NFL survivor pools have long been a popular content for football fans, but what if you took a survivor pool... and made it for touchdowns?
Well, we've got the answer, as we run our first Covers NFL expert survivor pool!
Eight of our brightest football minds draft one player each week to find paydirt — Week 4 saw seven of our eight experts (again) correctly predict a TD.
They avoided a strike, with the lone outlier drawing their second X of the season — follow along with our team's selections this week as we look to go a perfect 8/8... and tail the NFL TD picks you also think will deliver!
Covers NFL Touchdown Survivor rules
- Random draft order each week for player selection (two analysts cannot have the same player in the same week).
- Each analyst chooses one player. Once he's selected, they cannot select him again this year.
- If your pick is correct: Gold star. If your pick is wrong: You get a strike.
- Three strikes... and you're out of the competition.
Covers NFL TD Survivor Picks: Week 5
| Draft No. | Expert Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dustin Saracini Jonathan Taylor |
59% |
| 2 | Neil Parker Chase Brown |
58% |
| 3 | Rob Paul Jahmyr Gibbs |
79% |
| 4 | Jon Metler Trey McBride |
44% |
| 5 | Josh Inglis Bijan Robinson |
65% |
| 6 | Jason Logan Kyren Williams |
60% |
| 7 | Joe Osborne Amon-Ra St. Brown |
55% |
| 8 | Chris VasilePuka Nacua |
53% |
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Dustin Saracini's TD play: Jonathan Taylor 59%
Week 5 draft spot: No. 1
The Colts’ offense funnels strictly through JT — he’s averaging 21 totes and four targets per game this season, so you can expect another heavy dose of him against a middle-of-the-pack rushing defense.
On a rainy Sunday in Pittsburgh, Jonathan Taylor will be an absolute workhorse.
Neil Parker's TD play: Chase Brown 58%
Week 5 draft spot: No. 2
The Bengals have a banged up receiving corps, and Chase Brown hasn’t scored since the opener. Miami has also surrendered seven TDs to running backs, so a date with the Dolphins is a perfect spot to give Brown his turn to celebrate six.
Rob Paul's TD play: Jahmyr Gibbs 79%
Week 5 draft spot: No. 3
I'm on my last legs here and going back to the Lions, despite Amon-Ra St. Brown letting me down last week. Jahmyr Gibbs is arguably the best running back in the NFL and ranks top five in forced missed tackles (25), 10+-yard runs (12), and total TDs (7).
Jon Metler's TD play: Trey McBride 44%
Week 5 draft spot: No. 4
He has logged double-digit targets in every single game he’s played in this year, and the Lions’ defense might be the easiest matchup he gets all season. Kelvin Sheppard is a dead man walking as the DC, and Trey McBride could very well be the reason he gets fired.
This defense has been torched by tight ends all season, and there’s probably no other scenario in which I would even consider using a tight end in this pool other than this specific matchup — it saves me some big-name RBs for later.
More NFL touchdown picks at Covers
Josh Inglis's TD play: Bijan Robinson 65%
Week 5 draft spot: No. 5
I've already used Henry, CMC, and Gibbs. Square out of the gates, but the Falcons are among the best EPA offenses since Penix has suited up and this is a great week to bet against the Ravens.
Bijan Robinson likely gets two TDs before he gets zero.
Jason Logan's TD play: Kyren Williams 60%
Week 5 draft spot: No. 6
Kyren Williams is a scoring threat on the ground and through the air. This game has the tallest total on the board and a Bills run stop that couldn’t slow down a runaway shopping cart.
Love these MNF sweats.
Joe Osborne's TD play: Amon-Ra St. Brown 55%
Week 5 draft spot: No. 7
Let's attack the second-most probable TD scorer in one of the highest totals of the week.
Arizona has struggled to contain receivers, allowing a league-high eight TDs to the position, and Amon-Ra St. Brown already has five TDs — with a team-high 46 targets, he should find the end zone again.
Chris Vasile's TD play: Puka Nacua 53%
Week 5 draft spot: No. 8
Buffalo ranks 28th in total defense and 27th against the pass. This game carries a 54.5-point total, the kind of environment I want for a TD pick.
Plus, Puka Nacua saw immediate volume in his return, drawing 14 targets for 125 yards.
How this week's draft order was decided
Our analysts went into Tron mode for the Week 5 Covers Anytime TD Survivor Draft 🏈 The mascots did some serious damage, and now our draft order is officially set! ✍️ Credit: https://t.co/ADhHDDvA46 https://t.co/fpN4k4u2RA
— Covers.com (@Covers) October 8, 2026
Week 5 TD combo: Covers Survivor Pool edition
Let's put some extra juice into tailing our touchdown survivor picks! Put our TD picks together in a combo, with this week equaling a 48.2 payout!
Jonathan Taylor
Chase Brown
Jahmyr Gibbs
Trey McBride
Bijan Robinson
Kyren Williams
Amon-Ra St. Brown
Puka Nacua
Covers Weekly TD Survivor tracker
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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