Our Week 5 NFL picks for Sunday and Monday are here: one top pick from each of Sunday’s 13 games and Monday night’s showdown between the Buffalo Bills and Los Angeles Rams, listed in kickoff order (all times ET) with the analyst behind every play.
A “top pick” is the analyst’s best angle in that preview, which isn’t always the point spread. Lines move, so confirm the number on the NFL oddsboard before locking in your picks.
Week 5 top picks at a glance (Sunday, Oct. 11 and Monday, Oct. 12)
| Matchup & kickoff | Top pick & analyst |
|---|---|
| Eagles vs. Jaguars 9:30 a.m. |
Jaguars -7.5 Neil Parker |
| Bears vs. Packers 1 p.m. |
Bears -1.5 Shawn Krest |
| Bengals vs. Dolphins 1 p.m. |
Bengals -6.5 Nick Galaida |
| Browns vs. Jets 1 p.m. |
Browns +2.5 Quinn Allen |
| Colts vs. Steelers 1 p.m. |
Steelers moneyline Neil Parker |
| Giants vs. Commanders 1 p.m. |
Giants +3.5 Tom Oldfield |
| Raiders vs. Patriots 1 p.m. |
Raiders +3.5 Ed Scimia |
| Texans vs. Titans 1 p.m. |
Texans -7.5 Quinn Allen |
| Vikings vs. Saints 1 p.m. |
Vikings -2.5 Geoff Clark |
| Broncos vs. Chargers 4:05 p.m. |
Over 41.5 Nick Galaida |
| 49ers vs. Seahawks 4:25 p.m. |
Seahawks moneyline Neil Parker |
| Lions vs. Cardinals 4:25 p.m. |
Lions -5.5 Geoff Clark |
| Ravens vs. Falcons 8:20 p.m. |
Ravens +3.5 Jason Logan |
| Bills vs. Rams Mon., 8:15 p.m. |
Rams -2.5 (early lean) Jason Logan |
Start trading with Kalshi today!
Sign up now using our exclusive Kalshi promo code 'MAX60' and trade $25 on any event contracts to get $60!
*Eligible U.S. locations only
9:30 a.m. kickoff (London)
Eagles vs. Jaguars
- Kickoff: 9:30 a.m. (Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London)
- TV: NFL Network
- Analyst: Neil Parker
Top pick: Jaguars -7.5
Neil Parker’s first trade this week was Jacksonville at -4.5, and he’s comfortable playing the Jaguars all the way to -7.5. His Eagles vs. Jaguars prediction and picks call Jacksonville superior on both sides of the ball by EPA per play and DVOA, with Jalen Hurts sitting at career lows in yards per attempt (6.3) and completion percentage (59.6%).
For more angles, see our Eagles vs. Jaguars prop picks and anytime touchdown scorer predictions.
1 p.m. kickoffs
Bears vs. Packers
- Kickoff: 1 p.m.
- TV: FOX
- Analyst: Shawn Krest
Top pick: Bears -1.5
Shawn Krest would lay the points with Chicago at a 54% probability or better. His Bears vs. Packers prediction and picks note the Bears have won back-to-back games with different quarterbacks, tight end Colston Loveland has made the most of Tyson Bagent, and the defense has allowed 12 or fewer points three straight times.
Krest also likes the Over 45.5 and Packers receiver Christian Watson to score. Our expert NFL prop picks target Bears running back D’Andre Swift to top 70 rushing yards.
Bengals vs. Dolphins
- Kickoff: 1 p.m.
- TV: FOX
- Analyst: Nick Galaida
Top pick: Bengals -6.5
Nick Galaida plays Cincinnati to 54% even after two straight losses. His Bengals vs. Dolphins prediction and picks point to Miami’s NFL-worst point differential (-55), a team that leads the league in starts by rookies (26), and a quarterback in Malik Willis who hasn’t topped a 40.5% success rate in any game.
Looking for more? Our NFL first touchdown scorer picks have a Miami angle, and Galaida’s prop pick is Dolphins running back Jaylen Wright to top 25 rushing yards.
Browns vs. Jets
- Kickoff: 1 p.m.
- TV: CBS
- Analyst: Quinn Allen
Top pick: Browns +2.5
Quinn Allen is happy to take Cleveland as a short underdog and plays it up to 55%. His Browns vs. Jets prediction and picks note the Browns have won three straight, own the NFL’s fifth-highest pressure rate (41.5%) against Geno Smith, and had three extra days of rest after Thursday night, while New York managed just 157 yards against Chicago.
Colts vs. Steelers
- Kickoff: 1 p.m.
- TV: CBS
- Analyst: Neil Parker
Top pick: Steelers moneyline
Neil Parker recommends Pittsburgh’s moneyline up to 62% because of a big rest and travel edge: the Steelers played on Thursday night in Week 4, while Indianapolis is coming back from London. His Colts vs. Steelers prediction and picks add that the Colts rank 25th in defensive DVOA and allow the sixth-highest rushing yards per attempt.
That sets up Jaylen Warren and the ground game in messy conditions. Check the NFL weather report before you bet.
Giants vs. Commanders
- Kickoff: 1 p.m.
- TV: FOX
- Analyst: Tom Oldfield
Top pick: Giants +3.5
Tom Oldfield will take the points at +3 or +3.5 (playable up to 55%). His Giants vs. Commanders prediction and picks note that Jayden Daniels is back from a dislocated elbow, but left tackle Laremy Tunsil and receiver Stefon Diggs are out, Terry McLaurin is questionable, and New York is 5-1 against the spread in its last six.
