College Football Top 25 Predictions Week 10: Watchability Ratings & Best Bets

For the first time this season, there are College Football Playoff rankings as we head into the biggest Saturday slate of the entire year.

With seven ranked matchups, including five between teams ranked in the top 15, my Week 10 college football Top 25 predictions feature more must-watch games than any other Saturday this season.

From Miami and Notre Dame's rematch to the Holy War and the Saban Bowl, my CFP Top 25 college football picks for Week 10 break down all 16 games involving ranked programs.

College football Top 25 predictions & watchability ratings: Week 10

(Confidence legend: 🟢 = high, 🟡 = medium, ⚪ = low)

For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.

Matchup	Watch Rating	Pick	Probability
Miami vs. Notre Dame	5/5	+7.5 ⚪	53%
BYU vs. Utah	5/5	-4.5 🟡	52%
Alabama vs. LSU	5/5	-5.5 🟡	51%
Georgia vs. Ole Miss	5/5	-3.5 🟢	50%
Kentucky vs.  Tennessee	4/5	-6.5 🟡	51%
Texas vs. Missouri	4/5	+2.5 ⚪	49%
Oregon vs. Ohio State	4/5	-7.5 🟡	50%
Iowa vs. Northwestern	3/5	-2.5 🟡	51%
UCLA vs. Minnesota	3/5	-5.5 🟡	49%
Oklahoma vs. Florida	3/5	+6.5 🟡	49%
Cincinnati vs. Houston	3/5	-10.5 ⚪	49%
Texas A&M vs. South Carolina	3/5	+7.5 🟡	54%
West Virginia vs. Texas Tech	2/5	-16.5 🟢	51%
TCU vs. Arizona	2/5	-8.5 🟡	49%
Boise State vs. Colorado State	1/5	-16.5 🟡	54%
Merrimack vs. Wake Forest	1/5	-47.5 🟡	48%

Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps. 

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Tier 1 watchability for Week 10 (must-watch)

Miami (1) vs Notre Dame (11)

• Game info: Saturday, Nov. 7 | 7:30 p.m. ET | NBC
• ATS pick: Miami +7.5 ⚪
• ML pick: Notre Dame (71%) 🟡
• Over/Under pick: Over 55.5 ⚪

This is one of the most important games of the college football season, and maybe the most important. Not just because Miami beat Notre Dame 27-24 last season to reignite one of the sport's best rivalries from the 1980s, but as I detailed in my Week 10 Heisman Trophy predictions, this game will have a massive impact on the race for college football's most prestigious honor.

Even with the news that one of the Heisman Trophy odds-favorites, Malachi Toney, isn't playing due to an ankle injury suffered in practice, I like the Hurricanes to cover +6.5 or better on the road.

While Toney is the second-best player in the sport behind only Jeremiah Smith, Miami still has the advantage with its offensive weapons, and Notre Dame is down two starters in its secondary.

Darian Mensah, who leads the country in QBR (90.3) and adjusted completion percentage (86.2%), boasts a top-notch running back duo and an all-conference-caliber No. 2 wide receiver (Cooper Barkate).

With Shannon Dawson calling plays for an offense that ranks No. 1 nationally in net adjusted EPA per play and No. 2 in success rate (52.4%), Miami can keep this game close against a Notre Dame defense that ranks 38th in pass success rate (41%).

The key will be slowing down CJ Carr on the other side, but in Notre Dame's only other game this season against a ranked opponent (BYU), the Fighting Irish lost outright as a 10.5-point favorite. They followed that loss up with an ugly first half against Navy last week.

Against an offense as potent as Miami's, Notre Dame can't afford a slow start, especially with a loss potentially ending the program's chance at the College Football Playoff.

BYU (9) vs Utah (3)

• Game info: Saturday, Nov. 7 | noon ET | ABC
• ATS pick: Utah -4.5 🟡 
• ML pick: Utah (64%) 🟡 
• Over/Under pick: Over 48.5 🟡 

One of college football's most underrated rivalries, this year's Holy War is the most significant the Beehive State has ever seen. For the first time in the BYU vs. Utah rivalry, both programs are ranked in the top 10.

