It's no surprise that a classic NFC North matchup is providing massive value in the touchdown market.
Chicago is a 2.5-point favorite in a 45.5-point game, producing a 24-point implied total. Lambeau Field is forecast near 70 degrees with light wind, so weather should have little effect.
Tyson Bagent starts for the injured Caleb Williams, while D'Andre Swift, Kyle Monangai and three starting offensive linemen require continued injury monitoring.
Pricing a road favorite led by a backup quarterback usually invites retail skepticism, yet the exchange has Chicago pegged for 24 implied points for a reason. With Caleb Williams sidelined, Bagent inherits an offense built to operate with quick-trigger rhythm.
If you are breaking down Chicago Bears anytime touchdown scorer picks, ignore long-shot perimeter contracts. With offensive line injuries clouding the depth chart, red-zone play design inevitably shrinks to high-floor rushing attempts and immediate boundary screens.
Bagent won't be asked to improvise downfield; he will distribute within five yards of scrimmage, concentrating goal-line equity into the backfield.
Top Chicago Bears anytime touchdown predictions
| Player | Position |  Probability |
Index Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| D'Andre Swift | RB | 47% | 92 |
| Luther Burden III | WR | 26% | 87 |
| Colston Loveland | TE | 29% | 81 |
| Rome Odunze | WR | 27% | 80 |
| Tyson Bagent | QB | 14% | 73 |
| Cole Kmet | TE | 13% | 72 |
| Kalif Raymond | WR | 16% | 70 |
| Kaleb Johnson | RB | 32% | 59 |
| CHI Bears D/ST | DST | 18% | 52 |
Market note: Probability is calculated directly from the submitted market price. Index Score measures relative value, not the player's raw probability of scoring.
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D'Andre Swift anytime TD odds & analysis
The metric: Swift leads Chicago with 20 red-zone opportunities while handling 45.7% of carries and an 8.9% target share on 57.3% of snaps. Monangai's 15 red-zone chances prevent the role from being a monopoly.
The matchup: Green Bay's interior of Javon Hargrave and Devonte Wyatt can close direct lanes, while linebacker Isaiah McDuffie cleans up behind them. Swift's better route is outside zone or a screen that gets him beyond the interior.
The value: The submitted price of 47% implies a 47% scoring probability. The working fair estimate is approximately 55%, creating a positive gap of about eight percentage points. That assessment depends on whether his hip and knee allow him to retain the lead role over the other injured backs, so the price is attractive under the current assumptions.
Luther Burden III anytime TD odds & analysis
The metric: Burden has earned a team-leading 23.6% target share, seven red-zone opportunities, and a 61.8% snap share. The target priority is stronger than the raw playing time alone suggests.
The matchup: Motion and slot usage can place him against Javon Bullard and Green Bay's linebackers instead of a static boundary corner. A quick slant or shallow cross suits Bagent's controlled passing profile.
The value: The submitted price of 26% implies a 26% scoring probability. The working fair estimate is approximately 33%, creating a positive gap of about seven percentage points. That assessment depends on whether Bagent continues using him as the primary first read, so the price is attractive under the current assumptions.
Colston Loveland anytime TD odds & analysis
The metric: Loveland has played 86% of snaps with a 14.6% target share and six red-zone opportunities. That combination gives him a stable route base and meaningful scoring involvement.
The matchup: Inline routes bring him toward Isaiah McDuffie and Green Bay's safeties, but the Packers' edge pressure may also force him to chip. His best touchdown route is a play-action seam when he is released cleanly.
The value: The submitted price of 29% implies a 29% scoring probability. The working fair estimate is approximately 35%, creating a positive gap of about six percentage points. That assessment hinges on Chicago not limiting his routes to compensate for injuries along the offensive line, making the price attractive under the current assumptions.
Rome Odunze anytime TD odds & analysis
The metric: Odunze has played 76.5% of snaps and drawn 16.3% of targets, but only two tracked red-zone opportunities. He owns a full route role without matching Burden's touchdown-specific volume.
The matchup: Boundary work should bring him toward Keisean Nixon or Brandon Cisse with safety help from Evan Williams. A back-shoulder throw is more realistic than repeated separation against bracketed coverage.
