My Raiders vs. Patriots prediction backs Las Vegas to cover as a 3.5-point road underdog today, despite New England riding high after an impressive Week 4 performance.
The Raiders have been surprisingly strong on both sides of the ball, and their stingy defense could make life difficult for Drake Maye and the Patriots this afternoon.
Find out why I'm siding with Las Vegas in my latest NFL picks for Week 5 on Sunday, Oct. 11.
TOP Pick
Raiders vs Patriots prediction: Raiders +3.5
The New England Patriots are getting the benefit of the doubt from traders due to home-field advantage, but the Las Vegas Raiders are arguably the better team on both sides of the ball.
Drake Maye looked much better against the Buffalo Bills in Week 4, but he has still thrown seven interceptions through four games compared to just four touchdowns. The Raiders have forced four interceptions this season and rank seventh in interception percentage at 3.17%.
Offensively, the Raiders are averaging 28.8 points per game and have gotten strong play from Kirk Cousins, who has thrown 11 touchdown passes.
I like Las Vegas to cover, especially if the line remains at the key number of 3.5 points.
COVERS INTEL: The Raiders are sixth in the NFL in defensive EPA per passing attempt (-0.11), making this a dangerous matchup for the struggling Maye.
Raiders vs Patriots combo
These two defenses both rank among the top 12 in the NFL in EPA per play and points allowed. The Patriots have played only one game that has reached this week’s total, and that came against a Bills team that tends to push the scoring higher on both sides of the ball.
I’m backing the Under.
To complete this combo, I’m taking Brock Bowers to record at least 75 receiving yards. Bowers has topped 86 yards in each game he’s played this season, while Las Vegas has targeted its tight ends 53 times, the most in the NFL.
A healthy Bowers should have little trouble reaching this mark on Sunday.
Raiders vs Patriots combo
- Raiders +3.5
- Under 45.5
- Brock Bowers Over 74.5 receiving yards
Raiders vs Patriots touchdown scorer: Ashton Jeanty
Ashton Jeanty has established himself as the Raiders’ go-to option in the running game, with 78 carries through four games.
He hasn’t scored a rushing touchdown yet this season, but his heavy workload should continue to give him opportunities near the goal line.
Jeanty has also been a key part of Las Vegas’ passing attack, recording two receiving touchdowns and 19 receptions this season.
With his involvement in both phases of the offense, he remains a strong candidate to find the end zone this week.
Want more NFL player props? Check out our NFL player prop projections!
Raiders vs Patriots player prop: Ashton Jeanty 60+ rushing yards
Jeanty leads the Raiders with 264 yards on the ground this season. Over the past two weeks, he's come in below the total we're targeting for this game, but he was tantalizingly close, picking up 56 and 58 yards in those contests.
New England hasn't been great against the run, ranking 21st in the league by giving up 4.4 yards per rushing attempt. That should mean a few more open lanes for Jeanty and a strong chance of getting to this reasonable total.
I'm taking him to get 60+ yards on the ground at up to 55%.
- Top picks: 3-0, +2.66 units
- Combos: 0-3, -3.00 units
Raiders vs Patriots odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Raiders +3.5 | Patriots -3.5
- Over/Under: Over 45.5 (50%) | Under 45.5 (51%)
- Moneyline: Raiders 37% | Patriots 64%
For the full slate of NFL matchups, check out our NFL odds board!
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Raiders vs Patriots weather
It should be cool and cloudy for the game, with heavier rains likely coming only later in the afternoon, though occasional showers might have a small impact on the passing attacks.
Check out our NFL weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
Raiders vs Patriots trend to know
The Raiders are 4-0 ATS this season. Find more NFL betting trends for Raiders vs. Patriots.
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How to watch Raiders vs Patriots
| Location | Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA |
| Date | Sunday, Oct. 11, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 1 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
Raiders vs Patriots latest injuries
Check out our NFL injuries page for updates on every team.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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