NFL Anytime Touchdown Picks & TD Props: Week 5

The touchdowns were tough to find in Week 4 after a couple of great weeks of NFL picks to open the season, but Week 5 is offering more value for the plane breakers thanks to a lot of injuries, changes to offensive strategies, and plus matchups. 

These are my favorite NFL anytime touchdown scorer picks for Week 5.

Best Week 5 anytime touchdown scorer picks

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Game	Pick	Probability
PHI vs  JAX	Bhayshul Tuten	50%
CLE vs  NYJ	Quinshon Judkins	39%
CHI vs  GB	D'Andre Swift	46%
CIN vs  MIA	Dohnte Meyers	30%
LV vs  NE	Drake Maye	19%
MIN vs  NO	TJ Hockenson	24%
HOU vs  TEN	Woody Marks	37%
NYG vs  WAS	Isaiah Likely	28%
IND vs  PIT	Darnell Washington	23%
DEN vs  LAC	Tre' Harris	21%
DET vs  ARI	Tyler Allgeier	29%
SF vs  SEA	Rashid Shaheed	22%
BAL vs  ATL	Brian Robinson	30%
BUF vs  LAR	Dalton Kincaid	32%

Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.

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Eagles vs Jaguars TD pick

Bhayshul Tuten 50%

GRADE: 🟢 

Bhayshul Tuten had two TDs called back last week because of holding penalties but still finished with 19 touches and leads the team in red-zone carries, with nine of the Jaguars’ 15 running back RZ carries this season.

I’m going square here and making Tuten my square TD of the week in London. Chris Rodriguez is getting some work, but his 26% snap share isn’t enough to make me bite at his 4.3x price as the backup.

I have Tuten at 56% to score as a big favorite and a back who could see 20-plus touches. The Eagles are one of 11 defenses allowing 100-plus rushing yards to opposing running backs. He is also a top-three choice on Covers' Anytime TD Value Index. 

I want nothing to do with the Eagles’ offense with all the injuries, trades, and poor form, and the Jaguars have moved from 2.5-point underdogs to 7-point favorites.

Browns vs Jets TD pick

Quinshon Judkins 39%

GRADE: 🟢

I got Quinshon Judkins at 39% but have his fair TD price at 46%. He was as short as 2.1x just two games ago and is coming off a game where he handled 83% of all running back opportunities, including a massive seven-target game.

Considering how the Jets’ offense performed last week without Breece Hall, Cleveland could easily be playing with the lead and leaning on Judkins for a 4-1 SU push.

Near the goal line, it has been all Judkins, as he has all nine of Cleveland’s running back red-zone carries this season, scoring on one and adding another three targets. This offense has been average over the last three weeks, and that’s a compliment. Judkins’ price will fall this week.

Bears vs Packers TD pick

D'Andre Swift 46.5%

GRADE: 🟡

Kyle Monangai had a massive game in Week 4 after a D'Andre Swift fumble, but I'm not ready for the latter to lose his starting gig, especially with Monangai dealing with a thumb injury and now a toe issue at practice this week.

Ben Johnson's offense supports two running backs. We've seen it in Detroit, and we're seeing it in Chicago. Because of Monangai's output last week, Swift's price is an all-time bargain and something worth buying to even money. Swift still has 19 red-zone carries to Monangai's 14, so it's not like Swift is simply the between-the-20s back. There's a reason he's the highest-rated TD on the Covers Anytime TD Value Index this week.

It's a cupcake matchup for both backs. The Packers are allowing the fourth-most rushing yards per game to opposing running backs and the second-most rushing TDs to the position. I wouldn't be surprised if Johnson wanted to run the score up against his division rivals, whom he eliminated in the Wild Card last year.

Watch the injury reports. I'll play Swift to 50% with Monangai in, and if either back sits, I'll play the healthy one to 55% and likely sprinkle on Roschon Johnson.

