Another 2-1 result last week brings Gimme The OVER to 8-4 on the season. Let’s keep it rolling!
My Week 5 Over/Under picks start with Giants/Commanders, where whoever set the total might've been sleeping. Then it’s Lions/Cardinals, where Detroit’s embarrassing defense has me coming back for more despite a massive total.
There’s a twist in this week’s NFL picks: don't Gimme the Over for Vikings/Saints. Minnesota keeps dragging opponents into the mud, and I’m happy to get dirty.
NFL Week 5 Over/Under picks
Giants vs 
Commanders
Lions vs 
Cardinals
Vikings vs 
SaintsPercentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Expert Week 5 NFL Over/Under picks
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, please see our odds calculator.
Giants vs Commanders: Over 41.5
The New York Giants are 12-4 to the Over in their last 16 games, while the Washington Commanders are 7-1 in their last eight. I’m happy to keep riding that scoring train.
Washington allows 30.5 points per game, and neither defense puts up much resistance near the goal line. The Giants rank 28th in red-zone touchdown percentage allowed, while the Commanders are 30th. New York also ranks 30th on third down. These defenses struggle to get off the field.
Jayden Daniels is set to return, giving Washington some extra pop that will help add to the scoring. We don’t need a full-blown shootout to clear 41.5. Gimme the Over!
Lions vs Cardinals: Over 54.5
A high total? Sure. Enough to scare me off? Absolutely not.
The Detroit Lions are a perfect Over team: an offense averaging 29.8 points paired with a humiliating defense allowing 31.8. The Arizona Cardinals aren’t exactly shutting anybody down either, surrendering 29.3 points per game.
The Lions are 9-2 to the Over in their last 11, averaging 57.5 combined points. Six of these teams’ eight games this season have reached at least 55 combined points. Clearing 54.5 is hardly asking them to enter unfamiliar territory.
Detroit ranks 31st in red-zone TD percentage allowed, while Arizona ranks 25th. Expect touchdowns when these offenses get close. Field goals can take the afternoon off for this one.
Vikings vs Saints: Under 41.5
If Detroit is a perfect Over team, Minnesota is a perfect Under team.
The Minnesota Vikings allow an NFL-best 12.8 points per game but rank dead last in offensive yards per play. They can suffocate an opponent and spend the afternoon struggling to move the ball themselves. That’s a beautiful recipe for lots of punting and a low-scoring game.
That combination has produced a 6-1 Under run, with Minnesota’s last three games averaging just 25.3 combined points. Now comes a New Orleans Saints offense whose running game ranks 28th in yards per carry. Good luck finding much breathing room against this defense that’s also first in the NFL in QB pressure percentage.
DON’T Gimme the Over in New Orleans!
Week 5 Over/Under combo
Giants/Commanders Over 41.5
Lions/Cardinals Over 54.5
Vikings/Saints Under 41.5
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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