The Week 10 slate is loaded with premier Power Four action, but the Group of Six has several teams looking to solidify their places in their conference championship races, reach bowl eligibility, or avoid being eliminated from the bowl hunt.
Two of the top teams in my Week 10 Group of Six picks are on a Conference USA Championship collision course, with Jacksonville State and Liberty poised to blow out their competition.
My G6 college football picks also feature two Mountain West programs in advantageous matchups and a power in the new Pac-12.
Week 10 Group of 6 college football picks
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, please see our odds calculator.
| Matchup |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Northern Illinoisvs  San Jose State |
-9.5 52% |
 Sam Houstonvs  Jacksonville State |
-16.5 53% |
 Libertyvs  New Mexico State |
-16.5 50% |
 Hawaii vs  UTEP |
-8.5 52% |
 Fresno Statevs  Utah State |
-2.5 48% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
Start trading with Kalshi today!
Sign up now using our exclusive Kalshi promo code 'MAX60' and trade $25 on any event contracts to get $60!
*Eligible U.S. locations only
CFB Group of 6 picks this week
Northern Illinois vs San Jose State: San Jose State -9.5
Northern Illinois was in a worst-case scenario heading into the season, and somehow it's gone even worse than expected. Not only are the Huskies adjusting to a nonsensical geographical move in their first year in the Mountain West, but interim head coach Rob Harley was put in an impossible position when given the job in mid-February.
NIU is 0-8 straight-up and 2-6 ATS, having failed to cover in four of its last five games. It won't be any easier against San Jose State, and I'd play the Spartans up to -13.5 at home.
San Jose State has one of the more underrated defenses in the G6, sitting 24th nationally in points allowed per opportunity (2.90) and 45th in available yards percentage (43.1%). If NIU can't score, it won't stay in this game.
The Huskies have one of the worst defenses in the country, ranking second-to-last in the FBS in defensive success rate (52.9%) and available yards percentage (62.3%).
Sam Houston vs Jacksonville State: Jacksonville State -16.5
Will there be a dead Bearkat bounce for Sam Houston after firing Phil Longo? Don't count on it, as I like Jacksonville State to cover at -17.5 or better at home.
Sam Houston had been one of the least competitive programs in the country under Longo, going 3-17 during his tenure and 6-14 ATS. Firing him won't change much this season for a program that hasn't covered the spread since Sept. 19 against an FCS opponent.
To make matters worse for the Bearkats, this Jacksonville State team is surging toward a third straight CUSA Championship berth. The Gamecocks have won five straight games and are 4-0 ATS at home this season thanks to Caden Creel. The dual-threat QB has Jax State ranked 17th nationally in rush success rate (49%).
Sam Houston's defense has been far better than its offense, which is 136th in net adjusted EPA per play, but it hasn't been able to stop the run this season. The Bearkats are 90th in EPA per rush and set to lose their fourth game in five outings by double digits.
Liberty vs New Mexico State: Liberty -16.5
After a down year last season, Jamey Chadwell has Liberty playing up to its billing as one of the most well-resourced G6 programs in college football. The Flames haven't faced a competitive opponent since the start of the season and have covered the spread in six straight games by an average of 18 points.
I like Liberty up to -19.5, with Chadwell's spread-option attack being unstoppable in CUSA play this year. The Flames are top 20 nationally in EPA per pass and EPA per rush thanks to the trio of Deshawn Purdie, Kam Davis, and Makai Jackson.
Even with a quality defense, New Mexico State won't slow those three down enough to cover, especially with how poor its offense has played this season.
The Aggies rank outside the top 100 in offensive success rate (41%), and if Liberty keys in on star running back James Jones, New Mexico State will have nothing to lean on against the Flames.
Hawaii vs UTEP: Hawaii -8.5
It's been a bumpy season for Hawaii, but the Rainbow Warriors are coming off a bye after a huge road win and can ride that momentum into another road victory against a lowly conference opponent.
This UTEP team is 0-7 ATS against FBS opponents and was just beaten by North Dakota State last week. Now, with the Miners facing a rested Hawaii team that's finally finding its rhythm offensively, the Rainbow Warriors can cover a spread as large as -12.5.
Micah Alejado just played his best game of the season (75.0 QBR), and UTEP's defense isn't equipped to slow him down. The Miners sit 125th in pass success rate on defense (50.5%) and second-to-last in the Mountain West in havoc rate (13.6%).
Hawaii's defense doesn't have much to worry about either, with UTEP ranking last nationally (138th) in EPA per pass, available yards percentage (25.6%), early-down EPA per play, and average third-down distance (8.32 yards).
Fresno State vs Utah State: Fresno State -2.5
If you stayed up late last week for Pac-12 After Dark, you saw Fresno State end the Oregon State hype behind a dominant defensive performance. The Bulldogs covered for the sixth time in seven games last week, and against Utah State, they can cover up to -4.5 on the road.
This will be a defensive war, but Fresno State has the advantage against a Utah State offense that's ranked 134th in success rate (36.6%) and bottom 20 in the country in yards per game (326.1).
The Aggies might not crack 20 points against a Fresno State defense that's only allowing 21 per game, and if Utah State can't score, the Bulldogs' offense will pull away.
With Jayden Mandal playing efficient football, Fresno State is top 25 nationally in EPA per pass and should make enough plays against a Utah State defense that's 73rd in pass success rate (43.6%).
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
