Expert NFL Prop Picks: Week 5

Our Week 5 prop picks highlight the top opportunities to cash in on ahead of Sunday’s matchups.

Among our myriad of NFL picks is Seattle Seahawks receiver Rashid Shaheed, whose explosive playmaking ability could play a factor against a banged-up San Francisco 49ers secondary.

Week 5 prop picks at a glance

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Expert NFL prop picks

Eagles vs. Jaguars

• Kickoff: Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET
• TV: NFL Network
• Analyst: Neil Parker

Prop pick: Brian Thomas Jr. 25+ receiving yards

I’m anticipating Jacksonville wideout Brian Thomas Jr. to become a bigger part of the offense moving forward.

He recorded three receptions for 40 yards in each of the first two games of the season before and caught a key touchdown pass last week against the Cincinnati Bengals. 

Remember, Thomas also burst onto the scene during his 2024 rookie season with 1,282 receiving yards, so I would recommend this Over to 55% because of the low total and favorable matchup.

Check out our full Eagles vs. Jaguars predictions!

Browns vs. Jets

• Kickoff: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
• TV: CBS
• Analyst: Quinn Allen

Prop pick: Denzel Boston Over 48.5 receiving yards

Denzel Boston has been incredibly consistent for Cleveland. He's cashed the Over in three of four outings this season, and Boston is fresh off an 89-yard performance against the Steelers.

Boston is also averaging 21.8 yards per catch, meaning just a couple of long receptions could help him get close to this total. The wideout owns a 19% target share and is averaging 5.5 targets per contest through the first month.

With Boston seeing consistent opportunities and capable of creating chunk plays, he doesn't need massive volume to clear 49.5 yards. I like him to make the most of his targets and cash the Over again on Sunday.

Check out our full Browns vs. Jets predictions!

Bears vs. Packers

Prop pick: D'Andre Swift 70+ rushing yards

• Kickoff: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
• TV: FOX
• Analyst: Shawn Krest

Chicago got good news on D'Andre Swift late in the week. He’s been on the injury report since week 2 with hip and knee trouble and missed practice time early in the week.

He returned to the field Thursday, and reports surfaced Friday morning that he was a go for Sunday. He’ll probably get an increased workload, with the other half of the two-headed RB tandem — Kyle Monangai — likely out with turf toe.

Check out our full Bears vs. Packers predictions!

Bengals vs. Dolphins

• Kickoff: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
• TV: FOX
• Analyst: Nick Galaida

Prop pick: Jaylen Wright 25+ rushing yards

Jaylen Wright played second fiddle to Ollie Gordon II in Week 4 against the Vikings, but the Dolphins ran only 37 total offensive plays, which limited Wright's opportunities. 

Gordon led Miami in rushing against Minnesota, but Wright drew the start and was the only other running back to record a carry out of the backfield.

Head coach Jeff Hafley has repeatedly emphasized his desire to establish a ground game in 2026, which has led to one of the league's highest run rates through four weeks.

Expect Wright to see a healthy workload this weekend, and don't be surprised if he leads the Miami backfield in rush attempts against Cincinnati.

Check out our full Bengals vs. Dolphins predictions!

Raiders vs. Patriots

• Kickoff: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
• TV: CBS
• Analyst: Ed Scimia

Prop pick: Ashton Jeanty 60+ rushing yards

Jeanty leads the Raiders with 264 yards on the ground this season. Over the past two weeks, he's come in below the total we're targeting for this game, but he was tantalizingly close, picking up 56 and 58 yards in those contests.

New England hasn't been great against the run, ranking 21st in the league by giving up 4.4 yards per rushing attempt. That should mean a few more open lanes for Jeanty and a strong chance of getting to this reasonable total.

I'm taking him to get 60+ yards on the ground at up to 55%.

Check out our full Raiders vs. Patriots predictions!

Vikings vs. Saints

• Kickoff: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
• TV: FOX
• Analyst: Geoff Clark

Prop pick: T.J. Hockenson 40+ receiving yards

New Orleans has allowed the opposing starting tight end to gain at least 47 receiving yards in all four games this season, with a 75% completion rate. Minnesota TE T.J. Hockenson had game-highs in receptions (13) and receiving yards (119) last week against the Miami Dolphins.

Meanwhile, the same analysis about Jones and the Vikings WR corps applies to Hockenson's receiving yards prop in that he's not going to be the focus of NOLA's defense. Lastly, the middle of New Orleans' defense could be weaker Sunday since MLB Kaden Ellis is trending toward not playing. 

Check out our full Vikings vs. Saints predictions!

Texans vs. Titans

• Kickoff: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
• TV: CBS
• Analyst: Quinn Allen

Prop pick: C.J. Stroud Over 250.5 passing yards

Stroud is coming off his best performance of the season, throwing for 347 yards against Dallas and clearing this number for the third time in four games. He’s also surpassed 300 yards twice already.

Houston’s attack heavily favors the pass. The Texans rank sixth in passing at 285.3 yards per game but just 30th in rushing, making Stroud the clear engine of this offense.

Tennessee also allowed 285 passing yards to Baltimore last week, including 222 from Lamar Jackson before he exited in the second quarter. With Houston struggling to generate much on the ground, I expect Stroud to shoulder another sizable workload through the air.

Check out our full Texans vs. Titans predictions!

Giants vs. Commanders

• Kickoff: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
• TV: FOX
• Analyst: Tom Oldfield

Prop pick: Jayden Daniels Over 29.5 rushing yards

With reports suggesting no limitations for Daniels this weekend, I'm grabbing the Over on his rushing yards in a contest where his legs are Washington's best weapon, particularly in the expected rain at Northwest Stadium.