It could be a wet Sunday in Landover, so check the weather report. Oldfield’s prop pick is Daniels over 29.5 rushing yards.
Raiders vs. Patriots
- Kickoff: 1 p.m.
- TV: CBS
- Analyst: Ed Scimia
Top pick: Raiders +3.5
Ed Scimia thinks the market is giving New England too much credit for home field. His Raiders vs. Patriots prediction and picks note Drake Maye has thrown seven interceptions against four touchdowns, while Las Vegas averages 28.8 points per game and ranks sixth in defensive EPA per pass attempt.
Texans vs. Titans
- Kickoff: 1 p.m.
- TV: CBS
- Analyst: Quinn Allen
Top pick: Texans -7.5
Quinn Allen is still comfortable laying the points with Houston up to 55%. His Texans vs. Titans prediction and picks note Tennessee is scoring just 13.8 points per game, second-worst in the NFL, while C.J. Stroud threw for 347 yards and two touchdowns last week.
Allen builds a combo around the Texans covering, a low-scoring game and another solid outing from Nico Collins.
Vikings vs. Saints
- Kickoff: 1 p.m.
- TV: FOX
- Analyst: Geoff Clark
Top pick: Vikings -2.5
Geoff Clark will play Minnesota up to -3, making the Vikings 3.4 points better on a neutral field. His Vikings vs. Saints prediction and picks note New Orleans has the worst defensive success rate in the NFL, and he expects Kyler Murray’s best game yet with Justin Jefferson back at practice.
Clark’s touchdown pick is Aaron Jones, and our expert prop picks include T.J. Hockenson to top 40 receiving yards.
4:05 p.m. kickoff
Broncos vs. Chargers
- Kickoff: 4:05 p.m.
- TV: CBS
- Analyst: Nick Galaida
Top pick: Over 41.5
Nick Galaida expects points in a battle of banged-up secondaries and plays the Over up to 54%. His Broncos vs. Chargers prediction and picks note Denver will be without cornerbacks Pat Surtain II and Riley Moss, Los Angeles is missing safety Derwin James and cornerback Donte Jackson, and Sean Payton is taking over Denver’s play-calling.
Galaida still has the Broncos winning a high-scoring divisional game.
4:25 p.m. kickoffs
49ers vs. Seahawks
- Kickoff: 4:25 p.m.
- TV: FOX
- Analyst: Neil Parker
Top pick: Seahawks moneyline
Neil Parker recommends Seattle’s moneyline up to 66%, or pivoting to Seahawks -3 if it becomes available. His 49ers vs. Seahawks prediction and picks note Seattle ranks first in DVOA, has won nine straight at home, and San Francisco will be without pass rusher Nick Bosa and fullback Kyle Juszczyk, with Mike Evans playing through cracked ribs.
Our expert NFL prop picks also feature Seahawks receiver Rashid Shaheed in this NFC West showdown.
Lions vs. Cardinals
- Kickoff: 4:25 p.m.
- TV: FOX
- Analyst: Geoff Clark
Top pick: Lions -5.5
Geoff Clark will trade Detroit up to -6. His Lions vs. Cardinals prediction and picks point to Arizona’s offensive line ranking 31st in pass-blocking rate against a Lions defense that is fourth in pass-rush win rate, with starting left tackle Paris Johnson now on season-ending injured reserve.
Under Dan Campbell, Detroit is 13-4-1 against the spread as a favorite after a loss. Clark also likes Sam LaPorta to score and the Under 54.5.
Sunday Night Football
Ravens vs. Falcons
- Kickoff: 8:20 p.m.
- TV: NBC/Peacock
- Analyst: Jason Logan
Top pick: Ravens +3.5
Jason Logan isn’t buying the swing from Ravens -6 to Falcons -3.5 after Lamar Jackson’s ankle injury. His Ravens vs. Falcons prediction and picks trust backup Tyler Huntley, Derrick Henry and a Baltimore defense that is the best Atlanta has faced.
The Falcons are also on a short week after Monday’s win, and Logan notes left tackle Jake Matthews is dealing with a groin injury.
Monday Night Football
Bills vs. Rams
- Kickoff: Monday, 8:15 p.m.
- TV: ESPN/ABC
- Analyst: Jason Logan
Top pick: Rams -2.5 (early lean)
Jason Logan leans toward the Rams in a possible Super Bowl preview. His Bills vs. Rams early leans and predictions point to a Los Angeles run game that ranks in the top 10 in success rate per handoff and Run DVOA against a Bills run defense rated near the bottom.
It’s just the Rams’ second home game after back-to-back road trips and an opener in Australia. Logan also leans Under 54.5, the tallest total on the board.
More Week 5 NFL picks
Want to build a bigger card? These Covers roundups cover every bet type for the weekend:
- NFL Picks Against the Spread for Every Week 5 Game
- NFL Moneyline Picks for Every Week 5 Game
- Gimme the Over! NFL Week 5 Over/Under Predictions & Totals Combo
- NFL Week 5 Underdog Picks
- Expert NFL Prop Picks: Week 5
- NFL Anytime Touchdown Picks & TD Props: Week 5
- NFL First Touchdown Scorer Picks & Odds: Week 5
- NFL Week 5 Odds and Betting Lines
- NFL Picks Week 4: Best Bet for Every Sunday Game (Oct. 4)
Check the NFL weather report and the NFL injury report, compare numbers across football betting sites and NFL prediction market apps, and brush up with our guide to betting on football before finalizing today’s picks.
All of this week’s matchups are also on the NFL scores and matchups page, and the full pick archive lives in free NFL picks.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
