Three of our four Covers experts are backing Miami to keep things close against Notre Dame on Saturday night, while the fourth expects a defensive battle in South Bend.
Our Miami vs Notre Dame best bets break down the spread and total for this heavyweight Week 10 clash, with kickoff set for 7:30 p.m. ET on NBC.
For more betting angles, check out our college football picks.
Miami vs Notre Dame expert picks for tonight
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 Probability |
|
|---|---|
 Brad Powers: Miami +7.5 |
48% |
 Rob Paul: Miami +7.5 |
48% |
 Colby Marchio: Under 55.5 |
54% |
 Chris Vasile: Miami +7.5 |
48% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Brad Powers’ expert pick: Miami +7.5
Miami hasn't lost by more than seven points in 41 games. Each of the Hurricanes' last nine losses has come by seven points or fewer, making it difficult for opponents to create separation.
Miami has been an underdog just four times over the last three years, going 4-0 ATS in those games, covering by an average of 9.3 points and winning three outright. All-American receiver Malachi Toney is out, but Notre Dame is also missing four defensive starters.
Rob Paul’s expert pick: Miami +7.5
Losing Malachi Toney is a tough blow, but Miami is still the No. 1 team in the country, with several other NFL-caliber playmakers on offense. That includes Cooper Barkate, who topped 1,000 receiving yards at Duke last season with Darian Mensah at quarterback.
Mensah has been the country's most efficient quarterback, leading college football in QBR (90.3) and adjusted completion percentage (86.2%). With Mensah under center, Shannon Dawson's offense ranks first nationally in net adjusted EPA per play, pass success rate (59.2%), and EPA per dropback.
Notre Dame is missing three starters in its back seven: linebacker Drayk Bowen, safety Tae Johnson, and cornerback DJ McKinney. Miami should still be able to move the ball without Toney. Mario Cristobal has also thrived as an underdog lately. Last season, the Hurricanes covered four straight College Football Playoff games, three as underdogs.
Colby Marchio’s expert pick: Under 55.5
Malachi Toney's absence will hurt Miami's offense, especially against the toughest defense the Hurricanes have faced since playing Indiana in the national championship. This will also be Miami's coldest game of the season, with temperatures expected to dip into the mid-40s. How will these Florida boys handle the chilly weather?
On the other side, this will be Notre Dame's toughest opponent since BYU. Expect an all-out fight in South Bend, where points could be at a premium.
If you need a side lean, it's Miami. It's Notre Dame, after all. They don't win big games.
Chris Vasile’s expert pick: Miami +7.5
Losing Malachi Toney hurts, especially with the Hurricanes heading into South Bend, but there's still plenty to like about Miami's offense. Darian Mensah has this team unbeaten, and the Hurricanes have scored at least 38 points in five straight games.
Notre Dame's defense isn't invincible, either. BYU converted eight of 12 third downs against the Irish, which tells me Miami can sustain drives. I still think the Hurricanes have a shot to win outright, so getting more than a touchdown is a bonus.
Miami vs Notre Dame odds for tonight
How to watch Miami vs Notre Dame
| Location | Notre Dame Stadium, Notre Dame, Ind. |
| Date | Saturday, Nov. 7, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBC |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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