The Commanders would be wise to cut back on the designed runs for their star QB, but there will be openings to take off if an undermanned receiver group is blanketed down the field.

Daniels has gone past this O/U number in six of his past seven games and in all three career meetings with the Giants.

Check out our full Giants vs. Commanders predictions!

Colts vs. Steelers

• Kickoff: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
• TV: CBS
• Analyst: Neil Parker

Prop pick: Jaylen Warren 60+ rushing yards

Warren has rolled over defenses the past two weeks to the tune of 134 yards after contact and an elite 85 breakaway yards.

The field conditions and weather forecast for Sunday afternoon at Acrisure Stadium will force Pittsburgh into a run-heavy game script, and Indianapolis has been shredded on the ground with a 24th-ranked run defense DVOA while ranking 30th in PFF run defense grade.

Warren also sports a high-end 28.1% broken-tackle rate, and backfield mate Rico Dowdle has been limited with a toe injury in practice again this week after missing the past two games.

It all adds up to another big game on the ground for Warren, and I’d recommend this particular Over to 56%, in addition to Warren recording 65+ rushing yards to 53%.

Check out our full Colts vs. Steelers predictions!

Broncos vs. Chargers

• Kickoff: Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET
• TV: CBS
• Analyst: Nick Galaida

Prop pick: Justin Herbert 19+ passing completions

Justin Herbert is going to have to get the ball out of his hands quickly this weekend against the Broncos. Fortunately, he has an offensive coordinator in Mike McDaniel who has vast experience designing game plans to protect his quarterback when the offensive line isn’t healthy.

The Chargers will be without starting left tackle Rashawn Slater, starting right tackle Joe Alt, and starting center Tyler Biadasz in Week 5. They’ll also be down to their fourth-string left guard after injuries to Kayode Awosika and Trevor Penning.

Herbert completed 14 of 17 pass attempts in the second half of Week 4 against the Seahawks, playing behind a makeshift offensive line that had been ravaged by injuries. Expect McDaniel to prioritize getting the ball out fast, especially against a Denver pass rush that ranks 10th in pressure rate this season.

Check out our full Broncos vs. Chargers predictions!

Lions vs. Cardinals

• Kickoff: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
• TV: FOX
• Analyst: Geoff Clark

Prop pick: Jeremiyah Love 45+ rushing yards

Given Jeremiyah Love's projected role, we're getting an awesome price on his rushing prop, which is playable up to 50.5 yards. The average opposing starting running back has been lined at 65.5 rushing yards against Detroit, with two clearing their number and another finishing with 46 yards.

Love was the first running back selected in the 2026 NFL Draft at No. 4 overall, so Arizona has every reason to feature him. He's averaging roughly 14 carries and 55.8 rushing yards per game, including 90 and 63 yards the last two weeks.

The matchup is even better. According to Pro.NFL.com, Detroit is tied for an NFL-worst +1.0 rushing yards over expectation allowed per carry and allows the third-most yards before contact per carry.

Check out our full Lions vs. Cardinals predictions!

49ers vs. Seahawks

• Kickoff: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
• TV: FOX
• Analyst: Neil Parker

Prop pick: Rashid Shaheed 25+ receiving yards

Seattle speedster Rashid Shaheed has been relatively quiet through four weeks, recording just seven receptions for 73 yards despite seeing 15 targets.

His 53.8% catch rate is well below his 63.9% mark through his first four seasons in the league, while his 10.4 yards per reception and 10.1 aDoT are also down.

With the big-play threat capable of clearing this total on a single reception, I would recommend this Over down to 48% because the San Francisco secondary is also banged up, with starting strong safety Marques Sigle (ankle) already ruled out and slot corner Upton Stout nursing an AC joint sprain in his shoulder.

Check out our full 49ers vs. Seahawks predictions!

Ravens vs. Falcons

• Kickoff: Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET
• TV: NBC
• Analyst: Jason Logan

Prop pick: Mark Andrews 25+ receiving yards

Baltimore tight end Mark Andrews is to Tyler Huntley what big fluffy sweaters are to women each October. Pure comfort, baby.

Backup QBs usually lean on TEs for quick hits and checkdowns, and that’s been the case for Huntley during his two stints in Charm City.

He threw to his tight ends 16 times over two starts last year and looked to TEs a lot whenever called into action for the Ravens in 2021 and 2022. 

Andrews boasts the fifth-highest target share (23.5%) across the position entering Week 5 and has posted 24, 27, 49, and 49 yards in the opening four games of 2026.

His SNF forecasts all sit north of 30 receiving yards, with some models flirting with 40 yards from the veteran.

Check out our full Ravens vs. Falcons predictions!

Bills vs. Rams

• Kickoff: Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN/ABC
• Analyst: Josh Inglis

Prop pick: Keon Coleman 40+ receiving yards

The Bills have moved away from their 13-personnel usage, hitting a season low of just 13% last week. Keon Coleman has taken advantage of that and the DJ Moore injury, playing the second-highest snap percentage (78%) of all Buffalo pass catchers last week. Moore has yet to practice this week, and it looks like Coleman will be locked into a WR1/2 role in an indoor game with a 54.5-point total and a potential passing-game script.

The Rams have two starting defensive backs who are questionable for Monday, with Quentin Lake a DNP and Jaylen Watson limited on Friday.

Over his last three games, Coleman has logged 129 offensive snaps, run 67 routes, and recorded 216 yards on 15 targets. His receiving-yard total is low, with a projection of 54.15, making it the best +EV prop, per THE BLITZ. The Bills' top three wide receivers have a combined receiving-yard total of just 115, which is quite low considering Buffalo's implied team total is around 26 points.

Check out our full Bills vs. Rams predictions!

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