Our Ravens vs. Falcons computer picks are targeting passing-yard Overs for both quarterbacks as Baltimore visits Atlanta without Lamar Jackson for Sunday Night Football.
Tyler Huntley takes over for the Ravens, while Michael Penix Jr. looks to keep the Falcons rolling after back-to-back wins.
Below, we break down eight player props using Covers prop projections and Kalshi probabilities ahead of tonight's 8:20 p.m. ET kickoff. Find more of our favorite NFL picks for Week 5.
Ravens vs Falcons computer picks
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
 Ravens |
 Falcons |
|---|---|
| Tyler Huntley o174.5 passing yards 51% |
Michael Penix o199.5 passing yards 62% |
| Derrick Henry u20.5 rushing attempts 59% |
Bijan Robinson u18.5 rushing attempts 49% |
| Mark Andrews o24.5 receiving yards 62% |
Kyle Pitts o24.5 receiving yards 48% |
| Zay Flowers o69.5 receiving yards 48% |
Drake London o69.5 receiving yards 61% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Ravens vs Falcons prop analysis
Ravens computer picks
Tyler Huntley Over 174.5 passing yards (51%)
Projection: 202.17 passing yards
With Lamar Jackson sidelined, Tyler Huntley takes over an offense that may have to keep pace with an Atlanta team coming off back-to-back wins. Huntley completed eight of nine passes for 63 yards in relief last week, and Baltimore can lean on quick throws to its playmakers to ease him into the start. Our model projects 202.17 passing yards, nearly 28 above this 174.5-yard total.
🔥 Trade Huntley passing yards now
Derrick Henry Under 20.5 rushing attempts (59%)
Projection: 17.5 rushing attempts
Derrick Henry handled 23 carries against Tennessee last week but managed only 73 yards, and Atlanta presents another physical test for Baltimore's banged-up offensive line. Huntley can contribute as a runner, while a potential trailing game script could also pull touches away from Henry. The computer projects 17.5 carries, comfortably below the 20.5-attempt line.
🏈 trade Henry rushing attempts now
Mark Andrews Over 24.5 receiving yards (62%)
Projection: 35.19 receiving yards
Mark Andrews has surpassed 24.5 receiving yards in three of four games, including five catches for 27 yards in Week 4. With Huntley likely relying on shorter, safer throws against Atlanta's pressure, the veteran tight end is a natural outlet in the middle of the field. Our 35.19-yard projection clears this modest receiving line by more than 10 yards.
🔥 Trade Andrews receiving yards now
Zay Flowers Over 69.5 receiving yards (48%)
Projection: 76.55 receiving yards
Zay Flowers caught eight passes for 118 yards and a touchdown last week and has cleared 80 yards in all three games he's played this season. Expect designed touches and quick hitters to keep him involved with Huntley under center, giving the Ravens' biggest receiving threat a path to another strong night. The model projects 76.55 yards against a 69.5 line, although Flowers is questionable with a foot injury and should be checked before kickoff.
🔥 Trade Flowers receiving yards now
Falcons computer picks
Michael Penix Jr. Over 199.5 passing yards (62%)
Projection: 224.38 passing yards
Michael Penix Jr. has revived Atlanta's passing game, throwing for 256 yards against Green Bay and 223 against New Orleans in back-to-back wins. He's completed 33 of 45 passes in those starts, and Baltimore's need to account for Bijan Robinson could create opportunities downfield. Our 224.38-yard projection puts Penix well above this 199.5-yard benchmark.
🔥 Trade Penix passing yards now
Bijan Robinson Under 18.5 rushing attempts (49%)
Projection: 16.23 rushing attempts
Bijan Robinson has been electric, but his workload has fluctuated: he carried 29 times against Green Bay before dropping to 19 attempts against New Orleans. Brian Robinson Jr. has also handled 44 rushes through four games, giving Atlanta another option if it spreads the workload.
🏈 Trade Robinson rushing attempts now
Kyle Pitts Over 24.5 receiving yards (48%)
Projection: 30.10 receiving yards
Kyle Pitts is coming off his most productive game of the season, hauling in three passes for 47 yards against the Saints, including a 28-yard gain. He does not need a heavy target share to beat this low line, and Baltimore's attention to the Falcons' run game could open up room off play-action.
🔥 trade Pitts receiving yards now
Drake London Over 69.5 receiving yards (61%)
Projection: 85.34 receiving yards
Drake London has been on a tear since Penix returned, posting 194 receiving yards against the Packers and 96 against the Saints. Their growing connection gives Atlanta a dangerous downfield option even if the Ravens commit extra defenders to slowing Robinson.
🔥 trade London receiving yards now
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