Bengals vs Dolphins TD pick

Dohnte Meyers 29.4%

GRADE: 🟡

There are some concerns about getting this number early with Ja'Marr Chase still in concussion protocol and Tee Higgins a DNP due to multiple injuries, but I'm rolling with the rookie receiver in an elite matchup with an offense that had the second-highest pass rate of 2026 by any team last week.

Meyers could be as short as 2.4x if both Chase and Higgins miss Week 5. He is coming off nine targets and 82 yards on a 93% route share in Week 4. He played opposite Higgins when Chase went out and could still have a massive role even if one of the elite WRs suits up. He has WR3 value in this offense regardless, which runs 11 personnel at a 50% rate.

Raiders vs Patriots TD pick

Drake Maye 19%

GRADE: 🟢

I got Drake Maye at 5.25x when this price was 4.7x two weeks ago, and I have a fair price closer to 4.75x. Maye has been using his legs after an eight-carry game, and he's had a carry from inside the 5-yard line in back-to-back games. He has yet to score this year after rushing for four TDs last season.

This is a big price for a QB who has averaged more than 25 rushing yards over the last two seasons across a 21-game sample. His legs were a big part of the Patriots' win over the Bills, and that skill set should continue to be on display as New England digs itself out of an early-season hole. Rhamondre Stevenson is also dealing with a knee issue, which could create even more rushing opportunities for Maye.

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Vikings vs Saints TD pick

TJ Hockenson 23.8%

GRADE: 🟢

I got T.J. Hockenson at 4.3x and have his fair price at 3.5x. He was 2.6x last week against the Dolphins.

I know the Vikings are scoring these days, but a date with the Saints, who allow the most points per game at 32, should help. New Orleans has a ton of injuries at linebacker, and that was on full display Monday night as the Falcons put up 45 points and averaged 7.5 yards per play.

Hockenson tied for the most targets at the tight end position last week with 13, and he's the only Vikings non-RB to receive red-zone targets over the last two weeks. Justin Jefferson is aiming to play Sunday, but that's not guaranteed. Maybe Kyler Murray has found his new Trey McBride. If Jefferson is out or limited, Hockenson could be the No. 1 option in the passing game against a defense that ranks 28th in EPA per dropback and 30th in success rate against the pass.

Texans vs Titans TD pick

Woody Marks 37%

GRADE: 🟡

Woody Marks is the better running back in an offense that is back in business with the return of Nico Collins. He played 42% of the snaps last week and had six carries and a score — his second in as many games. Since Week 2, he has more red-zone carries than David Montgomery, who has three RZ carries for a whopping zero yards. Marks also has two targets to Montgomery’s zero inside the 20.

The Titans are a top-10 matchup for rushing TDs and have a 66% opponent red-zone scoring rate, while the Texans could be running heavily as 7.5-point road favorites. Marks is a buy for me to 40%.

Giants vs Commanders TD pick

Isaiah Likely 28.3%

GRADE: 🟢

I got this at 3.56x and would play it to 3.15x, with a fair price of 3x. Isaiah Likely has a massive 32% target share. He had 12 targets last week and hauled in a team-high seven receptions. Jameis Winston is looking a lot better than he did in Week 1, and the second-most targeted tight end in football is a TD threat in Week 5 against a Commanders defense that is giving up 30.5 points per game.

It’s not just volume; it’s volume near the goal line, too. No tight end has more red-zone receptions than Likely, who leads an offense that is struggling to run inside the 20 with just one rushing TD in the red zone. This offense is being undervalued in this matchup, and Likely is the best target at 32% or better.

Colts vs Steelers TD pick

Darnell Washington 23%

GRADE: 🟡

I got this at 4.5x and would play it to 4x. The Steelers are passing the ball at an above-average rate and used 2-TE sets at a season-high 42% last week. Darnell Washington has seen at least four targets in back-to-back weeks and has 94 yards and a score over that stretch. He also had two red-zone targets in Week 4 and saw just as many targets as Pat Freiermuth.

Washington is a human refrigerator who faces a Colts defense coming back from London and ranks as a top-10 matchup for tight ends. Indy is also allowing 392 total yards per game (31st) and 26 points per game (22nd). The Pittsburgh tight end is a great mid-range TD target at this price for a Week 5 card.

