College Football Predictions Week 10: Brad Powers’ CFB Best Bets

We have a 41-0 trend backing this pick.

Nov. 4, 2023.

That's the date Miami last lost a football game by more than seven points. Forty-one games ago.

Each of Miami's last nine losses has been by seven points or fewer. It's safe to say it is tough to get margin on this program.

On top of that, Miami has only been an underdog four times in the last three years. The Hurricanes are 4-0 ATS, covering those games by an average of 9.3 points per game, and have won three outright.

On the other side, Notre Dame has been awful in these AP top-10 games. Since 1994, the Fighting Irish are 7-23 straight up in games where both teams are ranked in the top 10.

They are 12-17-1 ATS, failing to cover those games by 4.4 points per game. Marcus Freeman has lost three straight in this role, and he was favored in two.

Yes, All-American wide receiver Malachi Toney is out for this game. Toney is one of the most valuable non-quarterbacks in college football. However, I don't think he is worth two points, especially when it means crossing the key number of seven.

Four defensive starters are out for Notre Dame, including linebacker Drayk Bowen, who leads the team in tackles and wore the green dot on his helmet, equipped with a coach-to-player radio receiver. The market did not react to this news. It should have.

I would play this to +7.

My power ratings make Ohio State a 12-point favorite in this game, the biggest disparity in several weeks.

The market downgraded Ohio State too much for its upset loss to USC last week. Ohio State had a 464-338 edge in yards and held the ball for nearly 40 minutes.

Ohio State had six trips inside USC's 25-yard line. That resulted in four field goals and a touchdown. I didn't think freshman quarterback Luke Fahey was the major issue. A season-high 11 penalties were an issue, along with 11 missed tackles.

On the injury front, Oregon will be without leading rusher Jordon Davison. OSU will see the return of safety Jay Timmons, who is arguably its best defensive player. Timmons did not play in the USC game and was sorely missed.

On the other side, Oregon quarterback Dylan Raiola has been hit-and-miss. He had a 98.5 QBR vs. USC and followed it up with a 3.3 vs. UCLA.

He then had an 81.0 QBR vs. Nebraska but followed it up with a 17.7 vs. Illinois. Last week, his QBR was 83.4 vs. Northwestern. Does that mean we're getting "bad" Raiola here? If so, Ohio State wins by double digits.

Finally, if the season ended today, the Buckeyes would not be in the playoffs. I think that will add urgency and motivation.

I would play this to -8.5.

My power ratings made Kansas a 4.5-point favorite here.

Kansas is one of the most underrated teams in the country. Despite a 3-5 record, the Jayhawks have outgained their opponents by 104 yards per game, ranking No. 27 nationally.

Last week, they had a dominant 451-286 edge in yards against TCU and led 13-0 late in the third quarter. A 60-yard pick-six completely changed the momentum in the game, and Kansas would lose 22-16.

On the other side, UCF has been outgained on the season by 17 yards per game. Quarterback Keyone Jenkins, who has started the last five games, will miss this game. UCF will turn back to opening-day starter Alonza Barnett, who still does not look 100%.

On Tuesday, Jayhawks' offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki said that Kansas quarterbacks Cole Ballard and Isaiah Marshall were out practicing and moving well.

Twenty-four hours later, Ballard and Marshall were questionable on the first availability report. I expect at least one of them to play and this line to close -3 or higher.

I would play this to -3.