The Covers NFL Parlay builder cheat sheet brings some of the most useful information together in one place to help you with your NFL picks.
Each week, we'll highlight 2026 hit rates for some of the NFL's biggest stars, notable Covers player prop projections, touchdown values, and other numbers worth knowing before building your NFL picks card.
Once you're ready, head to the Covers app to build out your parlay and compare prices across all options. Download now!
NFL player prop hit rates
Current-season hit rates can give bettors a quick look at how frequently a player has reached certain yardage thresholds in 2026.
Instead of looking only at whether a player went Over or Under a traditional sportsbook prop, the tables below show how frequently featured players have reached a range of statistical milestones.
Week 5 sample: These tables use 2026 regular-season appearances through Week 4 only. DNPs are excluded, and a player must reach at least the listed yardage to record a hit.
Quarterback passing yard hit rates
For quarterbacks, we're looking at how frequently each player has reached a series of passing-yard thresholds during the 2026 regular season.
| Player | 175+ | 200+ | 225+ | 250+ | 275+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Joe Burrow |
4/4 100% |
4/4 100% |
3/4 75% |
3/4 75% |
2/4 50% |
 Brock Purdy |
4/4 100% |
4/4 100% |
2/4 50% |
2/4 50% |
2/4 50% |
 Drake Maye |
4/4 100% |
2/4 50% |
1/4 25% |
1/4 25% |
0/4 0% |
 Aaron Rodgers |
4/4 100% |
3/4 75% |
2/4 50% |
2/4 50% |
2/4 50% |
 Justin Herbert |
4/4 100% |
2/4 50% |
1/4 25% |
0/4 0% |
0/4 0% |
How to read the table: A 4/4 hit rate means the player reached that yardage threshold in all four of his qualifying appearances. A 3/4 hit rate is 75%. Denominators reflect games played, not simply the number of weeks completed.
Running back rushing yard hit rates
For running backs, we're looking at how frequently each player has reached a series of rushing-yard thresholds during the 2026 regular season.
| Player | 40+ | 50+ | 60+ | 70+ | 80+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jahmyr Gibbs |
4/4 100% |
3/4 75% |
2/4 50% |
2/4 50% |
2/4 50% |
 Bijan Robinson |
4/4 100% |
4/4 100% |
4/4 100% |
4/4 100% |
3/4 75% |
| Christian McCaffrey |
3/4 75% |
3/4 75% |
2/4 50% |
1/4 25% |
0/4 0% |
 Jonathan Taylor |
4/4 100% |
4/4 100% |
4/4 100% |
3/4 75% |
3/4 75% |
 Derrick Henry |
4/4 100% |
4/4 100% |
4/4 100% |
3/4 75% |
2/4 50% |
Wide receiver receiving yard hit rates
For wide receivers, we're looking at how frequently each player has reached a series of receiving-yard thresholds during the 2026 regular season.
| Player | 60+ | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jaxon Smith-Njigba |
4/4 100% |
4/4 100% |
3/4 75% |
3/4 75% |
3/4 75% |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown |
3/4 75% |
2/4 50% |
1/4 25% |
1/4 25% |
1/4 25% |
| Drake London |
2/4 50% |
2/4 50% |
2/4 50% |
2/4 50% |
1/4 25% |
| Zay Flowers |
3/3 100% |
3/3 100% |
3/3 100% |
2/3 67% |
2/3 67% |
 Chris Olave |
4/4 100% |
4/4 100% |
4/4 100% |
3/4 75% |
3/4 75% |
Tight end receiving yard hit rates
| Player | 30+ | 40+ | 50+ | 60+ | 70+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Trey McBride |
4/4 100% |
3/4 75% |
2/4 50% |
2/4 50% |
2/4 50% |
| George Kittle |
3/4 75% |
3/4 75% |
3/4 75% |
3/4 75% |
3/4 75% |
| Tyler Warren |
2/4 50% |
2/4 50% |
1/4 25% |
0/4 0% |
0/4 0% |
 Brock Bowers |
2/2 100% |
2/2 100% |
2/2 100% |
2/2 100% |
2/2 100% |
| Sam LaPorta |
4/4 100% |
4/4 100% |
2/4 50% |
1/4 25% |
1/4 25% |
Important: These hit rates use 2026 regular-season appearances through Week 4 only. Zay Flowers has three appearances and Brock Bowers has two; the other featured players have four. DNPs are excluded. These are small samples, not forecasts of a player's probability of reaching a threshold in Week 5.