This game will have massive College Football Playoff and Big 12 Championship ramifications, and while Utah hasn't beaten BYU since 2019, I like Morgan Scalley to end the drought in Year 1 as the Utes' head coach. But whether BYU star running back LJ Martin will play is a lingering question.

Martin hasn't suited up since Oct. 3, and there's a chance he returns for the Holy War. If he does play, I only like Utah up to -4.5. But if he's out, I would take the Utes to cover as much as -6.5 at home.

Utah is 7-1 ATS this season and catching BYU at an ideal time. The Cougars have ridden a roller coaster the last few weeks, upsetting No. 2 Notre Dame, being upset in double OT by UCF, and then blowing a 17-3 lead to Arizona State last week before narrowly earning a win.

Inconsistent play like that won't cut it against a Utah defense ranked top 20 nationally in points allowed per opportunity (2.70), success rate (39.4%), and third/fourth-down success rate (37.7%).

BYU can't ask Bear Bachmeier to carry it the way he's needed to in recent weeks when Devon Dampier is on the other side leading a run game that's 19th in the country in EPA per rush and poised to capitalize on a Cougars defense sitting 74th in rush success rate (45%). 

Alabama (5) vs LSU (14)

• Game info: Saturday, Nov. 7 | 3:30 p.m. ET | ABC
• ATS pick: LSU -5.5 🟡 
• ML pick: LSU (67%) 🟡 
• Over/Under pick: Under 53.5 🟡 

Alabama is attempting to beat LSU for the fourth straight time in the Saban Bowl, and the third straight since Nick Saban retired. However, the Tigers have one of Saban's former coordinators leading them on the first Saturday in November, and while Lane Kiffin is known for his offenses, the team's defense can be the difference-maker.

Despite the CFP committee ranking them fifth, the Crimson Tide have been struggling in recent weeks, losing two of their last three games and not finding consistency on offense against quality defenses. Meanwhile, LSU has outscored its last two SEC opponents 69-17 and can cover up to -6.5 in Death Valley against the Tide.

LSU boasts a wildly disruptive defense, ranking fourth nationally in havoc rate (22.2%) and second in sacks (34). With the Crimson Tide's offensive line issues and lack of consistent playmakers, there will be too much on Keelon Russell's plate against the Tigers.

Alabama is averaging just 13.5 points per game against a defense ranked top 20 by SP+, and LSU is ranked sixth. So, Sam Leavitt and LSU's offense might only need a couple of scoring drives to cover.

Leavitt has been playing his best football of the season lately, too, and he ranks fourth nationally in QBR (85.3) and 12th in adjusted completion percentage (79.5%). He should get after an Alabama defense that's slipped to 78th in pass success rate (44.3%).

Georgia (2) vs Ole Miss (10)

• Game info: Saturday, Nov. 7 | 7:30 p.m. ET | ABC
• ATS pick: Georgia -3.5 🟢 
• ML pick: Georgia (62%) 🟡 
• Over/Under pick: Under 56.5 ⚪ 

Georgia and Ole Miss gave us two of the most entertaining games of the season last year, with the Bulldogs winning 43-35 in the regular season and the Rebels winning 39-34 in the CFP quarterfinal at the Sugar Bowl.

This year, I don't think we'll see nearly as many points, but I do think we'll continue to witness the trend of these teams rotating wins. With Kirby Smart's defense playing at an elite level, I like Georgia to cover up to -6.5 on the road.

Last week against Florida in the indoor edition of the World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party, the Bulldogs reminded everyone why they should be atop the college football national championship odds with a dominant performance from the No. 2-ranked defense by SP+.

The last time Ole Miss played a top defense, Trinidad Chambliss couldn't put on the Superman cape, and the Rebels lost to Texas. Similar to the Longhorns, the Bulldogs are explosive, massive, and relentless, ranking top 20 nationally in available yards percentage (33.5%), havoc rate (19.4%), and success rate allowed (35.2%).

If Ole Miss can't score, it won't win this game because its defense cannot be trusted. The Rebels' defense ranks outside the top 30 in both pass success rate (39.7%) and rush success rate (43.4%), and Gunner Stockton tends to cash in on quality drives. Georgia is third in the country in points per opportunity (4.91).

