Looking at Super Bowl LXI markets, the Buffalo Bills and Los Angeles Rams sit atop the odds board to win the Lombardi Trophy heading into Week 5.
Luckily, we don’t have to wait until February to find out just who the best team is, with these contenders clashing on Monday Night Football.
My Bills vs. Rams predictions measure the market around MNF and the unique edges, giving you my early leans and NFL picks for Oct. 12.
Bills vs Rams predictions
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
Enjoying Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account
Early Bills vs Rams spread pick: Rams -2.5
This will be just the second home game for the Los Angeles Rams after back-to-back road trips the past two weeks and an opening game “Down Under.”
The Rams may have turned a page after stumbling out of the blocks a bit in 2026. They put in a ballsy second-half push at Philadelphia, rallying from a 10-point hole in the final four minutes of the fourth quarter.
Los Angeles has the rushing game to bully the Buffalo Bills in Week 5. The Rams are a Top 10 team in success rate per handoff and Run DVOA, facing a Bills stop unit rated near the bottom in stopping the run.
Los Angeles’ offensive line had a lot to do with that efficiency, ranking among the elite in run-block win rate and adjusted line yards. Buffalo may be without one of its best defensive linemen, with Ed Oliver leaving Week 4’s loss with a knee injury.
Start trading with Kalshi today!
Sign up now using our exclusive Kalshi promo code 'COVERS60' and trade $25 on any event contracts to get $60!
*Eligible U.S. locations only
Early Bills vs Rams total pick: Under 54.5
The Bills sit right next to L.A. in rushing metrics, boasting the top spot in many run-game measurements. However, the Rams defense is a Top 10 run-stop unit in many analytics, and that could force Buffalo to throw more.
The Bills have enjoyed the addition of deep threat D.J. Moore (second in targets), but he left Week 4 with a shoulder injury – the second time he’s left a contest since joining Buffalo. Without Moore, this passing attack lacks a reliable downfield option versus a talented Rams secondary.
This is the tallest total on the board, and for good reason. I’m leaning Under but want to see if this number swells with public support for a high-scoring finish in the Week 5 finale. Then I'll buy back the move.
Bills vs Rams odds
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Bills vs Rams spread: Rams -2.5
- Bills vs Rams moneyline: Bills 41%, Rams 59%
- Bills vs Rams Over/Under: 54.5
How to watch Bills vs Rams
- Date: Monday, Oct. 12, 2026, 8:15 p.m. ET
- City: Inglewood, Calif.
- Venue: SoFi Stadium
- TV: ESPN/ABC
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
