Week 4 gave us a reminder that NFL point spreads have a cruel sense of humor, so we're going back to work with a full 15-game slate.
My Week 5 NFL against the spread picks start Thursday night with the Cowboys laying more than a touchdown against a short-handed Buccaneers squad before diving into every Sunday and Monday matchup.
Here are my NFL picks for every game on the Week 5 board.
NFL picks against the spread for Week 5
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| Matchup |  |
|---|---|
 Buccaneers vs  Cowboys |
-7.5 |
 Eagles vs  Jaguars |
-7.5 |
 Bengals vs  Dolphins |
+7.5 |
 Raiders vs  Patriots |
+3.5 |
 Vikings vs  Saints |
-2.5 |
 Browns vs  Jets |
+1.5 |
 Colts vs  Steelers |
-2.5 |
 Texans vs  Titans |
-7.5 |
 Giants vs  Commanders |
+3.5 |
 Bears vs  Packers |
-2.5 |
 Broncos vs  Chargers |
+3.5 |
 Lions vs  Cardinals |
-4.5 |
 49ers vs  Seahawks |
+2.5 |
 Ravens vs  Falcons |
-3.5 |
 Bills vs  Rams |
-2.5 |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Expert Week 5 NFL ATS picks
Buccaneers vs Cowboys -7.5: Cowboys -7.5
Tampa Bay is asking rookie Jalon Daniels to handle a short-week road start with Baker Mayfield sidelined. Daniels can create with his legs, but Dallas should be able to make him chase points instead of protecting him.
The Cowboys’ defense has been vulnerable, so laying this many isn’t comfortable, but Tampa is 0-4 and missing its starting quarterback.
At 7.5 instead of double digits, I’ll pay the tax.
Eagles vs Jaguars -7.5: Jaguars -7.5
This number has ballooned, but Philadelphia has done almost nothing to stop it. The Eagles went 0-for-12 on third down and managed 172 yards last week, while injuries have piled up across the offense.
Jacksonville is playing cleaner football and gets an Eagles team traveling to London with very little offensive rhythm.
Laying more than a touchdown is ugly, but Philly has yet to cover a spread. I’ll stick with Jacksonville.
Bengals -7.5 vs Dolphins: Dolphins +7.5
Miami is hard to trust, which is exactly why getting more than a touchdown matters. Cincinnati has dropped two straight as a favorite, while Ja’Marr Chase is in concussion protocol and Tee Higgins is dealing with an adductor injury.
The Dolphins actually won the yards-per-play battle against Minnesota last week despite losing.
I don’t need Miami to be good here. I need a compromised Bengals offense to win by eight. That’s a different ask.
Raiders -3.5 vs Patriots: Raiders -3.5
At some point, we have to stop treating Las Vegas like a surprise team. The Raiders just pushed Kansas City to the final seconds, and their underlying play has been good enough to justify the jump in my power rankings.
New England’s win in Buffalo was impressive, but I’m not ready to upgrade the Patriots this aggressively off one result.
If Vegas really belongs in the league’s top tier, this is the kind of road spot it should handle.
Vikings -2.5 vs Saints: Vikings -2.5
Minnesota’s offense has been far from pretty, but the Vikings keep finding ways to win because the defense can wreck a game.
New Orleans is coming off a Monday night beatdown and now gets less recovery time against an aggressive Minnesota front. Justin Jefferson’s potential return would only widen the gap.
I don’t love laying points on the road with an offense this uneven, but keeping the number below three makes the Vikings the side.
Browns vs Jets -1.5: Browns +1.5
The wrong team looks favored. Cleveland has won three straight, while the Jets have lost three straight and managed only 157 total yards against Chicago last week.
The Browns don’t need Deshaun Watson to play superhero if their defense controls the game and the run game keeps them on schedule. New York hasn’t shown enough offensively to deserve laying points.
I’ll take the +1.5, and I think Cleveland can win outright.
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Colts vs Steelers -2.5: Steelers -2.5
This is my favorite scheduling spot of the week. Indianapolis is coming home from London and immediately heads back on the road, while Pittsburgh has extra rest after playing Thursday.
The Colts’ defense has struggled to create pressure, which gives Aaron Rodgers a much cleaner setup than he had in Cleveland.
Add home field and a spread still sitting below three, and I’m happy to make Indianapolis prove it can handle the travel tax.
Texans -7.5 vs Titans: Texans -7.5
Houston is 0-4, but this is finally the opponent that lets the Texans play from in front. C.J. Stroud threw for 347 yards against Dallas, and Tennessee simply hasn’t shown enough offense to punish Houston’s aggressive defense.
The Titans are averaging fewer than 14 points per game, which puts enormous pressure on them to keep this close.
I hate crossing seven, but the matchup still points to Houston controlling both sides of the ball.
Giants vs Commanders -3.5: Giants +3.5
Washington is being asked to cover more than a field goal after returning from London, with Jayden Daniels still working his way back from a dislocated elbow.
The Commanders have also allowed more than 30 points per game, which gives Jameis Winston room to be aggressive without being perfect.
New York will give us a few heart attacks, but +3.5 is exactly the number I want in what looks like a one-score game.
Bears -2.5 vs Packers: Bears -2.5
Tyson Bagent starting normally would send me running from a favorite, but Chicago can make this game easier on him.
The Bears just controlled the Jets with 89 offensive plays and have leaned on one of the league’s most productive rushing attacks. Green Bay has struggled to run the ball, which puts more of the game on its passing offense.
I’m not laying 3.5 with Bagent, but -2.5 at home is playable.
Broncos -3.5 vs Chargers: Chargers +3.5
Denver is the better team right now, but this is a divisional spread where the extra half-point matters.
The Broncos have been painfully slow starters, while Bo Nix has yet to play like a quarterback I want laying more than a field goal on the road. Los Angeles is battered up front, but Justin Herbert still gives the Chargers the higher passing ceiling.
I’ll take +3.5 and trust this stays tight.
Lions -4.5 vs Cardinals: Lions -4.5
Detroit gets the perfect get-right opponent after an ugly loss. Arizona entered last week at the bottom of the league in net yards per play, and its offense has struggled to create explosives consistently.
That’s a bad recipe against a Lions team that can force opponents into a track meet. Dan Campbell’s teams have also responded well after losses.
I’m betting Detroit’s offensive ceiling shows up again and turns this into a two-score game.
49ers vs Seahawks -2.5: 49ers +2.5
Seattle has been excellent defensively, but I still make San Francisco the better team on a neutral field. The Seahawks’ run game has been inefficient, which is a problem against a defense built to take away explosive plays and create long-yardage situations.
This feels like a field-goal game either way, so getting points with the team I rate higher is enough.
I’d love +3, but I’ll still take San Francisco at +2.5.
Ravens vs Falcons -3.5: Falcons -3.5
This handicap starts and ends with Lamar Jackson. Baltimore’s offense loses its biggest problem-solver if his ankle keeps him out, and Tyler Huntley simply doesn’t stress a defense the same way.
Atlanta is coming off its best offensive showing of the season and gets this game at home.
The market has moved a mile, so we’re not stealing a number, but if Lamar sits, Baltimore’s ceiling drops enough for me to lay 3.5.
Bills vs Rams -2.5: Rams -2.5
Buffalo is dangerous in any underdog role because Josh Allen can erase a bad handicap in two drives. The matchup still points me toward Los Angeles.
The Rams can attack Buffalo on the ground, where the Bills have been less convincing, and that keeps Matthew Stafford out of obvious passing downs.
Below three, I’ll lay it with the Rams.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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