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Tier 2 watchability for Week 10 (worth watching)

Kentucky (6) vs Tennessee (13)

• Game info: Saturday, Nov. 7 | 6:15 p.m. ET | ESPN
• ATS pick: Tennessee -6.5 🟡
• ML pick: Tennessee (66%) 🟢 
• Over/Under pick: Under 50.5 🟡 

The Tennessee fanbase isn't happy that an Alabama team their Volunteers smoked, pun intended, is ranked top five, and their team isn't even in the CFP playoff picture at No. 13. But can Josh Heupel put an end to Kentucky's winning streak? I think so.

The cardiac Wildcats have used their nine lives, winning three of their last four SEC games by a combined 10 points. On the road against their border rival, whom they've played since 1893, I like the Vols to cover up to -8.5.

Tennessee's front seven versus Kentucky's offensive line is where this matchup will be won, and I give the advantage to the Jim Knowles side of the ball. With potential top-10 pick Xavier Gilliam leading the way, the Vols' defense ranks first nationally in sacks (35), third in havoc rate (22.7%), and 16th in net adjusted EPA per play.

Kenny Minchey won't be comfortable against this defense, and his own defense will have a heck of a time trying to stop DeSean Bishop. Tennessee's offense is fifth in the country in EPA per rush, and the Cats' defense is 78th in rush success rate (45.2%).

Texas (7) vs Missouri (18)

• Game info: Saturday, Nov. 7 | noon ET | ESPN
• ATS pick: Missouri +2.5 ⚪ 
• ML pick: Texas (56%) ⚪ 
• Over/Under pick: Over 43.5 🟡 

It's hard to get a strong feel for either of these teams. Texas beat Ole Miss, but it's also 0-2 ATS when not in Austin. Ole Miss blew out Missouri on the road, but it also hammered the Florida team that beat the Longhorns.

With the Tigers at home, I like them to cover +2.5 or better because of their defense. Texas' offensive line has been troublesome all season and is now without left tackle Trevor Goosby, which will be a problem against a Missouri defense that's 15th in the country in havoc rate (19.5%).

Arch Manning continues to be an enigma, and he makes mistakes when pressured. Manning is tied for the 10th-most turnover-worthy plays in the country (13) and has put up one of the highest pressure-to-sack rates in the Power Four (27.8%).

Covering, though, will come down to Austin Simmons moving the ball against a strong Texas defense. Simmons boasts one of the best arms in the nation, and one of the top pass-protecting O-lines in the country is in front of him (allows 5.1 pressures per game). If he has time to hit big plays, Missouri can keep it close.

Oregon (23) vs Ohio State (12)

• Game info: Saturday, Nov. 7 | 3:30 p.m. ET | CBS
• ATS pick: Ohio State -7.5 🟡 
• ML pick: Ohio State (72%) 🟢 
• Over/Under pick: Under 45.5 🟡 

The backup QB bowl could be sneaky fun with Ohio State playing for its College Football Playoff life, while Oregon tries to ride the momentum of being ranked into another win over a Top 25 team. 

While these programs had very different experiences on the West Coast last week, I like Ryan Day's program to cover -8.5 or better with the Buckeyes back in the Midwest.

The Ducks' comeback win against Northwestern in Week 9 was impressive and gave Oregon hope with Dylan Raiola, but he's been a different QB both on the road and against quality defenses.

In his lone start against a defense ranked top 10 by SP+ (UCLA), Raiola committed three turnover-worthy plays, accounted for zero touchdowns, and had a 33.3% adjusted completion percentage. In his only road start against Illinois, Oregon scored 10 points. The Ducks failed to cover in both those games. 

With Ohio State at home and its defense ranked No. 3 by SP+, the Buckeyes can rebound from the loss to USC. That was Luke Fahey's first career start, and Day's team even finished with a higher net success rate than the Trojans. 

Tier 3 watchability for Week 10 (interesting)

Iowa (19) vs Northwestern

• Game info: Saturday, Nov. 7 | 7:30 p.m. ET | FOX
• ATS pick: Northwestern -2.5 🟡 
• ML pick: Northwestern (55%) 🟡
• Over/Under pick: Under 45.5 🟡 

Iowa is coming off one of its most impressive offensive performances in years, but I'm not sure it can keep up with what Chip Kelly has been cooking. Northwestern's offense has been must-watch TV, and I trust David Braun to have his Wildcats ready to rebound at home in their new $800-million stadium. I like the Cats to cover up to -3.5.

