The Chicago Bears haven't been favored at Lambeau Field since 2006, but my Bears vs. Packers predictions expect them to make the most of their rare opportunity as 1.5-point road favorites today.
Coverage begins at 1 p.m. ET on FOX.
Chicago cruised to a 26-point victory in that 2006 matchup, and I'm backing the Bears to deliver another road cover today against their NFC North rivals.
Find out why I'm siding with Chicago in my latest NFL picks for Sunday, Oct. 11.
TOP Pick
Bears vs Packers prediction: Bears -1.5
The line has tightened up by a point, and the probability has dropped five points from when the game opened at the start of the week. I was willing to take the Chicago Bears, giving 2.5 at 54% then and would go at least that high at -1.5.
The Bears have won back-to-back games with different quarterbacks at the helm. They’ll have the same quarterback as the previous game for the first time in four weeks, as coach Ben Johnson has said Tyson Bagent would get the start.
The offense may not be as explosive as when Caleb Williams was running it, but Bagent has gotten everyone involved. Rome Odunze doubled his catches and yards totals with Bagent targeting him last week, and tight end Colston Loveland had more catches and yards in one game with Bagent than three with Williams and Case Keenum.
The Bears defense has also stepped up, allowing 12 or fewer points in three straight games.
COVERS INTEL: Chicago boasts an elite defense ranking fourth in scoring and second on third down (2-for-16 allowed last two weeks), while slashing explosive plays allowed to just 4.8 per game.
Bears vs Packers combo
The totals cutoff has gone up by a point as the week has gone on, but the percentage dropped, making it still a good risk. I’d take over 45.5 up to 55%.
The Bears were expected to have one of the most explosive offenses in recent NFL memory before Williams got hurt, and Ben Johnson’s offense has gradually found its way since the injury. The Packers finally became two-dimensional on offense last week, with their best rushing day of the season.
Chicago rushed for 232 yards last week, the fourth time they’ve topped 230 since the start of last season. That’s twice as often as any other team has done it. An effective run game opens up the passing game, which has a large number of options. The Bears are averaging 429 yards a week, and that’s including the 275-yard outing the week Williams got hurt mid-game.
Chicago’s offense is also boosted by the injury to Green Bay Packers linebacker Edgerrin Cooper, who had a season-ending Achilles tear last week. He’s been Green Bay’s best pass rusher, and the Packers’ run D will also suffer from his absence.
Bears vs Packers combo
- Bears -1.5
- Over 45.5
- Bears first-half moneyline
Bears vs Packers touchdown scorer: Christian Watson
Christian Watson has been Green Bay’s leading receiver and has scored half of the team’s touchdowns so far this season. He’ll be matched up with Bears corner Jaylon Johnson for much of the game, which could spell a huge day for Watson.
Johnson has not had a single pass deflection through four games, and he’s allowed a passer rating of 118.8 when quarterbacks target him. Receivers are gaining 16.5 yards per catch against him. He ranks 99th in pass coverage at PFF, and his overall PFF rating puts him 91st among cornerbacks.
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Bears vs Packers player prop: D’Andre Swift 70+ rushing yards
Chicago got good news on D'Andre Swift late in the week. He’s been on the injury report since week 2 with hip and knee trouble and missed practice time early in the week.
He returned to the field Thursday and reports surfaced Friday morning that he was a go for Sunday. He’ll probably get an increased workload, with the other half of the two-headed RB tandem—Kyle Monangai—likely out with turf toe.
Want more NFL player props? Check out our NFL player prop projections!
- Top picks: 13-9, +18.62 units
- Combos: 0-3, -3.00 units
Bears vs Packers odds today
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Bears -1.5 (49%) | Packers +1.5 (52%)
- Over/Under: Over 46.5 (51%) | Under 46.5 (50%)
- Moneyline: Bears 52% | Packers 48%
For the full slate of NFL matchups, check out our NFL odds board!
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Bears vs Packers weather
The game got moved from a 4:25 ET start to 1:00, meaning it will be played in the low 80s instead of the 70s. Either way, it’s expected to be clear with little wind.
Check out our NFL weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
Bears vs Packers trend to know
The Chicago Bears have covered the Spread in 15 of their last 22 games (+8.55 Units / 36% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Bears vs. Packers.
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How to watch Bears vs Packers today
| Location | Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI |
| Date | Sunday, Oct. 11, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 1 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
Bears vs Packers latest injuries
Check out our NFL injuries page for updates on every team.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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