Tom Brady will be in the booth for his former team's game Sunday, but Green Bay's defense could steal the spotlight.
My Packers vs. Patriots prediction backs the underdog, with New England laying 3.5 points and a 44.5-point total at Gillette Stadium. Kickoff is at 4:25 p.m. ET, and two player props round out my picks.
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TOP Pick
Packers vs Patriots prediction: Packers +3.5
I'm locking in the Green Bay Packers +3.5, down to +2.5, because they have better net early-down EPA per play and a higher quarterback-pressure rate differential than the New England Patriots, and I like this matchup for Green Bay's defense.
According to RBSDM.com, the Packers rank third in weighted defensive EPA per dropback. Drake Maye struggled against the Seahawks (fifth), Steelers (sixth), and Jaguars (fourth), completing just 63.8% of his passes with one touchdown and six interceptions.
Packers defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon also gets extra prep time for a New England offense without wide receiver A.J. Brown and possibly missing Mack Hollins, plus TE Hunter Henry. Green Bay limits explosives, forcing Maye to matriculate the ball downfield, where we've already seen him make costly mistakes.
COVERS INTEL: Green Bay's zone-heavy, split-safety defensive approach closely resembles Seattle's defense, which troubled Maye in Week 1. With elite safeties Xavier McKinney and Evan Williams disguising coverages, Maye could face another difficult afternoon.
Packers vs Patriots combo
I expect Green Bay to dictate the terms defensively, but that doesn't mean the Packers need to win outright for me to cash.
New England can move the chains without producing explosive plays, which helps running back Rhamondre Stevenson pile up receiving yards while keeping the game within one possession.
Meanwhile, Green Bay doesn't need a monster offensive performance, either. One well-executed red-zone possession could be enough for tight end Tucker Kraft to find pay dirt.
The beauty of this angle is that I don't need either quarterback to light up the scoreboard. In fact, a relatively ugly, low-scoring game could work perfectly fine for all three legs.
Packers vs Patriots combo
- Green Bay +3.5
- Tucker Kraft anytime touchdown
- Rhamondre Stevenson Over 24.5 receiving yards
Packers vs Patriots touchdown scorer: Tucker Kraft
Tucker Kraft's anytime touchdown prop is good up to 30%.
New England has excellent outside cornerbacks, but the middle of its defense is vulnerable in coverage. Per Pro Football Focus, three of the Patriots' four starting linebackers and safeties have failing coverage grades.
Kraft was enjoying a career year before tearing his ACL around this time last season. He hasn't quite regained that form, but he's still a Pro Bowl-caliber tight end. With New England stronger on the outside than over the middle, I like Kraft's chances of finding the end zone.
- Top picks: 9-14, -5.83 units
- Combos: 4-19, -1.93 units
Packers vs Patriots odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Packers +3.5 | Patriots -3.5
- Over/Under: Over 44.5 (54%) | Under 44.5 (51%)
- Moneyline: Packers 41% | Patriots 64%
For the full slate of NFL matchups, check out our NFL odds board!
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Packers vs Patriots weather
Temperatures in Foxborough on Sunday will be in the mid-50s, with an 11 mph wind and no chance of rain.
Check out our NFL weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
Packers vs Patriots trend to know
Green Bay is 5-0-1 against the spread in its past six games as an underdog. Find more NFL betting trends for Packers vs. Patriots.
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How to watch Packers vs Patriots
| Location | Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Mass. |
| Date | Sunday, Nov. 8, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 4:25 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
Packers vs Patriots latest injuries
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