My Bengals vs. Dolphins prediction is laying 6.5 points with Cincinnati against a Miami squad whose sputtering offense and leaky secondary have made for a miserable start to the season.
The Bengals have dropped two straight, but a visit to Hard Rock Stadium today could be just what they need. Kickoff is set for 1 p.m. ET on FOX, and I'm expecting Cincinnati to bounce back in my latest NFL picks for Week 5.
TOP Pick
Bengals vs Dolphins prediction: Bengals -6.5
Playable to 54%.
The Miami Dolphins have an NFL-worst (-55) point differential through four games and haven't finished a single game with better than a -6.7% net success rate. Their struggles have been a combination of extreme youth and poor quarterback play.
The Dolphins lead the league in starts by rookies (26) — no other team has more than 16 starts by rookies. Miami rookies have played 1,726 snaps, which is 559 more snaps than any other team. Inexperience has contributed to the Dolphins missing more tackles than the league average, and it's been a big part of their extreme struggles on special teams.
Malik Willis has been one of the league's least productive quarterbacks. He hasn't had better than a 40.5% success rate in any game this season, and he's had a negative EPA/play in three of Miami's four games to date.
The Cincinnati Bengals have some big question marks on their injury report heading into the weekend, but this is a game that Cincinnati should win comfortably even if Ja'Marr Chase or Tee Higgins are unavailable.
COVERS INTEL: The Dolphins are one of three NFL teams to have a negative net success rate in each of their first four games this season.
Bengals vs Dolphins combo
Playable to 42%.
In August, I wrote that the 2026 Dolphins might be the worst football team we have seen in the NFL since the 0-16 Browns. Nothing we have seen during the first month of the regular season has offered much evidence to disprove that prognostication.
Miami is averaging a league-worst 11.5 points per game. Only the Vikings and Chargers rank worse in offensive DVOA, and only the Chargers have committed a higher rate of turnovers.
The Dolphins rank 28th in defensive DVOA and 30th in completion percentage allowed over expected. Before Week 4, Miami hadn't forced a punt in the first half of a game in 2026.
Cincinnati's final injury report for Week 5 is of concern, but their key players are trending in a positive direction and seemingly have a good chance to play on Sunday. The Bengals offense ranks seventh in yards per drive and has gone 3-and-out at the eighth-lowest rate in the NFL this season. This is a winnable game for the Bengals, even if they aren't at full strength.
Bengals vs Dolphins combo
- Bengals moneyline
- Over 43.5
Bengals vs Dolphins touchdown scorer: Mike Gesicki
Playable to 29%.
Miami's zone defense has not been good early in 2026, which has allowed opposing tight ends to have a lot of success when playing the Dolphins. Miami ranks 32nd in DVOA against tight ends, allowing 78.9 receiving yards per game to the position.
In Week 4, T.J. Hockenson caught all 13 of his targets against the Dolphins. Overall, Miami linebackers Jordyn Brooks and Jacob Rodriguez allowed 18 receptions on 20 targets against Minnesota.
Mike Gesicki saw an expanded role after Ja'Marr Chase exited Week 4 early due to a concussion, finishing with 5 targets and 40 receiving yards. If Chase is forced to miss this weekend's game, Gesicki is likely to be one of the team's primary options through the air.
Even if Chase is on the field, Gesicki is a good bet to find space to operate against a poor defense.
Bengals vs Dolphins player prop: Jaylen Wright 25+ rushing yards
Playable to 53%.
Jaylen Wright played second fiddle to Ollie Gordon II in Week 4 against the Vikings, but the Dolphins ran only 37 total offensive plays, which limited Wright's opportunities.
Gordon led Miami in rushing against Minnesota, but Wright drew the start and was the only other running back to record a carry out of the backfield. Head coach Jeff Hafley has repeatedly emphasized his desire to establish a ground game in 2026, which has led to one of the league's highest run rates through four weeks.
Expect Wright to see a healthy workload this weekend, and don't be surprised if he leads the Miami backfield in rush attempts against Cincinnati.
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- Top picks: 1-2, -1.00 units
- Combos: 1-2, +1.17 units
Bengals vs Dolphins odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Bengals -6.5 | Dolphins +6.5
- Over/Under: Over 43.5 (51%) | Under 43.5 (50%)
- Moneyline: Bengals 75% | Dolphins 27%
For the full slate of NFL matchups, check out our NFL odds board!
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Bengals vs Dolphins weather
The forecast in Miami is uneventful, with the temperature near 90 degrees, a low chance of rain, and minimal wind.
Check out our NFL weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
Bengals vs Dolphins trend to know
The Bengals have covered the spread in 11 of their last 19 games for +2.20 units and a 11% ROI. Find more NFL betting trends for Bengals vs. Dolphins.
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How to watch Bengals vs Dolphins
| Location | Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Fla. |
| Date | Sunday, Oct. 11, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 1 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
Bengals vs Dolphins latest injuries
Check out our NFL injuries page for updates on every team.
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