The past two weeks of NFL football have had more feisty dogs than the off-leash park around the corner.
Point spread pups were a collective 20-10-2 ATS in Weeks 3 and 4 (65%), with road underdogs barking to the tune of 6-2-1 ATS last week.
My favorite NFL underdog picks for Week 5 include two undervalued visitors and one home pup hosting a backup QB.
Here’s to hoping NFL picks getting the points keep cashing in Week 5.
Last week: 2-1 ATS
Season: 5-7 ATS
NFL Week 5 underdog picks
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
Start trading with Kalshi today!
Sign up now using our exclusive Kalshi promo code 'COVERS60' and trade $25 on any event contracts to get $60!
*Eligible U.S. locations only
Packers +3 vs Bears
The Green Bay Packers should be down a couple shoe sizes considering how many times they shot themselves in the foot in Week 4.
The Cheeseheads out-uglied Tampa Bay for a 17-14 road win but the path to victory should have been much smoother.
Green Bay had a fumble on the 5-yard line and an interception on the 10-yard line, along with several penalties that had this offense in bad situations.
Green Bay hosts this NFC North rivalry for its first “normal” home stand of the season. The Packers have played three of four away from Lambeau Field with the lone home game coming in a Thursday night loss to Atlanta.
The Chicago Bears are playing with house money after two home wins under backup QBs. Tyler Bagent is in place of Caleb Williams in Week 5, and while he’s a steady substitute, he’s limited in his ability to push the ball downfield (5.8 ADOT).
I expect the Packers to punch back on offense, cleaning up those red-zone bloopers and offensive penalties. Green Bay also got a stellar effort from a revamped offensive line against the Bucs’ blitz-happy schemes. It allowed no sacks and just two hits on QB Jordan Love and faces a Bears' blitz that brings extra bodies at a similar rate.
Divisional home dogs are challenging pumpkin spice for the flavor of the fall, going 12-5 ATS entering Week 5. Put those divisional pups at home and they’re 5-2 ATS.
Browns +2.5 at Jets
This matchup of much-maligned franchises is the NFL equivalent of those early 2000s “bum fights” that laid the foundation for the empire known as YouTube.
The New York Jets appear as emaciated as some of those unhoused combatants in Week 5.
There are several injuries on offense to monitor – namely RB Breece Hall – but the defense took hits with DL Braiden McGregor gone for the year and top corner Jarvis Brownlee Jr. in concussion protocol.
That Jets defense got rag-dolled by the Bears in Week 4, giving up 232 yards rushing on 54 carries for 32 first downs and almost 43 minutes in TOP for their opponent.
The Cleveland Browns come in with something this club hasn’t felt in a long, long time: Momentum. The Browns are on a three-game streak and playing on extra rest after winning last Thursday.
Cleveland ranks Top 10 in EPA allowed per play during this stretch, with the pass rush coming to life. The Browns have 12 sacks and have seen a surge in pressure rate without leaning into the blitz, getting great work out of Jared Verse and the front four.
That’s bad news for New York QB Geno Smith, who’s been great when kept clean (No. 9 at PFF) but has his rating drop to 20th under pressure. His offensive line has allowed 12 sacks and ranks 26th in adjusted sack rate at FTN.
Ravens +3.5 at Falcons
Life without Lamar Jackson is nothing new to the Baltimore Ravens.
While there’s no denying Jackson’s worth (we did a story about it), the Ravens are used to “breaking the glass” in case of emergency. Baltimore is 6-11 SU without Jackson at QB but 8-9 ATS in those outings.
Backup QB Tyler “Snoop” Huntley is no stranger to the pressure of filling Lamar’s shoes and was solid in the second half of Sunday’s win over Tennessee after Jackson left with an ankle injury.
It also helps that Baltimore has RB Derrick Henry and a rushing attack that ranks No. 2 in success rate. That means more manageable second and third downs for Huntley on Sunday night.
The Atlanta Falcons were originally 4.5-point home underdogs in the look-ahead markets this summer and sat as high as +6 before the events of Week 4. After Jackson’s ankle injury and an impressive win at New Orleans on Monday, this market has made a massive move with Atlanta now laying more than a field goal.
The Falcons not only take the field on a short week, but their public perception is pumping with positivity after two prime-time wins. I feel that’s taxing this team too much on SNF.
The Ravens’ defense is the highest-rated stop unit Atlanta has faced this season, and Baltimore head coach Jesse Minter is focusing on improving the run stop now that his linebacker corps is healthy, including the potential return of Trey Hendrickson.
This feels like a rock fight with both teams selling out to stop the run. I’ll buy back the big move on the Ravens, hanging on to that half-point hook for dear life.
Week 5 underdog combo
Browns +2.5
Ravens +3.5
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
