three touchdowns and surrendered 38 points. 

Even at 2.23x, I'd still play Rice to 2.1x this week vs. a defense that has the fourth-worst TD rate per game to opposing wide receivers. In all four of his games this year, Rice has either scored a TD or topped 80 yards.

Rams vs Commanders TD pick

Stefon Diggs 29%

GRADE: 🟢

The Rams could be without both starting cornerbacks and their starting safety, and Washington will likely have to pass more than it wants to. Stefon Diggs might not play 85% of the snaps, but he's on the field for passing downs and leads the team with a 23% target share, which jumps to 28% on routes run. For a No. 1 receiver, getting a TD price longer than 3.0x offers value when my fair price is around 2.8x.

Diggs has twice as many red-zone targets as the next-closest WR and has caught a TD in each of the five games Jayden Daniels has started.

Cowboys vs Colts TD pick

Brevyn Spann-Ford 25%

GRADE: 🟢

The Cowboys get a chance to beat up on the struggling Colts this week. With Jake Ferguson questionable and Luke Schoonmaker having missed Week 8, this is the time to buy Brevyn Spann-Ford stock. I have his TD at 25% (4.0x), and if Ferguson misses the game, I think this should be priced closer to 3.2x.

The Colts are also one of the worst teams in football at defending the TE position, allowing the fifth-most tight-end TDs per game. The Jaguars didn't need to pass much against this Indy defense last week, but their tight ends still tied for the team lead in targets and finished second in receiving yards. Playing indoors only adds to the appeal.

Broncos vs Panthers TD pick

Jonah Coleman 47%

GRADE: 🟡

I've hit with this backfield in consecutive weeks, which is never easy, but it looks like Jonah Coleman is the preferred option in this division-leading offense.

The rookie had 15 touches last week with RJ Harvey (IR) out, including six red-zone carries and one target in Week 8. That was one of the heaviest red-zone workloads of any player in football. The Panthers are a dream matchup, as they allow the most TDs to opposing running backs and rank in the bottom five in red-zone TD%.

With the Broncos favored by around a touchdown, the running game should feature heavily, and Coleman is a buy for me at even money or better this week.

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Giants vs Eagles TD pick

Dallas Goedert 25%

GRADE: 🟡

There are questions surrounding the Eagles' offense, with DeVonta Smith and Dontayvion Wicks questionable midweek. That could open the door for the most reliable pass catcher on the team, Dallas Goedert, to find the end zone at 3.5x. I have his fair price at 3.2x.

The Giants rank in the bottom five in red-zone TD%, and Goedert has seen 19 targets across the three games with Tanner McKee under center. That makes him one of the safer TD bets in an Eagles offense where several key contributors are carrying injury designations.

Browns vs Saints TD pick

Harold Fannin 28%

GRADE: 🟡

I'm buying Harold Fannin this week at 3.3x, not just because he hauled in 10 catches with Deshaun Watson last week, but also because of what he did with Shedeur Sanders last season.

Sanders is likely to start in Week 9. Across six games with Sanders under center, Fannin scored four TDs and drew double-digit targets twice. This is an indoor game, which should help passing volume and efficiency. I have Fannin's fair price in this matchup at 3.0x against a defense allowing more than 27 points per game.

Raiders vs 49ers TD pick

Mike Washington 36%

GRADE: 🟢

Mike Washington was the featured back for the Raiders last week in their 38-point outburst. Although he didn't find the end zone, he handled 25 carries, the third-most by any running back in Week 8. It's not an easy matchup against a 49ers team coming off its bye, but this is all about price. At 2.85x, the potential volume makes him a buy, and he's one I'd play down to 2.35x this week.

Ashton Jeanty is averaging just 3.1 yards per carry this season and has been heavily criticized in the media this week. It might be time for him to sit back and watch the better back.

Texans vs Chargers TD pick

Woody Marks 46%

GRADE: 🟢

David Montgomery isn't ready to return, and even if he were, this would likely still be Woody Marks' backfield in an indoor game against one of the most favorable run defenses on paper.

The Texans' offense is healthy and loaded coming out of the bye, and it faces a team that has failed to cover a single game this season. The Chargers are also one of just five teams allowing more than one rushing TD per game to running backs. The last time we saw Marks, he played 89% of the snaps and handled 19 carries. He has very little competition for touches and should get the bulk of the red-zone work against a defense dealing with multiple injuries in the secondary. I'd play Marks to 53% this week.

Packers vs Patriots TD pick

Matthew Golden 35%

GRADE: 🟡

Christian Watson is dealing with a rib injury and might not be 100% heading into Sunday, while Matthew Golden has four TDs over his last six games and has seen 38 targets over his last three games, with double-digit looks in each.

I got this at 2.94x, compared to prices of 2.4x and 2.3x over the last two weeks. New England's pass defense isn't particularly stout and is one of seven units allowing more than one receiving TD per game to opposing wide receivers. Four New England defensive starters are also listed as questionable midweek. I like this one down to 2.5x.

Cardinals vs Seahawks TD pick

Tyler Allgeier 35%

GRADE: 🟢

Tyler Allgeier was my guy last week, and he delivered. Now he has an even bigger opportunity with the loss of Jeremiah Love and Bam Knight dealing with a concussion. It's not an easy matchup against the Seahawks, but this Arizona offense has some Minshew Magic, and Allgeier should have all the red-zone opportunities he can handle.

Seattle has the league's worst red-zone TD% at a massive 83%. The Bears scored on all four of their red-zone possessions Monday. A lead back with that kind of red-zone workload should be priced at 2.5x or shorter, making this 2.78x price a value play.

Buccaneers vs Bears TD pick

Luther Burden 35%

GRADE: 🟡

The Bucs have a legitimate defense, but we just saw what Chicago's offense can do against elite competition on Monday night. We also saw Luther Burden emerge as the No. 1 option in one of the best offenses in football. He leads the team in target share, has TDs in back-to-back weeks, and has 18 catches on 21 targets for 281 yards over his last three games with Caleb Williams.

This was available at 2.75x, and I'd play it down to 2.6x. The Bears should get their 70 plays in, and Burden has 11 red-zone targets this season, leading the team and ranking sixth in the NFL.

Bills vs Vikings TD pick

Jordan Addison 27%

GRADE: 🟢

Any quality receiver against this Buffalo defense at 3.5x or better is worth a look. I got Jordan Addison at 4.0x after he saw eight targets and accounted for 52% of the air yards in Week 8. As a 3.5-point underdog indoors, Minnesota may have to push the ball downfield, which sets up nicely for a 4.0x TD price.

No team allows more receiving TDs to opposing wide receivers than the Bills at 1.35 per game. Buffalo also ranks in the bottom seven in both dropback EPA and dropback success rate.

Week 9 touchdown combo

All four running backs are projected for heavy workloads in Week 9, with very little competition for red-zone touches.

Miami is a big underdog, but the Dolphins tend to get conservative in the red zone, and Ollie Gordon has scored a touchdown in four of his last five games.

Woody Marks should get all he can handle indoors against the Chargers with David Montgomery out.

Tyler Allgeier draws a Seattle defense with the worst red-zone TD% in football and could have the backfield to himself if Bam Knight (concussion) sits.

Finally, Quinshon Judkins should benefit from conservative play-calling in the red zone in an indoor matchup against a generous New Orleans defense.

My weekly NFL TD props column is 26-78 this season for -14.25 units.

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