Florida vs Kentucky Picks & Props
FLA vs UK Picks
NCAAF PicksMy power ratings make Florida just a 0.5-point underdog, the biggest disparity of the week. Both teams have a +0.5 yards-per-play margin on the season and have played similarly difficult schedules. Florida is slightly better in yards-per-game and scoring margins. That shouldn’t equate to a 3.5-point spread, even when factoring in home-field advantage. I’m buying low on Florida after back-to-back double-digit losses to Georgia and Oklahoma. The last time the Gators were coming off consecutive losses this season, they upset Texas on the road as double-digit underdogs. Finally, I wonder what this spread would look like if Kentucky hadn’t converted those two 2-point attempts in overtime against South Carolina and LSU to win those games. If the Wildcats were 5-4 instead of 7-2, I’m guessing this line would be closer to a pick’em.
I like Kentucky to cover -4.5 or better at home. Florida has been bad more often than it's been good this season, and losing by 16 to Oklahoma at home as 6.5-point favorite last week was rock bottom. The Wildcats defense ranks 21st in havoc rate (18.9%) and can take advantage of Florida's O-line. And Kentucky's offensive line should bully a Florida defense allowing 27.6 ppg.
With Florida's defensive woes, I like the Over at 52.5 or better. The Gators are ranked 122nd in defensive success rate (48.2%) and are allowing 32.4 points per game in SEC play. But Kentucky has defensive issues of its own, ranking 84th in rush success rate (45.7%). This could be a big game for Florida running back Jadan Baugh.
Some may view last week's ugly loss to Tennessee as a letdown spot, but I think it was more regression to the mean after how fortunate the Wildcats have been this season. Prior to last week, Kentucky had won six straight games, including two overtime victories and four outright wins as an underdog.
Florida catching four points feels like a lot, and the Gators should be able to keep this one interesting.
With Florida allowing 32.4 points per game in SEC play, I would play Kentucky's TT Over at 28.5 or better. The Wildcats have a massive advantage in the trenches with their O-line, so Kenny Minchey should have plenty of time against a Gators defense ranked 101st in EPA per dropback.
Florida has been getting off to ugly starts in SEC play. The Gators have trailed by 6+ points at halftime in five straight games. They've lost and failed to cover in four of those five games, and yet another QB change won't save them against a Kentucky team that has strong trench play on both sides of the ball.
FLA vs UK Consensus Picks
FLA vs UK Props
| GAME & PLAYER PROPS | PROJECTIONS | ANALYSIS | BEST ODDS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
PASSING YARDS
UK
K. Minchey
(QB)
o220.5 Passing Yards
227.92 OVER
PROJECTION
+7.4
DIFFERENCE
13.75%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
UK
C. Baxter
(RB)
u72.5 Rushing Yards
66.56 UNDER
PROJECTION
-5.9
DIFFERENCE
19.41%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
FLA
J. Baugh
(RB)
u84.5 Rushing Yards
80.77 UNDER
PROJECTION
-3.7
DIFFERENCE
14.89%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
UK
K. Minchey
(QB)
o9.5 Rushing Yards
9.53 PUSH
PROJECTION
0.0
DIFFERENCE
-8.48%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
FLA
E. Singleton Jr.
(WR)
o29.5 Receiving Yards
40.00 OVER
PROJECTION
+10.5
DIFFERENCE
26.64%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
FLA
B. Stockton
(WR)
o33.5 Receiving Yards
41.24 OVER
PROJECTION
+7.7
DIFFERENCE
25.05%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
UK
W. Rodriguez
(TE)
o45.5 Receiving Yards
53.32 OVER
PROJECTION
+7.8
DIFFERENCE
24.78%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
FLA
L. Dippre
(TE)
o7.5 Receiving Yards
12.33 OVER
PROJECTION
+4.8
DIFFERENCE
23.73%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
FLA
D. Wilson
(WR)
u54.5 Receiving Yards
52.26 UNDER
PROJECTION
-2.2
DIFFERENCE
10.6%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
FLA
E. Singleton Jr.
(WR)
o2.5 Receptions
3.44 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.9
DIFFERENCE
21.52%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
FLA
J. Baugh
(RB)
u1.5 Receptions
1.21 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.3
DIFFERENCE
20.49%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
UK
W. Rodriguez
(TE)
u4.5 Receptions
4.48 PUSH
PROJECTION
0.0
DIFFERENCE
10.9%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
FLA
B. Stockton
(WR)
o2.5 Receptions
3.35 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.8
DIFFERENCE
10.36%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
FLA
D. Wilson
(WR)
u4.5 Receptions
3.63 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.9
DIFFERENCE
9.83%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
UK
K. Darby
(WR)
u4.5 Receptions
4.28 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.2
DIFFERENCE
8.92%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
FLA
L. Dippre
(TE)
u1.5 Receptions
1.12 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.4
DIFFERENCE
5.29%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
FLA
L. Harpring
(TE)
u1.5 Receptions
1.21 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.3
DIFFERENCE
2.24%
EV
|
|||||||
|
CARRIES
UK
C. Baxter
(RB)
o13.5 Carries
14.43 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.9
DIFFERENCE
12.12%
EV
|
|||||||
|
CARRIES
FLA
J. Baugh
(RB)
o16.5 Carries
16.51 PUSH
PROJECTION
0.0
DIFFERENCE
-5.09%
EV
|
|||||||
|
COMPLETIONS
UK
K. Minchey
(QB)
u20.5 Completions
19.46 UNDER
PROJECTION
-1.0
DIFFERENCE
10.74%
EV
|
|||||||
- Proj. Diff: Low to High
- Proj. Diff: High to Low
- Proj. Rating: Low to High
- Proj. Rating: High to Low
- +EV: Low to High
- +EV: High to Low
Recent Form Trends
Under is 4-0 in Gators last 4 games overall.
Wildcats are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
Over is 4-0 in Wildcats last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Wildcats are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.
Over is 4-0 in Wildcats last 4 games as a home underdog.
Wildcats are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite.
Wildcats are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite.
Over is 4-0 in Wildcats last 4 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.