It’s Tuddy time. My college football anytime touchdown picks target five pass catchers with clear scoring roles, including a tight end in one of the Big Ten’s best afternoon games and four receivers facing defenses with exploitable holes.
Louis Brown IV offers the best role-to-price value against one of the nation’s leakiest secondaries, while Andrew Rappleyea is the long shot worth backing in Seattle. Check out all of our college football picks for Week 10.
Best Week 10 college football anytime touchdown picks
For help understanding probabilities, please see our odds calculator.
| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Semaj Morgan |
|
 Braden Pagan |
|
 Louis Brown IV |
|
 DJ Black |
|
 Andrew Rappleyea |
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Pick #1: Semaj Morgan anytime touchdown
Defenses have to start with Wayne Knight and his 12 rushing touchdowns, which leaves room for UCLA’s top target. Semaj Morgan leads the Bruins with 36 catches, 49 targets, and 415 yards, posting 0.48 EPA per target and a 55% success rate.
Minnesota is sturdy against the pass, but its run defense ranks 99th in rushing success rate allowed. If Knight keeps UCLA on schedule, the Bruins will reach scoring range often, and they rank 17th nationally in red-zone success rate.
Morgan has only two touchdowns, which is why his price sits near 3-to-1. For the most targeted receiver on an 8-0 team, that’s a number worth taking.
- Matchup: UCLA vs. Minnesota
- Date/Time: Saturday, Nov. 7 at noon ET
- Location: Huntington Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, Minn.
- TV: FOX
Pick #2: Braden Pegan anytime touchdown
Braden Pegan is Utah’s aerial finisher. He leads the Utes with 39 catches, 505 yards, and six touchdowns, more receiving scores than any two Utah pass catchers combined.
BYU won’t give up much downfield, allowing just 4.97 yards per dropback, seventh nationally. That matters less for Pegan, whose value comes in tight windows near the goal line. The Cougars rank 46th in passing success rate allowed and 52nd in EPA per dropback, so they can be moved methodically.
Utah is 8-0 and favored at home, with Devon Dampier completing 71% of his passes. Dampier and Wayshawn Parker will take some short-yardage scores, but Pegan is the Utes’ most dependable route to six through the air.
- Matchup: BYU vs. Utah
- Date/Time: Saturday, Nov.7 at noon ET
- Location: Rice-Eccles Stadium, Salt Lake City, Utah
- TV: ABC
Pick #3: Louis Brown IV anytime touchdown
Iowa State’s pass defense is one of the most generous in the Big 12. The Cyclones rank 119th in EPA per dropback allowed, 108th in passing success rate, and 121st in yards per dropback allowed.
Louis Brown IV is Baylor’s best way to attack that weakness. He has turned 42 targets into 21 catches, 324 yards, and three touchdowns, posting 0.41 EPA per target. Gavin Freeman draws more volume, but Brown matches him with three scores and comes at a much better price.
DJ Lagway has 13 touchdown passes, and the Bears’ ground game hasn’t been efficient enough to carry the red-zone load. Baylor is a sizable home favorite, so expect Lagway to keep looking downfield.
- Matchup: Iowa State vs. Baylor
- Date/Time: Saturday, Nov. 7 at noon ET
- Location: McLane Stadium, Waco, Texas
- TV: FS1
Pick #4: DJ Black anytime touchdown
Texas A&M’s defense is built to stop the run, ranking 19th in rushing success rate allowed. The problem is what happens through the air. The Aggies allow 7.40 yards per dropback, 108th nationally, which should push South Carolina toward LaNorris Sellers’ arm.
DJ Black is the big-play option in that receiver room. He has 330 yards and two touchdowns on 15 catches, and his 11.38 yards per target is the best mark among South Carolina’s top five pass catchers. Mazeo Bennett Jr. leads the team with four touchdowns, but Black offers a far better price on a similar ceiling.
Sellers has 16 touchdown passes, and South Carolina is a comfortable home favorite.
- Matchup: South Carolina vs. Texas A&M
- Date/Time: Saturday, Nov. 7 at 3 p.m. ET
- Location: Williams-Brice Stadium, Columbia, S.C.
- TV: ESPN
Pick #5: Andrew Rappleyea anytime touchdown
Penn State’s run game hasn’t helped Rocco Becht much. Lead back Carson Hansen is averaging 4.32 yards per carry with a 43% success rate, so the Nittany Lions lean on the pass when drives stall in scoring range.
Andrew Rappleyea is a big part of that plan. The tight end has 28 catches and three touchdowns on 40 targets, a 70% catch rate, and his three scores tie Chase Sowell and Benjamin Brahmer for the team lead.
Washington is solid on the back end overall, but it ranks just 54th in passing success rate allowed. In a game priced close to a coin flip, Rappleyea’s short-area role makes him the long shot worth backing.
- Matchup: Penn State vs. Washington
- Date/Time: Saturday, Nov. 7 at 3:30 p.m. E.T
- Location: Husky Stadium, Seattle, Wash.
- TV: FS1
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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