Coming off a 12-4 week for +4.98 units, I’m looking to keep the momentum rolling with my NFL moneyline picks for Week 6.
This week’s card is headlined by the 49ers seeking vengeance in the Pacific Northwest, while I’m also backing a few road favorites and sprinkling in some underdogs across a loaded Sunday slate.
Let’s keep stacking winners in my latest NFL picks.
My NFL moneyline record is 42-22 this season for +7.48 units.
NFL moneyline picks for Week 5
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Matchup |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Buccaneers vs  Cowboys |
80% |
 Eagles vs  Jaguars |
76% |
 Browns vs  Jets |
45% |
 Bengals vs  Dolphins |
75% |
 Raiders vs  Patriots |
37% |
 Vikings vs  Saints |
56% |
 Texans vs  Titans |
77% |
 Giants vs  Commanders |
63% |
 Colts vs  Steelers |
43% |
 Bears vs  Packers |
59% |
 Broncos vs  Chargers |
38% |
 Lions vs  Cardinals |
70% |
 49ers vs  Seahawks |
41% |
 Ravens vs  Falcons |
61% |
 Bills vs  Rams |
61% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Expert Week 5 NFL moneyline picks
Buccaneers vs. Cowboys: Cowboys
Not only was Jalon Daniels’ debut a complete disaster, but the Bucs’ defense is getting shredded, allowing the fourth-most yards per play heading into this TNF showdown.
Dak Prescott and the Cowboys’ offense are riding high after a thrilling win in Houston, and that momentum will carry over into a home win at Jerry World.
Check out our full Buccaneers vs. Cowboys predictions!
Eagles vs. Jaguars: Jaguars
Jacksonville has plenty of experience playing overseas, and this London “home game” features a Jags team boasting an AFC-best +51 point differential.
With Philly’s offense banged up and DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert, and Saquon Barkley all potentially sidelined, I’ll take Jacksonville to get the job done across the pond.
Browns vs. Jets: Browns
New York is coming off a messy loss in which it ran fewer plays than Chicago recorded first downs.
Now facing a red-hot Cleveland team coming off an extra three days of rest, expect the Browns to take care of business in front of the Dawg Pound.
Bengals vs. Dolphins: Bengals
Miami is averaging just 11.5 points per game heading into Week 5.
Cincy’s “much-improved” defense has been mostly fugazi so far, but Joe Burrow & Co. won’t need to be perfect to pull away in the Sunshine State.
Raiders vs. Patriots: Raiders
As Ed Scimia breaks down in his Raiders vs. Patriots early leans, Las Vegas has been the better team on both sides of the ball:
"While the Patriots have slightly better raw numbers, the advanced metrics favor the Raiders. Las Vegas ranks 12th in offensive EPA per play, compared to 21st for New England, and eighth in defensive EPA, compared to 12th for the Patriots."
I like the Raiders to bounce back in Foxborough.
Vikings vs. Saints: Vikings
While Minnesota’s defense continues to bring the heat, the Vikings’ offense has flamed out for the most part under Kyler Murray.
Luckily, getting Justin Jefferson back against a Saints defense that ranks 30th in EPA per play is the perfect remedy for Murray & Co.
Minny improves to 5-0 in the Big Easy.
More Covers NFL trading tools
Texans vs. Titans: Texans
If I wasn’t already out on Cam Ward, his latest postgame presser put the proverbial nail in the coffin.
The return of Nico Collins finally has Houston moving the ball with confidence, and the Texans will nab their first win of the season in Nashville.
Giants vs. Commanders: Commanders
Jameis Winston continues to be a turnover machine, while Washington is banking on Jayden Daniels returning under center for this NFC East rivalry.
The Commanders are 4-0 against the Giants dating back to 2024, and they'll continue to own this matchup.
Colts vs. Steelers: Colts
Indy's defense has stepped up over the last few weeks, limiting opponents to just 2.85 yards per carry over that stretch.
With Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers' offense remaining stagnant, give me Indy to make it three wins in a row.
Bears vs. Packers: Bears
Chicago is coming off its best defensive performance of the season, with the Bears registering three sacks and seven QB hits while holding the Jets to 0-for-7 on third down.
Now facing a Green Bay team that nearly blew another double-digit lead (shocker, I know), expect Dennis Allen to blitz the hell out of Jordan Love and take advantage of a shaky Packers O-line.
Broncos vs. Chargers: Chargers
Bo Nix’s passing chart this season should alarm Broncos Country, and Denver has produced just 13 first-half points through four games.
With Pat Surtain II sidelined for this clash at SoFi, I’m buying low on the Chargers as a home dog.
Lions vs. Cardinals: Lions
Detroit’s defense can’t stop a nosebleed, but Jacoby Brissett isn’t exactly striking fear into anyone.
Arizona’s stop unit just gave up 36 points to Jameis Winston and the Giants, so I’ll take Detroit’s offense to do the heavy lifting (again) in the desert.
49ers vs. Seahawks: 49ers
The loss of former OC Klint Kubiak has been evident for Seattle’s offense, particularly on third downs, where the Seahawks rank 31st in conversion rate. Meanwhile, Brock Purdy and the 49ers lead the league in that category.
With Sam Darnold seeing ghosts again, I’m rolling with the 49ers to exact some revenge in the PNW.
Ravens vs. Falcons: Falcons
The chances of Lamar Jackson starting Sunday night in Atlanta are slim at best, and even if he does, it’s hard to look past a Falcons team that has found its rhythm with Michael Penix Jr. under center and boasts the league’s highest pressure rate on D.
Best of luck to Tyler "Snoop" Huntley.
Bills vs. Rams: Rams
With Ed Oliver and D.J. Moore’s statuses up in the air, a Rams team fresh off escaping the jaws of defeat in Philly will have the upper hand at home.
Expect Sean McVay to lean heavily on Kyren Williams and Blake Corum against a Bills defense that has been gashed for 274 rushing yards over its last two games.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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