College Football Underdog Picks & Upset Predictions: Week 10

Colby Marchio - Contributor at Covers.com
Colby Marchio • Betting Analyst 7+ years betting experience
Updated: Nov 5, 2026 , 11:45 AM ET • 4 min read

Minnesota, BYU, and Illinois are the Week 10 underdogs with real bite, and I’m backing all three to pull off the upset.

College football underdogs Week 10. Custom image of Bear Bachmeier and P.J. Fleck.
Photo By - Reuters Connect. Custom image of Bear Bachmeier and P.J. Fleck.

A reverse sweep in Week 9 for the underdogs. The past is the past, and this week I've lined up three college football underdog picks for the weekend!

This week's dogs include a pair of Big Ten underdogs with some bite, plus BYU. All three have a legitimate shot at pulling off an upset, and I'm ready to back them.

Before you dive in, check out our college football picks page for Week 10.

CFB Week 10 underdog picks

For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, please see our odds calculator.

Pick Kalshi
Probability
Minnesota Minnesota 34%
BYU BYU 37%
Illinois Illinois 36%

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Minnesota Minnesota (vs UCLA)

This marks the UCLA Bruins' first road trip outside the West Coast since Week 4, when they traveled to Maryland. We are now in Week 10, and this will be the Bruins' toughest road test since they followed up that Maryland game by beating the Ducks in Eugene. Oregon has not lived up to the hype this season, and it may still be better than the Minnesota Golden Gophers, but playing in Minnesota is always a grueling task.

Head coach P.J. Fleck always has his boys ready to go in these big moments. He's 18-12-1 ATS at Minnesota, including a 7-5-1 mark as a home underdog. Overall, Fleck owns a 43-22 record at home during his time with the university.

The Golden Gophers have been playing exceptional football all season, keeping games against top teams competitive and covering at a high rate. I love them in this spot. Plus, with this being a noon kickoff on Saturday, the Golden Gophers have the time advantage.

BYU BYU (vs Utah)

First of all, a 10 a.m. MT kickoff for this matchup should be considered a war crime.

I'll keep it short and sweet for the BYU Cougars. Their resume trumps that of the Utah Utes. Sure, Utah beat a top-25 Houston team in Week 8, but besides that, who have they played? Do not try to puke out the word "Arkansas" just because they're an SEC team.

BYU's loss to UCF was somewhat expected coming off a Super Bowl win at home against Notre Dame. They cleaned things up the following week, playing a tough first half against Arizona State before taking their foot off the gas in the second. Meanwhile, Utah put the belt to the Bearcats' bottom in Cincinnati, picking up a 49-25 win.

I love the dog in a big rivalry.

Illinois Illinois (vs Nebraska)

While Matt Rhule is pondering retirement after his family was chirped at in public, Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Bret Bielema is preparing his boys for a fourth straight win.

This Illinois bunch has improved drastically over its last three games, beating Michigan State on the road, Oregon at home, and Maryland on the road. The defense has stepped up tremendously. Illinois is allowing 26 points and 386 yards per game this season, but over that three-game stretch, those numbers have dropped to 21.2 points and 352 yards per game.

On the other end, the Cornhuskers have struggled to find the end zone, scoring 17 or fewer points in three straight games.

With Illinois trending upward and the Nebraska Cornhuskers heading in the opposite direction, I like the Illini.

Week 10 underdog combo

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Colby Marchio
Betting Analyst

Colby Marchio is a two-time DePaul alum and former Division 1 (club) baseball player who has been sports betting since 2019. Since graduating in 2021, he has worked throughout the media circuit, hosting and appearing on various television and radio shows while making countless guest appearances discussing Major League Baseball, college basketball, college football, and the National Football League.

A self-proclaimed numbers nerd, Colby may enjoy digging through the data even more than winning itself. That passion is why his two favorite sports to cover are college basketball and Major League Baseball. 

As for his favorite sportsbook, it is whichever one has the best price, or whichever one is not taxing him as an Illinois resident. 

You can find all of his plays and more @ColbyMBets on Twitter/X.

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