How are we already five weeks into the NFL season? It’s been an action-packed start to the year, and we now have a solid sample size to help shape our first touchdown scorer picks.
With Cincinnati Bengals running back Chase Brown headlining this week’s card, here are my best NFL picks for Sunday, Oct. 11.
Best Week 5 first touchdown scorer props
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Chase Brown
Nico Collins
Trey McBridePercentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Pick #1: Chase Brown
It might be three games without a touchdown, but this is the week for Chase Brown to find the end zone — and he could be the first Cincinnati Bengals player to do so.
Cincinnati is one of the biggest favorites on the slate Sunday against a Miami Dolphins team that has allowed seven touchdowns to opposing running backs through four games.
What really stands out is that the Dolphins have allowed an average of one receiving TD to opposing RBs per game, and that’s an area where Brown is a dangerous weapon.
Although he hasn’t recorded a receiving score this season, Brown has averaged six targets per game and hauled in a staggering 11 catches in Week 4 against the Jaguars.
- Matchup: Bengals vs. Dolphins
- Date/Time: Sunday, Oct.11 at 1:00 p.m. ET
- Location: Hard Rock Stadium
- TV: FOX
Pick #2: Nico Collins
Nico Collins has played just two games this season but still leads the Houston Texans in red-zone targets.
The Texans might be 0-4, but they’re strong favorites in this matchup against the Tennessee Titans, making this a potential “get-right” game for C.J. Stroud and his teammates.
Collins has scored three touchdowns on 18 targets across his two games. He’s a volume monster, a big-bodied receiver, and a dangerous red-zone threat.
Not only did Collins find paydirt in his most recent game against the Titans, but he also scored the first TD in his previous game against the Cowboys.
- Matchup: Texans vs. Titans
- Date/Time: Sunday, Oct. 11 at 1:00 p.m. ET
- Location: Nissan Stadium
- TV: CBS
Pick #3: Trey McBride
The Arizona Cardinals might be underdogs against the Detroit Lions, but on home soil, Trey McBride is in a prime spot to deliver.
He already has two touchdowns this season and is tied for the most red-zone targets among tight ends. That isn’t much of a surprise given McBride’s elite target share, with the former Colorado State standout seeing double-digit targets in every game this year.
At 6-foot-4, McBride is a target hog who now faces a Lions defense that has been disastrous against tight ends. Detroit has allowed an average of more than 100 receiving yards per game to the position, including a staggering six TDs, more than any other team in the league.
- Matchup: Lions vs. Cardinals
- Date/Time: Sunday, Oct. 11 at 4:25 p.m. ET
- Location: State Farm Stadium
- TV: FOX
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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