Aidan Chiles has played his way into the top-100 pick conversation, and he gives Northwestern the clear advantage at QB while ranking 20th nationally in QBR (81.0) and total TDs (23). Chiles and Griffin Wilde will push an Iowa pass defense that's been shaky (88th in EPA per pass). 

And the Hawkeyes' inability to run the ball on offense will be the death of it against a Northwestern defense that's been far more competent at stopping the pass (39th in EPA per pass). Iowa ranks 118th in the country in EPA per rush this season.

This pick is contingent on Chiles playing though, and he's listed as questionable on the initial Big Ten injury report.

UCLA (8) vs Minnesota

• Game info: Saturday, Nov. 7 | noon ET | FOX
• ATS pick: UCLA -5.5 🟡 
• ML pick: UCLA (66%) 🟢 
• Over/Under pick: Under 38.5 ⚪

Minnesota is one of the hardest teams in the country to understand. One week Purdue steamrolls the Golden Gophers, and the next they upset Iowa. After last week's heartbreaking OT loss to Indiana, this is a huge letdown spot for Minnesota.

This UCLA team is undefeated, but just faced disrespect from the CFP committee. Bob Chesney will certainly use that to motivate the only team in the country that's 8-0 ATS, which is why I like the Bruins at -6.5 or better.

Even with backup QB Ty Dieffenbach, UCLA has continued to roll over opponents, thanks to its run game and defense. The Bruins are top 25 nationally in rush success rate (48.5%), and their defense is maybe the best in the sport.

UCLA ranks top 10 in havoc rate (21.2%), available yards percentage (30.9%), early-down EPA per play, and third/fourth down success rate (32%). Minnesota's offense might not score 10+ points.

Oklahoma vs Florida (24)

• Game info: Saturday, Nov. 7 | 7:45 p.m. ET | SEC Network
• ATS pick: Oklahoma +6.5 🟡 
• ML pick: Florida (68%) ⚪
• Over/Under pick: Under 46.5 🟡 

Nobody knows which Florida squad is coming to play on Saturday. Will it be the Gators team that upset Ole Miss and Texas? Or will it be the one that Missouri, South Carolina, and Georgia demolished? I think it will land somewhere in between, so I like Oklahoma to cover +5.5 or better.

The Sooners finally fired Ben Arbuckle, which could lead to a dead-cat bounce for this offense, especially with how poor Florida's defense has been this season. Florida's defense ranks 124th nationally in success rate (48.8%) and 130th in third/fourth down success rate (54.3%).

Do I trust John Mateer? Not really, but if he can lead his team to scoring 20+ points, OU can cover. The Sooners still boast one of the top defenses in the country while ranking third in success rate (35.6%), and Florida's QB and offensive line play have been underwhelming. 

Cincinnati vs Houston (17)

• Game info: Saturday, Nov. 7 | 3:30 p.m. ET | FOX
• ATS pick: Houston -10.5 ⚪ 
• ML pick: Houston (79%) 🟢 
• Over/Under pick: Under 63.5 🟡 

Over its last three games, Cincinnati lost on a walk-off field goal to West Virginia, upset No. 8 Texas Tech, and Utah beat the Bearcats so badly they were losing 42-6 at halftime. Now the Bearcats go on the road to play one of the best offenses in the country. Give me Houston at -10.5 or better.

Cincinnati is too all over the place to trust and was 1-3 against the spread in October. The Cougars haven't played since Oct. 24 and should be well rested and ready to light up a Bearcats defense that's ranked 120th in success rate (48.1%).

Willie Fritz's team has been an offensive juggernaut this season. The Cougars lead the country in offensive success rate (53.1%), and Conner Weigman is top 10 in TD passes (20) and QBR (83.4).

If Houston builds a lead, Cincinnati's run-first offense won't be able to throw its way back into the game.

Texas A&M vs South Carolina (21)

• Game info: Saturday, Nov. 7 | 3 p.m. ET | ESPN
• ATS pick: Texas A&M +7.5 🟡 
• ML pick: South Carolina (70%) 🟢 
• Over/Under pick: Over 51.5 🟡 

South Carolina was so hot last month that Gamecocks fans were calling it Cocktober after they won three straight SEC games. And while LaNorris Sellers and South Carolina have looked like a completely different team recently, this spread is too large. 