Broncos vs Chargers TD pick

Tre' Harris 21.1%

GRADE: 🟢

This is an incredible price on Kalshi when you consider the rest of the market is closer to 4x rather than his 4.7x price. The Broncos are missing key bodies in the secondary, as Patrick Surtain is doubtful and fellow starting corner Riley Moss is questionable.

Helping Tre' Harris get those looks against second-string defenders is the health of the Chargers' receiving corps. Ladd McConkey can't seem to get healthy, and Quentin Johnston is also questionable. The only players seemingly healthy on this Chargers offense are Justin Herbert and Harris, who had five targets last week, an 83% route share, and 60 receiving yards. Harris also leads all Chargers WRs in red-zone targets.

This is one of my favorite TD prices this weekend.

Lions vs Cardinals TD pick

Tyler Allgeier 29.4%

GRADE: 🟡

Even the Cardinals can score against the Lions, who are allowing 31.8 points per game and have given up the sixth-most rushing TDs to opposing running backs. Tyler Allgeier had 10 opportunities last week, turning them into 49 yards and a score. Both Allgeier and Jeremiyah Love are getting looks in the red zone, with the backup accounting for eight of their 21 red-zone opportunities this year. However, Love's health is the most important factor this week.

The rookie running back hurt his ankle in Week 4, but it wasn't the same ankle he injured in the preseason, which kept him from taking any warm-up snaps. Love is expected to be limited in practice this week but should be good to play. Still, if he's limited, Allgeier could poach more red-zone opportunities against the softest defense in football. I got this at 3.4x early in the week and would play it to 3.2x.

49ers vs Seahawks TD pick

Rashid Shaheed 22.2%

GRADE: 🟢

Rashid Shaheed scored last week at 3.6x, and even with an adjustment to a fair price of 3.8x, the 4.5x price I got is great value.

His TD last week came on a rushing attempt after he lined up in the backfield, which could be something we see more of going forward with this rushing offense now without Jadarian Price. Zach Charbonnet will not play this week, so there's still time to hop on the burner, who has plenty of outs to score, whether it's as a low-volume pass catcher, on special teams, or now out of the backfield as a rusher.

The 49ers will be down three starters on defense, including two in the secondary, which only helps Shaheed's chances of finding the end zone.

Ravens vs Falcons TD pick

Brian Robinson 30.3%

GRADE: 🟡

I'm taking the longer-priced of the Robinsons in Week 5, as I have a fair price on Brian Robinson at 3.1x, not the 3.4x his TD opened at. The pair had five scores on MNF, and since Michael Penix returned, this offense ranks first in the NFL in EPA/play. There is simply too much to stop with Drake London and Bijan Robinson, and Brian is happy to clean up the mess around the goal line.

The backup back had five red-zone opportunities last week and turned them into three scores, while Bijan had seven opportunities. Brian has double-digit carries in three straight weeks and shouldn't be priced longer than 3.0x in an offense that can consistently move the ball. Baltimore ranks in the bottom third of the league in defensive EPA/rush and could be giving the Falcons good field position all day if Lamar Jackson, Zay Flowers, and the offensive line continue to struggle with injuries ahead of the matchup.

Bills vs Rams TD pick

Dalton Kincaid 32.3%

GRADE: 🟡

There is meat on the bone for a Dalton Kincaid TD that opened at 3.2x, and I have a fair price of 2.8x.

Kincaid has been ignored too much over the last two weeks as the Bills have moved away from their heavy-TE usage and used play-action at a lower rate. Let's hope a Week 4 loss to New England pushes Joe Brady back toward the 13-personnel usage we saw in Weeks 1 and 2, when Kincaid had 225 receiving yards and a score. It's a great buy-low spot on the tight end after he has just three receptions over the last two weeks.

Buffalo has played bad football over the last two games, and getting Kincaid the ball has to be a priority in what could be an indoor shootout.

My weekly NFL TD props column is 15-43 this season for -2.3 units.

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