November signals a somber side road in the calendar.
This month poses a damp, dark gap between the fun of Halloween and the cheer of Christmas. And with the “Super” El Niño blowing warm air around, I don’t know whether to put up the Xmas lights or pull out the Slip N Slide.
We’ve also reached that confusing spot with the NFL schedule in Week 9. The honeymoon of the new season is long over, but the thrill of the postseason chase is still a month off.
It can be a challenging window for your NFL picks. Is what we’ve witnessed in the first two months going to hold up, or are things about to get flipped on their ear?
My NFL underdog picks for Week 9 walk the line between what we know and what we don’t.
Last week: 1-2 ATS
Season: 13-11 ATS
NFL Week 9 underdog picks
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Panthers +2.5 vs. Broncos
The Carolina Panthers used a mini bye to shake up their defense, firing coordinator Ejiro Evero and others after giving up a collective 70 points in the past two games.
Veteran assistant Todd Wash takes over this stop unit, with his focus on stoking the fires in the front four. Expect to see a sprinkle of four-man fronts from a stop unit that used a 3-4 base under Evero.
That throws gas on the pass rush and helps the Panthers’ poor run defense. It also tosses a curveball at Sean Payton as he tries to prepare for this puzzling Denver Broncos offense.
Denver ranks among the bottom offenses in the land... for three quarters. Then Bo Nix goes full “He-Man” in the fourth, with this attack suddenly transforming into a Top 5 unit.
Granted, several of those late-game heroics have come at home, and the Broncos own a -2.8 margin on the road. Those crazy comebacks are tougher to come by away from Mile High.
Not only does Carolina have the rest edge against a Broncos team traveling for a 1 p.m. ET start, but there could be key bodies coming back in Week 9. Most notably, help on the offensive line goes a long way with QB Bryce Young among the most pressured passers.
Packers +3.5 at Patriots
The New England Patriots’ skill positions look about as skimpy as the bottom of my kids’ Halloween bags right now.
Gone are the elite chocolate bars and gummy treats, leaving only off-brand “chews” and those old-school molasses candies.
Big names like WR A.J. Brown, TE Hunter Henry, and RB TreVeyon Henderson all carry injury designations into Week 9 for an offense already missing bodies in multiple spots.
The Patriots are going to need points with an explosive Green Bay Packers attack showing up Sunday.
This New England defense has given up 25 passing plays of 20+ yards and ranks 22nd in opponent success rate per dropback. The Cheeseheads are slinging it, sitting second in intended air yards and tops in "explosive" passes (33 of 20+ yards).
The Pats’ blitz-heavy schemes may work against the likes of Malik Willis and Geno Smith, but Green Bay quarterback Jordan Love is one of the top passers at picking apart the blitz.
He’s busted blitz-happy opponents like Carolina, Chicago, and Minnesota for big gains in 2026. Love is also elite throwing against man coverage, which New England uses at the third-highest frequency.
Buccaneers +6.5 at Bears
The market on the "Monsters of the Midway" is anything but a “bear” in Week 9.
A Chicago Bears' statement road win over the defending Super Bowl champs in prime time has Chicago’s stock soaring up the futures boards and pumping up the point spread for Sunday night’s home date with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Look-ahead lines listed the Bucs as 5.5-point road underdogs before MNF, with that opening spread busting through the key number of six and sitting just shy of a touchdown.
Tampa Bay is being priced as a losing team, but this is one of the best two-way clubs in the NFL over the past four weeks (3-1 SU and ATS).
Quarterback Baker Mayfield is another week healed, and with the way this ground game is pounding foes into submission (582 total rushing yards in the past two outings), the Bucs are dominating possession and limiting opponent touches.
The Tampa defense is also rating as elite, which is even more impressive when you see the passing games the Buccaneers have been able to bottle up (Green Bay, Dallas, Carolina).
They’re not giving up big plays, checking opposing QBs to the second-lowest average depth of target and the seventh-fewest “explosive” passes allowed. Tampa Bay is also stepping up in high-leverage spots, like third downs and red zone defense.
A short week and a little letdown spot, along with an inflated spread, is too much for Chicago to overcome at this current line.
Week 9 underdog combo
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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