The Gamecocks don't match up that well with this Texas A&M team, and coming off a bye, the Aggies can cover +6.5 or better on the road. South Carolina has been leaning on its run game with Sellers, but Texas A&M's defense excels at stopping the run, ranking 19th nationally in rush success rate (38.4%). 

Though the Aggies' offense has been sporadic with Marcel Reed, it's not as if South Carolina's defense has been that impressive this season. The Gamecocks' defense ranks 118th in success rate and allows the second-most points per opportunity in the SEC (4.15). 

Tier 4 watchability for Week 10 (blowout brewing)

West Virginia vs Texas Tech (15)

• Game info: Saturday, Nov. 7 | 9:30 p.m. ET | ESPN
• ATS pick: Texas Tech -16.5 🟢 
• ML pick: Texas Tech (87%) 🟢 
• Over/Under pick: Under 65.5 🟡 

In Rich Rodriguez's second stint in Morgantown, he's made West Virginia fun again by trying to recreate the magic of Pat White and Steve Slaton with Michael Hawkins Jr. and Cam Cook. As a result, the Mountaineers are top 10 in the country in EPA per rush. But that doesn't matter because they field arguably the worst defense in the Power Four.

With Texas Tech finding a spark on offense through QB Thomas Castellanos, the Red Raiders can cover up to -20.5 at home against West Virginia. The Mountaineers rank 130th nationally in defensive success rate (49.9%) and 127th in points allowed per game (32.2).

Tech also trots out a defense ranked ninth in rush success rate (36.4%), with the best linebacker trio in the country leading the way.

TCU vs Arizona (22)

• Game info: Friday, Nov. 6 | 10:15 p.m. ET | ESPN
• ATS pick: Arizona -8.5 🟡 
• ML pick: Arizona (75%) 🟢 
• Over/Under pick: Over 43.5 🟡 

It was a tough showing for Arizona down the stretch last week against Texas Tech, but the Wildcats now get a perfect get-right game at home against a TCU team that's been among the most disappointing in the Big 12. Though the Horned Frogs managed a comeback win last week, they're 1-5 ATS versus Power Four opponents.

TCU has a completely one-dimensional offense while ranking 135th nationally in EPA per rush, which is great for an Arizona defense ranked top 25 in pass success rate (38.6%). 

It might be an ugly game, but Noah Fifita is one of the best QBs in college football, ranking 12th in QBR (81.3). He should eventually contribute enough to his team pulling away and covering up to -9.5.

Tier 5 watchability for Week 10 (it's still football)

Boise State (25) vs Colorado State

• Game info: Saturday, Nov. 7 | 6 p.m. ET | USA Network
• ATS pick: Boise State -16.5 🟡 
• ML pick: Boise State (88%) 🟢 
• Over/Under pick: Under 68.5 🟡 

Boise State just won an insane Pac-12 After Dark game against Texas State in which it blew a 28-3 halftime lead and had to come back from down double digits with its backup QB to win 46-45. Luckily for the Broncos, Colorado State is enduring an even more insane season under Jim Mora Jr.

Beyond the whole defensive coordinator quitting and/or being fired at halftime fiasco, the Rams are 1-3 ATS since the start of October. So even if Boise State QB Maddux Madsen is out, I trust backup Max Cutforth to build on last week's magic and cover up to -17.5.

Merrimack vs Wake Forest (16)

• Game info: Saturday, Nov. 7 | 3:30 p.m. ET | ACC Network
• ATS pick: Wake Forest -47.5 🟡 
• ML pick: Wake Forest (99%) 🟢 
• Over/Under pick: Over 58.5 🟡 

Not only is Wake Forest the lone ranked P4 team not playing a P4 opponent this week, but the Demon Deacons aren't even facing an FBS opponent. FBS teams have been destroying FCS teams this year, and despite star QB Gio Lopez potentially missing this game, Wake can cover -48.5 or better.

Merrimack has played one FBS team this season, losing 42-7 against Delaware. The Fightin' Blue Hens are ranked 108th by SP+, and Wake sits 16th.

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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