Miami (FL) vs Notre Dame Picks & Props
MIA vs ND Picks
NCAAF PicksMiami almost losing to Florida State and UNC in recent weeks isn't scaring me off. For as good as the Irish are on defense, they haven't seen anything close to this Darian Mensah/Malachi Toney pairing, and allowing BYU to score 28 points and go 8-for-12 on third down (Notre Dame is 64th in opponent third-down conversion rate) shows me that it can be gotten by the right team. This Hurricanes offense is as bankable as anything in the country and should be trusted in a game it's been game-planning for since the season began. I'm taking the points and would do so down to +3.5.
Neither of these programs looked their best last week, but I like Miami to cover +6.5 or better due to its advantage with its playmakers (even with Malachi Toney out). CJ Carr and Darian Mensah are arguably the two best QBs in college football this year, but Mensah's offense is ranked No. 1 in net adjusted EPA per play and No. 2 in success rate (52.4%) because of who he has around him. In the biggest game of the season for these teams, I expect a close game.
While Malachi Toney won't be out there, I still like the Over at 55.5 or better. These are the two most efficient QBs in college football this season, with Darian Mensah leading the country in QBR (90.3) and CJ Carr ranking eighth (82.6). Miami's pass defense has been questionable, too, ranking 110th in EPA per dropback.
Miami has allowed 29 receptions of 20+ yards this season and ranks 124th in EPA per pass and 125th in passing success rate over its last four games. ND has been prepping for this matchup for ages, and future NFL starter CJ Carr will shred in a favorable matchup.
Malachi Toney is Miami's best player, but even without him, I like the Canes to go Over their team total at 23.5 or better. Miami's offense leads the country in net adjusted EPA per play and Notre Dame allowed 28 points to a BYU team without its best offensive player (LJ Martin).
Even without Malachi Toney, Miami has the offensive firepower to keep this game close with Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish have gotten off to slow starts in three of their last four games. If that happens against Darian Mensah and this Miami offense, which leads the country in pass success rate (59.2%), the Canes have the talent to take advantage.
MIA vs ND Consensus Picks
MIA vs ND Props
| GAME & PLAYER PROPS | PROJECTIONS | ANALYSIS | BEST ODDS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
PASSING YARDS
ND
C. Carr
(QB)
o239.5 Passing Yards
257.85 OVER
PROJECTION
+18.3
DIFFERENCE
23.62%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING YARDS
D. Mensah
(QB)
o224.5 Passing Yards
241.44 OVER
PROJECTION
+16.9
DIFFERENCE
23.3%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
ND
N. James Jr.
(RB)
u74.5 Rushing Yards
58.42 UNDER
PROJECTION
-16.1
DIFFERENCE
25.32%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
ND
C. Carr
(QB)
u7.5 Rushing Yards
3.48 UNDER
PROJECTION
-4.0
DIFFERENCE
25.21%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
MIA
M. Fletcher Jr.
(RB)
u64.5 Rushing Yards
54.30 UNDER
PROJECTION
-10.2
DIFFERENCE
25.15%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
ND
J. Walton
(RB)
o43.5 Rushing Yards
50.56 OVER
PROJECTION
+7.1
DIFFERENCE
20.61%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
MIA
J. Mallory
(RB)
o41.5 Rushing Yards
45.85 OVER
PROJECTION
+4.4
DIFFERENCE
16.56%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
ND
J. Greathouse
(WR)
o39.5 Receiving Yards
53.81 OVER
PROJECTION
+14.3
DIFFERENCE
26.88%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
ND
M. Gilbert
(WR)
o34.5 Receiving Yards
44.25 OVER
PROJECTION
+9.8
DIFFERENCE
25.85%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
MIA
E. Lofton
(TE)
u40.5 Receiving Yards
28.67 UNDER
PROJECTION
-11.8
DIFFERENCE
25.85%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
ND
J. Faison
(WR)
o59.5 Receiving Yards
72.80 OVER
PROJECTION
+13.3
DIFFERENCE
25.27%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
ND
J. Larsen
(TE)
o13.5 Receiving Yards
23.48 OVER
PROJECTION
+10.0
DIFFERENCE
24.48%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
MIA
M. Fletcher Jr.
(RB)
o10.5 Receiving Yards
12.78 OVER
PROJECTION
+2.3
DIFFERENCE
24.36%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
MIA
C. Barkate
(WR)
u55.5 Receiving Yards
52.70 UNDER
PROJECTION
-2.8
DIFFERENCE
22.83%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
MIA
D. Upshaw
(WR)
u44.5 Receiving Yards
40.30 UNDER
PROJECTION
-4.2
DIFFERENCE
20.44%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
MIA
E. Lofton
(TE)
u3.5 Receptions
2.59 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.9
DIFFERENCE
23.36%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
MIA
D. Upshaw
(WR)
u3.5 Receptions
3.00 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.5
DIFFERENCE
20.89%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
MIA
C. Barkate
(WR)
u4.5 Receptions
3.62 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.9
DIFFERENCE
20.82%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
ND
J. Greathouse
(WR)
u3.5 Receptions
3.16 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.3
DIFFERENCE
14.52%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
ND
M. Gilbert
(WR)
u3.5 Receptions
2.86 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.6
DIFFERENCE
8.01%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
ND
J. Faison
(WR)
o4.5 Receptions
5.23 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.7
DIFFERENCE
2.26%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
MIA
M. Fletcher Jr.
(RB)
o1.5 Receptions
1.55 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
-12.99%
EV
|
|||||||
|
CARRIES
ND
N. James Jr.
(RB)
u14.5 Carries
12.18 UNDER
PROJECTION
-2.3
DIFFERENCE
18.28%
EV
|
|||||||
|
CARRIES
MIA
J. Mallory
(RB)
o9.5 Carries
9.90 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.4
DIFFERENCE
-18.17%
EV
|
|||||||
|
COMPLETIONS
ND
C. Carr
(QB)
u20.5 Completions
19.73 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.8
DIFFERENCE
1.18%
EV
|
|||||||
|
COMPLETIONS
D. Mensah
(QB)
o20.5 Completions
20.69 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.2
DIFFERENCE
-4.07%
EV
|
|||||||
- Proj. Diff: Low to High
- Proj. Diff: High to Low
- Proj. Rating: Low to High
- Proj. Rating: High to Low
- +EV: Low to High
- +EV: High to Low
Recent Form Trends
Over is 5-0 in Hurricanes last 5 games overall.
Over is 5-0 in Fighting Irish last 5 games following a straight up loss.
Over is 5-0 in Hurricanes last 5 games as a favorite.
Over is 6-0 in Hurricanes last 6 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Over is 5-0 in Hurricanes last 5 games following a straight up win.
Home team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
Over is 4-0 in Fighting Irish last 4 vs. ACC.
Hurricanes are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog.