The undefeated San Francisco 49ers visit Lumen Field on Sunday, Oct. 11, at 4:25 p.m. ET as 3.5-point underdogs against the Seattle Seahawks in a pivotal NFC West clash.
These 49ers vs. Seahawks prop picks join my latest NFL picks, with two Unders and a Kyle Shanahan wrinkle leading the card.
Best 49ers vs Seahawks props
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| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Christian McCaffrey Under 49.5 rushing yards |
54% |
 A.J. Barner Under 24.5 receiving yards |
56% |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. 10+ rushing yards |
49% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Prop pick #1: Christian McCaffrey Under 49.5 rushing yards
I’ve already taken the Under on the San Francisco 49ers team total in my 49ers vs. Seahawks predictions, as I expect a championship-level performance from the Seattle Seahawks defense. That starts with slowing Christian McCaffrey, and I’d play CMC’s rushing Under down to 47.5 yards.
Both teams play at a slow pace, while the Seahawks rank third in defensive rushing success rate, according to RBSDM.com.
The Niners are also managing CMC’s snap count, likely with an eye toward keeping him fresh for the playoffs. He’s playing 66% of San Francisco’s offensive snaps, down from 83% last season.
McCaffrey averaged just 42.3 rushing yards across three meetings with Seattle last season, clearing 50 yards only once.
Prop pick #2: A.J. Barner Under 24.5 receiving yards
With the help of Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw, first-year 49ers DC Raheem Morris has taken away the middle of the field. Per Warren Sharp, San Francisco's opponents throw between the numbers at the fifth-lowest rate in the NFL, while their 6.0 air yards per attempt ranks third-lowest.
A.J. Barner caught just three passes for 14 yards across three games against San Francisco last season, including two games in which he had zero receiving yards. Fred Warner missed the final two meetings, while Greenlaw was playing for the Denver Broncos, so this matchup could be even tougher this time around.
Barner has 102 receiving yards this season and has gone Under his receiving yards prop in three of four games. I’d be willing to trade down to 22.5 receiving yards.
Prop pick #3: Deebo Samuel Sr. 10+ rushing yards
Necessity is the mother of invention, and 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan may need to pull a few tricks out of his sleeve to move the ball against Seattle's defense.
One of his favorites is getting Deebo Samuel Sr. involved in the run game, so I'd play his rushing prop up to 11+ yards. Deebo leads San Francisco in rushing success rate among ball-carriers with at least two attempts.
Samuel has rushed for 14 or more yards in three games this season, his first back with the Niners after spending last year in Washington. He's also reached 10+ rushing yards in 45 of 88 career regular-season and playoff games under Shanahan.
- Prop picks: 9-12, -3.38 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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