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Biggest Covers player prop projection gaps
Hit rates tell us what players have done so far in 2026. Covers NFL prop projections give us another way to evaluate what could happen this week.
The table below highlights five positive yardage gaps for Sunday's Week 5 slate, using the DraftKings line shown on Covers for every player. A larger difference doesn't guarantee an Over will hit, but it can help identify markets worth investigating further.
Top Covers projection edges
| Player | Market | DK Line |
Covers Projection |
Diff. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold |
Passing Yards |
220.5 | 254.63 | +34.13 |
 Kyler Murray |
Passing Yards |
213.5 | 240.53 | +27.03 |
| Tyler Shough |
Passing Yards |
236.5 | 263.50 | +27.00 |
 Jordan Love |
Passing Yards |
234.5 | 253.74 | +19.24 |
| Omarion Hampton |
Rushing Yards |
39.5 | 57.60 | +18.10 |
Covers projections checked Oct. 7, 2026, for games on Sunday, Oct. 11.
NFL touchdown values
Touchdown scorers are among the most popular legs used in NFL parlays, but a strong likelihood of scoring doesn't necessarily mean a player is offering strong betting value.
Our very own Andy Whiteoak created an NFL touchdown grade guide to highlight the top-value plays in the market. The Week 5 table below is awaiting verified grades and probabilities.
| Player | Opp. | Index Score |
Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
 D'Andre Swift |
 |
92 | 47% |
 Jahmyr Gibbs |
 |
92 | 78% |
 Bhayshul Tuten |
 |
91 | 49% |
 Cam Skattebo |
 |
91 | 50% |
 James Cook |
 |
90 | 54% |
Remember that hit rate and value are not the same thing. A player who has scored frequently may still offer little betting value if sportsbooks are charging an extremely short price for his anytime touchdown prop.
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Numbers worth knowing this week
Brock Purdy 200+ passing yards
Purdy has reached 200 passing yards in all four appearances (4/4), posting 205, 287, 297, and 218 yards.
Bijan Robinson 70+ rushing yards
Robinson has reached 70 rushing yards in all four appearances (4/4), with totals of 83, 72, 194, and 145 yards.
Chris Olave 80+ receiving yards
Olave has reached 80 receiving yards in all four appearances (4/4), recording 182, 86, 107, and 116 yards.
Brock Bowers 70+ receiving yards
Bowers has reached 70 receiving yards in both appearances (2/2), recording 116 and 86 yards. His two DNPs are excluded.
Sam Darnold passing projection
The Covers projection of 254.63 passing yards is 34.13 yards above the DraftKings line of 220.5.
D'Andre Swift TD projection
Swift tops Andy Whiteoak's NFL Touchdown Scorer Value Index
Create parlays like this and more using the betslip builder with the Covers app to compare prices across all options! Download now!
How to use the NFL parlay builder cheat sheet
This page isn't meant to tell bettors that every high hit-rate player belongs in the same parlay. Instead, use the different sections to help narrow down markets for further research:
- Use hit rates to see how consistently players have reached common statistical thresholds
- Use Covers projections to compare projected performance against current sportsbook lines
- Use touchdown grades to identify players whose TD prices may offer value
- Check the Sunday watchlist for injuries, role changes, weather, or other information that could affect a player's outlook
- Compare prices before adding a leg, especially when using alternate player props
And remember: the strongest individual bets aren't necessarily the strongest combination. Each additional parlay leg increases the number of outcomes that need to go your way.
Before you build your NFL parlay
Check the latest information before placing your bets.
Player prop lines, odds, and alternate markets can change throughout Sunday morning. Confirm player availability, injury news, weather, and the latest sportsbook prices before finalizing your parlay.
Current-season hit rates are provided for informational purposes and describe previous 2026 results. Do not interpret them as the probability of a player reaching the same statistical threshold in an upcoming game.
