My college football against-the-spread picks for Week 10 are headlined by Miami's trip to Notre Dame, with Alabama's trip to Baton Rouge and a Holy War between two top-10 teams adding even more intrigue to a loaded slate.
Here's my full breakdown of eight matchups, with the Kalshi price on each pick and my latest college football picks.
Week 10 college football picks against the spread
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| Matchup |  |
|---|---|
 BYU Utah |
-5.5 |
 UCLA Minnesota |
-5.5 |
 Texas Missouri |
-2.5 |
 Alabama LSU |
-4.5 |
 Oregon Ohio State |
+7.5 |
 Kentucky Tennessee |
+6.5 |
 Miami Notre Dame |
+5.5 |
 Georgia Ole Miss |
-3.5 |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Expert Week 10 CFB ATS picks
BYU vs. Utah: Utah -5.5
BYU's erratic play since upsetting No. 2 Notre Dame has me leaning heavily on Utah in this game. The Utes rank seventh in offensive SP+ and can control the game at home with a rushing attack that ranks fifth in the country in yards per carry (5.4) and a time-of-possession percentage that ranks seventh. It's too tall a task for Bear Bachmeier. Lay the points.
UCLA vs. Minnesota: UCLA -5.5
Even without Nico Iamaleava, I trust UCLA's defense to keep the Bruins undefeated and build on this spotless 8-0 ATS record.
Minnesota ranks in the 100s in almost every meaningful offensive statistic, and there won't be much to gain but scraps against a defense that ranks fourth or better in scoring, yards per game, and yards per play. Now's not the time to get off the train.
Texas vs. Missouri: Texas -2.5
Missouri should not be overlooked at home, but with Collin Simmons trending towards playing and Texas leading the nation in yards per play allowed, I expect the Longhorns to control the matchup against Mizzou's offense (37th in offensive SP+ and 53rd in scoring), not put too much on Arch Manning's plate on offense, and escape with a lower-scoring win.
Alabama vs. LSU: LSU -4.5
Trying to predict what version of LSU we get each week is a fool's errand, but the way the Tigers have played in their last two wins is encouraging. That gives me faith against an Alabama team that scored just 10 points against Tennessee the last time it was on the road and could once again be without Ryan Coleman-Williams.
Whatever LSU ends up doing the rest of the way, Baton Rouge remains a sharp pain in the side of its visitors.
Oregon vs. Ohio State: Oregon +7.5
This line instantly dropped from 9.5 down to 7.5 because faith in Ohio State is waning by the day. Even if the Buckeyes moved the ball to the tune of 464 yards against USC, Oregon's defense will be a tougher challenge, and red-zone scoring continues to be an issue for the Buckeyes.
Luke Fahey will be more comfortable in his second start, but I'm not sure that's enough to overcome a 7.5-point spread against a team as talented as Oregon, considering how the defense played on Halloween.
Kentucky vs. Tennessee: Kentucky +6.5
Kentucky is 7-1 ATS on the season and has already won three times outright as a road underdog. Why stop now? Yes, Tennessee's defense will be the best unit on the field, but the margins aren't as big as this 6.5-point spread lets on.
The Vols have no passing offense to speak of and rank 105th in yards per play overall. The Wildcats (31.1 ppg) have the better offense, and it may only take 17 points to keep this within a touchdown.
Miami vs. Notre Dame: Miami +5.5
Miami almost losing to Florida State and UNC in recent weeks isn't scaring me off. For as good as the Irish are on defense, they haven't seen anything close to this Darian Mensah/Malachi Toney pairing, and allowing BYU to score 28 points and go 8-for-12 on third down (Notre Dame is 64th in opponent third-down conversion rate) shows me that it can be gotten by the right team.
This Hurricanes offense is as bankable as anything in the country and should be trusted in a game it's been game-planning for since the season began. I'm taking the points and would do so down to +3.5.
Georgia vs. Ole Miss: Georgia -3.5
I'm happy to throw out Georgia's post-Alabama letdown loss to Auburn. Everything else that's happened points to this being the best team in the country.
I don't expect this Rebels defense, which ranks 59th in yards per play, to have any luck slowing down Gunner Stockton & Co. on Saturday night. Georgia leads the nation in SP+ and is a full 11 points higher than Ole Miss at 13th. Lay the small number.
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