The Buffalo Bills head to Minnesota to take on the Vikings as a 3-point favorite on Monday, Nov. 9, and my top Bills vs. Vikings prediction has this prime time affair going Under.
The Bills' O-line issues come at a bad time, and that's coupled with a Carson Wentz appearance on an already underperforming Vikings offense.
These are my NFL picks for the Week 9 edition of Monday Night Football.
TOP Pick
Bills vs Vikings prediction: Under 44.5
The Minnesota Vikings have flown under the radar as one of the best Under teams in the NFL over the last 12 months. They've hit the Under in 16 of their last 19 games, generating a cool 60% ROI.
This 44.5-point total has seen some movement to the Under elsewhere, crossing the key number of 44, and was as high as 47.5 on the lookahead when Kyler Murray was expected under center.
I understand Josh Allen is the NFL MVP odds favorite, and he's had success against Brian Flores' defense in the past, posting a 16:2 TD-to-INT ratio over six games. However, the combination of Carson Wentz, injuries to the Buffalo Bills' offensive line, and this blitz-heavy defense has me leaning toward the Under.
Buffalo could be without three starting offensive linemen against this dangerous defense. LT Dion Dawkins and LG Alec Anderson both missed practice this week, while RT Spencer Brown missed Week 8 and remains questionable. To make matters worse, Josh Palmer is doubtful, DJ Moore has been limited, and Khalil Shakir was a DNP on Friday for personal reasons.
Buffalo could put up 25 points, and this could still be a comfortable Under with how ugly Wentz and this offense have looked. The Bills' defense pressures QBs at the third-highest rate, and this was already a Bottom 5 offense with Murray under center.
COVERS INTEL: The left side of the Bills' O-line was DNP at practice on Friday, which is bad news vs. a Minnesota defense that blitzes at a league-high 73% of the time. This unit also leads the league in opposing QBR, points, expected points allowed, sacks, and QB pressure.
TOP PICK
Bills vs Vikings combo
Both tight ends are projecting Over their reception totals, with T.J. Hockenson at 4.94 and Dalton Kincaid at 4.14. Hockenson saw four targets in Wentz's only start in the rain in Chicago, but was also targeted five times in the season opener.
He should see more opportunities with Wentz under center than he did with Murray.
Kincaid has things back on track with 11 catches over his last two games, and the injuries to Buffalo's other pass catchers only help his outlook. He should be back in that 6-8 target range.
Carson Wentz is plus-money to throw an interception, which is great value on its own, especially if Minnesota is chasing points as a 3-point home underdog. The extra day of rest should also benefit Buffalo's defense more than Minnesota's offense.
Wentz threw five interceptions in five starts last season.
Bills vs Vikings combo
- Hockenson Over 4.5 receptions
- Kincaid Over 3.5 receptions
- Wentz Over 0.5 interceptions
TOP PICK
Bills vs Vikings Touchdown prop: Jordan Addison
The loss of Murray doesn't significantly change my outlook on this play, but any quality receiver facing this Buffalo defense at 3.5x or better is worth a look.
I got Jordan Addison at 4.0x after he saw eight targets and accounted for 52% of Minnesota's air yards in Week 8. As a 3-point underdog in an indoor game, the Vikings could be forced to push the ball downfield, creating a favorable setup for Addison at this price.
No team allows more receiving touchdowns to opposing wide receivers than the Bills at 1.35 per game. They're also a Bottom 7 unit in both dropback EPA and dropback success rate.
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- Top picks: 5-2 +2.78 units
- Combos: 0-7, -7 units
Bills vs Vikings odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Bills -3.5 | Vikings +3.5
- Over/Under: Over 44.5 (50%) | Under 44.5 (52%)
- Moneyline: Bills 61% | Vikings 39%
For the full slate of NFL matchups, check out our NFL odds board!
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Bills vs Vikings weather
This is an indoor game.
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Bills vs Vikings trend to know
The Vikings have hit the Under in 16 of their last 19 games (+12.70 Units / 60% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Bills vs. Vikings.
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How to watch Bills vs Vikings
| Location | U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN |
| Date | Monday, Nov. 9, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Bills vs Vikings latest injuries
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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