The Detroit Lions’ pass rush should be licking its chops against an Arizona Cardinals offensive line missing tackle Paris Johnson.
My Lions vs. Cardinals prediction lays 5.5 points with Detroit for Sunday’s 4:25 p.m. ET kickoff at State Farm Stadium, with that trench mismatch driving one of my favorite NFL picks for Oct. 11.
TOP Pick
Lions vs Cardinals prediction: Lions -5.5
Even though I gave them out at a better price earlier this week, I'm still willing to trade the Detroit Lions -5.5 up to -6.
Detroit has a strength-on-weakness edge over the Arizona Cardinals in pass protection. According to ESPN, Arizona's offensive line is 31st in pass-blocking rate, and the Lions are fourth in pass-rush win rate. Meanwhile, the Cardinals just put starting left tackle Paris Johnson on season-ending IR.
The situational angle helps, too. Under head coach Dan Campbell, Detroit is 13-4-1 against the spread (ATS) as a favorite following a loss with a +6.8 spread differential.
I'm putting stock in this trend because Campbell has proven he can get the Lions to take their anger out on inferior teams after a loss.
COVERS INTEL: Since 2025, Arizona is 1-6 ATS as a home underdog with an 8.2 spread differential.
Lions vs Cardinals combo
I'm expecting Detroit to control this game without needing a shootout. I have the Lions winning 29-20, which gives them enough margin to cover while keeping the total comfortably below 54.5.
Detroit defensive coordinator Kelvin Sheppard also blew up at the media earlier this week, and I expect his defense to back him up on the field Sunday.
If the Lions play from ahead, it can lean on their running game in the second half, bleed clock, and make Arizona chase points against Detroit's aggressive pass rush. That same offensive control should give Lions tight end Sam LaPorta opportunities near the goal line.
Arizona already struggles covering tight ends, and Detroit's other weapons demand so much attention that LaPorta can find favorable matchups over the middle. A methodical Lions win with LaPorta finishing one drive fits all three legs nicely.
Lions vs Cardinals combo
- Detroit -5.5
- Under 54.5
- Sam LaPorta anytime touchdown
Lions vs Cardinals touchdown scorer: Sam LaPorta
Jahmyr Gibbs and Amon-Ra St. Brown command so much attention that it’s difficult for defenses to key in on tight LaPorta, who is a game-breaker in his own right. LaPorta has caught a touchdown in two games this season, and the Cardinals have surrendered the fourth-most fantasy points to the position.
LaPorta is Pro Football Focus’ sixth-ranked tight end, and the middle of Arizona’s defense is vulnerable in pass coverage. Cardinals starting linebackers Mack Wilson Sr. and Jack Gibbens, along with safety Budda Baker, all have failing pass-coverage grades.
- Top picks: 5-8, -3.55 units
- Combos: 4-9, +8.07 units
Lions vs Cardinals odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Lions -5.5 | Cardinals +5.5
- Over/Under: Over 54.5 (52%) | Under 54.5 (53%)
- Moneyline: Lions 72% | Cardinals 31%
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Lions vs Cardinals weather
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Lions vs Cardinals trend to know
Detroit is an NFL-best 13-5 ATS as a home favorite since Campbell took over in 2021. Find more NFL betting trends for Lions vs. Cardinals.
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How to watch Lions vs Cardinals
| Location | State Farm Stadium, Glendale, AZ |
| Date | Sunday, Oct. 11, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 4:25 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
Lions vs Cardinals latest injuries
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