We've reached the second half of the NFL season, and parity continues to rule the league. My NFL against the spread picks for Week 9 look to take advantage of a market that's still struggling to separate contenders from pretenders.
With the NFL trade deadline approaching, this week's NFL picks focus on teams getting too much respect from the market, along with a few underdogs capable of keeping things close.
NFL picks against the spread for Week 9
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| Matchup |  |
|---|---|
 Jaguars vs  Ravens |
-9.5 |
 Bengals vs  Falcons |
-3.5 |
 Browns vs  Saints |
-2.5 |
 Giants vs  Eagles |
-3.5 |
 Broncos vs  Panthers |
+2.5 |
 Jets vs  Chiefs |
-9.5 |
 Cowboys vs  Colts |
-5.5 |
 Lions vs  Dolphins |
+7.5 |
 Rams vs  Commanders |
+5.5 |
 Texans vs  Chargers |
+5.5 |
 Packers vs  Patriots |
+3.5 |
 Raiders vs  49ers |
-9.5 |
 Cardinals vs  Seahawks |
+11.5 |
 Buccaneers vs  Bears |
-6.5 |
 Bills vs  Vikings |
-3.5 |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Expert Week 9 NFL ATS picks
Jaguars vs Ravens: Jaguars (9.5)
Baltimore will start undrafted rookie Joe Fagnano after injuries to Lamar Jackson and Tyler Huntley. Fagnano managed just 91 passing yards and threw an interception against Buffalo.
Jacksonville is averaging 28 points per game and just hammered the Colts 42-7. Even on the road, the Jaguars should have enough offense to cover against a team scrambling at quarterback.
Check out our full Jaguars vs. Ravens predictions!
Bengals vs Falcons: Bengals (-3.5)
Joe Burrow just threw for 462 yards in Cincinnati's overtime win, and the Bengals enter this Madrid matchup averaging 29.4 points per game. Atlanta, meanwhile, was shut out by Tampa Bay as Michael Penix Jr. threw four interceptions.
Bijan Robinson is a threat, but the Bengals' passing attack has enough firepower to win by more than a field goal.
Browns vs Saints: Saints (-2.5)
New Orleans is fresh off its bye and has a better offense than its record suggests. The Saints average 23.1 points per game, compared with just 17.4 for Cleveland.
The Browns also struggle to sustain drives, converting roughly 32% of third downs, and to make matters worse(?), Sheduer Sanders is expected to get the start as Deshaun Watson has been placed in concussion protocol.
At home, New Orleans doesn't need a blowout; a field-goal victory gets us there.
Giants vs Eagles: Giants (-3.5)
The Eagles are 0-3 with Tanner McKee under center, scoring just 45 points across his three starts. Philadelphia managed only 10 points against Washington last week and ranks 30th in scoring at 17.1 per game.
The Giants come off a bye with extra time to prepare, and I like their chances of exploiting Philadelphia's offensive struggles.
Broncos vs. Panthers: Panthers (+2.5)
Carolina has extra rest after playing last Thursday, and its offense has been more productive than Denver's. The Panthers average 25.4 points per game to the Broncos' 21.5, while Denver has injury concerns at both safety spots.
Carolina's offensive line is an issue, but the letdown spot is real after the Broncos beat the Chiefs on Sunday. I'll take the home underdog.
Jets vs Chiefs: Chiefs (-9.5)
Kansas City is coming off a loss to Denver, but the defense remains a major advantage against the Jets. The Chiefs allow just 18.7 points per game, fourth best in the NFL, while New York has only two wins.
Patrick Mahomes doesn't need a perfect afternoon if Kansas City's defense forces long fields and limits the Jets' scoring chances.
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Cowboys vs Colts: Cowboys (-5.5)
Indianapolis just got thrashed 42-7 by Jacksonville and is giving up 27.8 points per game. That's a favorable matchup for Dak Prescott and a Dallas offense averaging 27.4 points, even with the Cowboys' own defensive concerns.
The Colts are also in the middle of a fire sale, so morale can't be high. I'll trust Dallas to do enough damage offensively to cover.
Lions vs Dolphins: Dolphins (+7.5)
Detroit is clearly the better team, but its injury list makes laying nearly a touchdown uncomfortable. Linebacker Jack Campbell left last week's game with a neck injury, while Brian Branch and DJ Wonnum entered concussion protocol.
Miami stayed within five points of New England last week. If Malik Willis can avoid turnovers, the Dolphins can keep this close.
Rams vs Commanders: Commanders (+5.5)
Washington just held Philadelphia to 10 points in a 27-10 win, and now gets a Rams team carrying significant injury concerns.
Matthew Stafford's arm is worth watching, while Davante Adams remains sidelined. The Rams also have defensive absences.
With Jayden Daniels at home and nearly a touchdown in hand, I'll back the Commanders to hang around.
Texans vs Chargers: Chargers (+5.5)
The Chargers are winless, but Houston is only 2-5 and hasn't earned the benefit of the doubt as a sizable road favorite.
The Texans allow 24.3 points per game, giving Justin Herbert a chance to move the ball if his battered line holds up.
I don't need Los Angeles to win, just to stay within one score.
Packers vs Patriots: Packers (+3.5)
Both teams enter at 5-3, and their defenses are nearly identical in points allowed: 20.5 for Green Bay and 20.3 for New England.
The Packers also get extra rest after playing Thursday, while the Patriots have injuries at key receiving spots.
With Jordan Love playing well, taking more than a field goal in this matchup makes sense.
Raiders vs 49ers: 49ers (-9.5)
San Francisco comes off a bye averaging 28.1 points per game, and gets a Raiders defense allowing 28.8, one of the worst marks in football.
The 49ers could also welcome back key offensive contributors, with Christian McCaffrey's status worth monitoring. Las Vegas can score, but this is a favorable spot for San Francisco to build a double-digit lead.
Cardinals vs Seahawks: Cardinals (+11.5)
Gardner Minshew earned Arizona's starting job after leading four straight touchdown drives in the comeback win over Dallas.
Seattle, meanwhile, is coming off a 34-17 Monday night loss to Chicago and has a shorter week to prepare.
The Seahawks crushed Arizona earlier this season, but 11.5 points is a lot to give a Cardinals offense showing new life.
Buccaneers vs Bears: Bears (-6.5)
Chicago just beat Seattle 34-17 and ranks eighth in the NFL in both scoring offense and scoring defense. Caleb Williams has the Bears moving the ball, and D'Andre Swift scored three rushing touchdowns Monday.
Tampa Bay's defense is dangerous, but the Buccaneers have their own injuries. I'll back Chicago's balance to deliver a touchdown victory at home.
Bills vs Vikings: Bills (-3.5)
This is the league's best scoring offense against its stingiest defense: Buffalo averages 33.3 points, while Minnesota allows 13.3. The difference is what happens when the Vikings have the ball.
They average only 20 points per game, and Kyler Murray is dealing with a hamstring issue. I'll trust Josh Allen to create enough separation to cover.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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