The Indianapolis Colts host the desperate Dallas Cowboys amid a fire sale, with the trade deadline looming over Lucas Oil Stadium in Week 9.
Dallas is laying just shy of six points on the road despite going 1-3 in its last four games, including a back-breaking collapse against Arizona last Sunday.
My Cowboys vs. Colts prediction is wary of Indy's wheeling and dealing while trusting Dallas about as much as a dollar-store condom.
Here are my best NFL picks for this chaotic non-conference clash on Nov. 8.
TOP Pick
Cowboys vs Colts prediction: Over 51.5
At this point in the season, it’s pretty much Over or nothing in Dallas Cowboys games. This team is the perfect recipe for topping the total.
The offense is a high-octane attack, striking for big gains and playing at one of the fastest paces in the land. Meanwhile, the defense is a bunch of rusty lawn chairs, making every opposing passer look like an All-Pro arm.
Next in line for a Dallas “Glow Up” is Indianapolis Colts quarterback Daniel Jones, who’s running the risk of getting cut after a bad start to 2026.
To his defense, Indianapolis has faced some very stingy stop units the past few games, taking on the likes of Jacksonville, Minnesota, and Pittsburgh — all Top 10 in EPA allowed — with each of those meetings coming on the road.
Jones and this offense are back home for just the second time in six weeks and face a Cowboys secondary near the bottom of almost every pass defense metric. And as bad as Dallas is at defending downfield, it’s equally as stinky stopping the run.
The Colts’ defense is just as rotten. Indianapolis is 27th in defensive DVOA at FTN and has allowed the third most yards per play to foes entering Week 9 (5.9).
Dak Prescott & Co. are arguably the best offense the Colts have clashed with, and Indy has hemorrhaged piles of points to other solid scoring attacks, giving up 30+ points in four games.
COVERS INTEL: Dallas’ offensive pace isn’t helping its defense. The Cowboys are a Top 5 attack in efficiency and use the fewest seconds of play clock. That’s led to an average TOP of 28:34 (sixth fewest), scoring quickly and forcing the D back on the field.
Cowboys vs Colts combo
The Colts catch a break playing a rare home game against a bad Dallas defense, and tight end Tyler Warren has stepped up as a big part of this passing attack with Alec Pierce out.
Warren's targets have spiked, and he’s produced against far stiffer defenses than Dallas. Projections are very positive, with most models well above 50 yards and his TD forecast as high as 43% in Week 9.
Cowboys vs Colts combo
- Over 51.5
- Tyler Warren anytime touchdown
- Tyler Warren 40+ receiving yards
Cowboys vs Colts touchdown scorer: Tyler Warren
Red zone trips have been few and far between for this struggling Colts offense, considering the defensive opposition.
Indianapolis is averaging just 2.8 drives inside their opponents’ 20-yard line. Warren has seen just five RZ targets for three catches and two TDs, but he gets a much easier foe in Week 9.
The Cowboys allow rivals to score a touchdown on nearly 69% of their red-zone possessions. They were lit up by Arizona TE Trey McBride last week, including a score in that OT loss.
Touchdown forecasts for Warren sit around 40% for Indianapolis’ TE in Week 9.
- Top picks: 13-8, +3.19 units
- Combos: 0-21, -21.0 units
Cowboys vs Colts odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Cowboys -5.5 | Colts +5.5
- Over/Under: Over 51.5 (52%) | Under 51.5 (49%)
- Moneyline: Cowboys 69% | Colts 31%
For the full slate of NFL matchups, check out our NFL odds board!
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Cowboys vs Colts weather
It’s home sweet dome inside Lucas Oil Stadium.
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Cowboys vs Colts trend to know
The Colts have gone 10-5 Over/Under (67% Overs) in their last 15 games as home underdogs. Find more NFL betting trends for Cowboys vs. Colts.
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How to watch Cowboys vs Colts
| Location | Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN |
| Date | Sunday, Nov. 8, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 1 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
Cowboys vs Colts latest injuries
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