The Baltimore Ravens and Atlanta Falcons bring contrasting strengths into a matchup that could create several player-prop opportunities on Sunday, Oct. 11.
My Ravens vs. Falcons prop picks target three different angles, including a rushing fade, a receiving Under, and a quarterback volume play.
Check out more NFL picks ahead of Week 5.
Best Ravens vs Falcons props
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| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Derrick Henry Under 79.5 rushing yards |
54% |
 Bijan Robinson Under 24.5 receiving yards |
49% |
| Michael Penix Jr. 19+ pass completions |
53% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Prop pick #1: Derrick Henry Under 79.5 rushing yards
Give me the Under on Derrick Henry's rushing prop down to 77.5 yards.
The Atlanta Falcons are allowing the fewest yards per carry (2.7) and rushing yards per game (48.3). The Falcons are also the only team to hold opponents to negative yards after contact per carry through the first three weeks, according to Pro.NFL.com.
With Lamar Jackson out this week, Atlanta can pack the box to keep Henry from going off. He rushed for fewer than 72 yards in two of the four games Lamar missed last season.
Since I have the Falcons winning and covering, there’s also a world where the Baltimore Ravens abandon the run earlier than usual.
Prop pick #2: Bijan Robinson Under 24.5 receiving yards
Bijan Robinson Under 24.5 receiving yards has value up to 53%.
Baltimore has allowed the fewest receiving yards (37) to opposing running backs, while Robinson has reached 20+ receiving yards in only three games this season. Ravens LB Roquan Smith also owns the fourth-highest coverage grade among 67 qualified linebackers, per Pro Football Focus.
That said, I expect Kyle Hamilton to draw Robinson in coverage, as a linebacker can’t realistically match Bijan in space. Hamilton has the size, athleticism, and versatility to follow Robinson across different alignments.
With Drake London as Atlanta’s only other true game-breaking pass-catcher, Baltimore can devote extra attention to taking Robinson away underneath. That would be a massive first step toward the road team covering, as Jason Logan’s Ravens vs. Falcons predictions expect.
Prop pick #3: Michael Penix Jr. 19+ pass completions
I’m counting on Baltimore making Michael Penix Jr. beat them, and I’d play his Over up to 20+ completions. Penix has completed at least 19 passes in seven of his 14 career starts, but hasn’t done so this season because Atlanta has controlled both games and hasn’t needed much passing volume.
Penix’s completion rate is 3.1 percentage points above expectation, according to NFL Next Gen Stats, while Baltimore ranks 22nd in opponent completion rate.
The Ravens are allowing 22.8 completions per game, and every opposing quarterback has reached at least 19. If Baltimore takes away Atlanta’s preferred ground game, Penix will see enough volume to clear this number.
- Prop picks: 9-12, -3.38 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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