Air Force vs Army Picks & Props
AFA vs ARMY Picks
NCAAF PicksThe Army Black Knights have among the worst defenses in the country, but the Air Force Falcons are 108th in adjusted defensive EPA themselves (0.09), allowing a poor 4.6 yards per run. These are two of the best rushing attacks in the country, and that will leave both defenses overmatched. I'm backing the Over.
The Army Black Knights have allowed 25.5 ppg, are allowing opponents to rack up 6.6 yards per play on offense, and haven't even been good against the run, giving up 152.4 yards per game on the round. That's welcome news to the Air Force Falcons, who lead all FBS teams in rushing attempts per game (64.6) and are second in rushing yards per contest (341.0). I like Air Force to win outright at up to 50%.
The Army Black Knights have scored Over 23.5 points in five of their first eight games, and haven't been held below 20 points by anyone, even solid opponents like the Tulane Green Wave or Memphis Tigers. Trust both teams to hit the Over in this one. I'm taking Army's scoring prop at up to 58% probability.
Along with my key bets on the Air Force Falcons and the Over, I'm also throwing in a trade on the Falcons to win the first half.
There won't be any surprises in this matchup; both teams will line up and run the ball at each other, and I don't see a way for Army to stop that approach by Air Force. Without major halftime adjustments or other factors to make me think the two halves will play out differently, I love the Falcons on the moneyline for the first half as well.
AFA vs ARMY Consensus Picks
AFA vs ARMY Props
| GAME & PLAYER PROPS | PROJECTIONS | ANALYSIS | BEST ODDS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
PASSING YARDS
ARMY
C. Hellums
(QB)
o72.5 Passing Yards
81.28 OVER
PROJECTION
+8.8
DIFFERENCE
24.71%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
AFA
R. Conti
(RB)
o33.5 Rushing Yards
49.25 OVER
PROJECTION
+15.7
DIFFERENCE
26.17%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
ARMY
G. Nwawuihe
(RB)
o69.5 Rushing Yards
80.02 OVER
PROJECTION
+10.5
DIFFERENCE
26.1%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
ARMY
C. Hellums
(QB)
u99.5 Rushing Yards
84.92 UNDER
PROJECTION
-14.6
DIFFERENCE
25.1%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
AFA
G. LaDue
(FB)
o45.5 Rushing Yards
51.27 OVER
PROJECTION
+5.8
DIFFERENCE
21.55%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
AFA
K. Hodges
(QB)
u102.5 Rushing Yards
101.76 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.7
DIFFERENCE
-6.43%
EV
|
|||||||
- Proj. Diff: Low to High
- Proj. Diff: High to Low
- Proj. Rating: Low to High
- Proj. Rating: High to Low
- +EV: Low to High
- +EV: High to Low
Recent Form Trends
Under is 7-0 in the last 7 meetings in Army.
Under is 6-0 in Black Knights last 6 vs. MWC.
Over is 4-0 in Black Knights last 4 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
Over is 6-0 in Black Knights last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
Underdog is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 meetings.
Over is 5-0 in Black Knights last 5 games following a straight up win.
Over is 4-0 in Black Knights last 4 games following a ATS win.
Over is 6-1 in Black Knights last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.