The value: The submitted price of 27% implies a 27% scoring probability. The working fair estimate is approximately 32%, creating a positive gap of about five percentage points. That assessment depends on whether Bagent is willing to challenge outside coverage rather than living underneath, so the price is attractive under the current assumptions.
Tyson Bagent anytime TD odds & analysis
The metric: Bagent is confirmed to start for Caleb Williams, creating a full-game opportunity for scrambles and occasional designed keepers. His historical role does not establish the same goal-line priority as the league's rushing specialists.
The matchup: Green Bay will pressure with its edges while trying to maintain contain. A scramble created by man coverage or a bootleg keeper is the likely scoring route, especially if the running backs are limited.
The value: The submitted price of 14% implies a 14% scoring probability. The working fair estimate is approximately 18%, creating a positive gap of about four percentage points. That assessment depends on whether Chicago allows him to use mobility instead of protecting him with a purely conservative plan, so the price is attractive under the current assumptions.
Cole Kmet anytime TD odds & analysis
The metric: Kmet has played 64.8% of the snaps but commands just a 6.1% target share and has yet to register a red-zone opportunity. His role has shifted toward blocking, with Loveland ahead of him in the receiving pecking order.
The matchup: Green Bay's pressure can keep him attached to the formation, further reducing routes. His narrow path is a heavy-set play-action leak after the defense follows Loveland across the field.
The value: The submitted price of 13% implies a 13% scoring probability. The working fair estimate is approximately 17%, creating a positive gap of about four percentage points. That assessment depends on whether he receives a designed goal-line route despite the protection demands, so the price is attractive under the current assumptions.
Kalif Raymond anytime TD odds & analysis
The metric: Raymond has a 62% snap share, 19.6% target share, and four red-zone opportunities. His involvement is substantial, although his smaller frame makes conventional contested end-zone work less likely.
The matchup: His speed from the slot can stress Bullard and create traffic for the Packers' zone exchanges. A jet-motion touch or a crossing route that creates room for yards after the catch offers the clearest path to a touchdown.
The value: The submitted price of 16% implies a 16% scoring probability. The working fair estimate is approximately 20%, creating a positive gap of about four percentage points. That assessment depends on whether Chicago manufactures touches rather than asking him to win static fades, so the price is a positive lean under the current assumptions.
Kaleb Johnson anytime TD odds & analysis
The metric: Johnson is priced as a backup running back, but his opportunities could increase significantly with Swift and Monangai both missing practice to open the week. For now, his role remains uncertain.
The matchup: Green Bay's interior front is difficult for an inexperienced back, but volume can overwhelm efficiency if injuries elevate him. A direct carry from inside the five is the only route that supports this price.
The value: The submitted price of 32% implies a 32% scoring probability. The working fair estimate is approximately 34%, creating a positive gap of about two percentage points. That assessment depends on whether at least one back ahead of him is limited or inactive, so the price is a positive lean under the current assumptions.
CHI Bears D/ST anytime TD odds & analysis
The metric: The defense needs a return touchdown and faces a Packers offense scoring on only 31.8% of drives. Chicago has blitzed on 39.7% of dropbacks, creating pressure volume but also coverage risk.
The matchup: Green Bay's offensive line has several practice limitations, giving Chicago's front a route to Love. A strip-sack behind a compromised edge or an interception on a hurried outbreaking throw is required.
The value: The submitted price of 18% implies an 18% scoring probability. The working fair estimate is approximately 18%, creating a positive gap of about 0.4 percentage points. That assessment depends on whether the line injuries persist and the takeaway occurs in returnable space, so the price is close to fair under the current assumptions.
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Game Script & Betting Context
Chicago carries an implied total of 24 points within a 45.5-point environment. As a 2.5-point favorite, the preferred script supports the backfield and Bagent's controlled passing game.
If the injured linemen or running backs are limited, targets could consolidate around Burden and the tight ends instead. Mild weather removes the usual Lambeau penalty, making quarterback quality and protection the principal variables.
For analysis across the full slate, see our NFL Week 5 anytime touchdown predictions.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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