The Chicago Bears stormed the Super Bowl castle on Monday and now enter Week 9 as the third overall favorites to hoist the Lombardi Trophy this season.
But before they start planning a parade route in the Windy City, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers blow into town for a Sunday Night Football showdown with Chicago.
My Bucs vs. Bears predictions size up the swelling opening spread and kick the tires on the total, giving you my early leans and NFL picks for SNF on Nov. 8.
Buccaneers vs Bears predictions
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Early Buccaneers vs Bears spread pick: Bucs +6.5
My early lean is to take the points with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but I’d like to get more on this spread for the underdog. Perhaps public perception pushes this to a touchdown and beyond later in the week.
The Chicago Bears have a short turnaround to come down from a statement win at Seattle on Monday night. Chicago looked strong on both sides of the ball, especially a new-look defense with DL Jeffery Simmons causing chaos up front.
Tampa Bay poses a bigger threat on the ground than the Seahawks’ punchless rushing attack, allowing the Bucs to dominate the football and keep Caleb Williams & Co. on the sidelines.
The Buccaneers rode their running backs to victory in a rain-soaked matchup with Atlanta in Week 7, rumbling for 324 yards on the ground. But even before that weirdo result, Tampa was a top-tier run game in EPA per handoff, DVOA and run block win rate.
Tampa Bay was one of the “unluckiest” teams to start the season, with high variance swinging close games. It still feels like the market is pricing the Bucs that way. They are 3-1 in their last four with that lone loss coming in OT after a fourth-quarter collapse.
The pendulum is coming back and this offense is catching up to the defense, especially with Baker Mayfield back under center, making Tampa Bay one of the better two-way teams during this streak.
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Early Buccaneers vs Bears total pick: Under 46.5
Tampa Bay’s defense has been the catalyst of this recent turnaround. The Bucs are No. 1 in EPA allowed per play since Week 5 by a wide margin and have been especially stingy against the pass.
What’s even more impressive is that they’ve built those stats against some of the better passing attacks in the NFL, snuffing out the likes of Dallas, Green Bay and Carolina – all of which rank Top 10 in passing yards.
In addition to doing the little things right, like third down defense and red-zone TD rate, the blitz-heavy schemes are creating chaos, helping generate a league-high 16 takeaways. Those game-changing plays make Tampa a dangerous dog.
The Bears offense could shy away from the pass game and lean into the run, with RB1 Kyle Monangai potentially back from injury. He’s missed the past four games but really gives Chicago pop on the ground when he’s active.
There’s also a chance of rain and some wind in the extended forecast for Solider Field on Sunday night, so I’ll lean toward the Under 46.5 points.
Buccaneers vs Bears odds
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Buccaneers vs Bears spread: Bears -6.5
- Buccaneers vs Bears moneyline: Buccaneers 28%, Bears 72%
- Buccaneers vs Bears Over/Under: 46.5
How to watch Buccaneers vs Bears
- Date: Sunday, Nov. 8, 2026, 8:20 p.m. ET
- City: Chicago IL
- Venue: Soldier Field
- TV: NBC
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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