Joe Burrow and Trevor Lawrence have been going toe-to-toe since their college days, and the latest installment is the game of the weekend as the Cincinnati Bengals host the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Cincinnati enters as a 2.5-point favorite, but both teams have shown their offensive firepower through the first three weeks, and my Jaguars vs. Bengals predictions point to a shootout at Paycor Stadium.
Take a closer look at these AFC contenders with my free NFL picks and count down to this October 4 clash, with kickoff set for 1 pm ET.
TOP Pick
Jaguars vs Bengals prediction: Over 51.5
Two of the NFL’s most dangerous offenses collide in this marquee Week 4 showdown, with the Cincinnati Bengals (26.7 PPG) and Jacksonville Jaguars (27.3 PPG) looking like a perfect combo to cash the Over on Sunday.
It starts with big-play potential that sparks quick scoring drives. Trevor Lawrence has 65 completions of 20+ yards since the start of the 2025 season (only two AFC QBs have more), and he should add to that tally here, with the Bengals allowing a 20+ yard reception to five different receivers in Pittsburgh in Week 3.
Joe Burrow is primed for similar success when he drops back. Jacksonville is allowing 8.4 yards per pass attempt, tied for third-most in the league, and Cincinnati has two walking mismatches in Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins.
The Over is 7-2-1 in the last 10 meetings between these squads, and I’d bet this up to 55%.
COVERS INTEL: Neither team will be fazed on 3rd-and-long. Both rank in the Top 10 in 3rd down completion rate, with the Jaguars at 53% and the Bengals at 46%. Another reason to back the offenses to put up points.
Jaguars vs Bengals combo
These teams served up a 31-27 thriller last season, and I'll sign up for a similar scoreline here. Burrow's weapons hold a slight edge for me in that type of matchup, and the Bengals QB boasts a 24-17 SU career record at home.
Cincinnati is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings between these squads, and this is a big step up for the Jacksonville defense after facing more pedestrian offenses so far.
I'll round out this combo with the Over on Higgins' receiving yards tally. He's racked up 90+ yards in back-to-back games, and his 6'4 frame makes him a key man for Burrow on third down.
Higgins has seen 23 targets through his first three outings, only narrowly trailing Chase in that category, and I expect the Bengals' offensive line to hold up well enough for the passing attack to thrive this weekend.
Jaguars vs Bengals combo
- Over 51.5
- Bengals moneyline
- Tee Higgins Over 59.5 receiving yards
Jaguars vs Bengals touchdown scorer: Mike Gesicki
With defenses so focused on stopping Cincinnati's other red zone threats, Mike Gesicki offers nice value at this price. He's already caught two touchdown passes this season, and he's a lock for single coverage around the goal line.
While the Jaguars have kept tight ends quiet in the opening weeks of the season, they gave up nine TDs to that position group last season.
In what feels like a high-scoring battle, look for Gesicki to have one of the more favorable matchups when the Bengals are knocking on the door, and Jacksonville's stingy run defense could force the hosts to steer away from the ground game in those moments.
- Top picks: 1-1, -0.15 units
- Combos: 0-2, -2.0 units
Jaguars vs Bengals odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Jaguars +2.5 | Bengals -2.5
- Over/Under: Over 51.5 (51%) | Under 51.5 (50%)
- Moneyline: Jaguars 43% | Bengals 57%
For the full slate of NFL matchups, check out our NFL odds board!
More Covers NFL trading tools
Jaguars vs Bengals weather
Look for mild, cloudy conditions in Cincinnati on Sunday and temperatures in the high 60s at kick-off, setting the stage for an up-tempo contest and elite quarterback play.
Check out our NFL weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
Jaguars vs Bengals trend to know
The Over is 6-3 in the Jaguars' last nine road games. Find more NFL betting trends for Jaguars vs. Bengals.
How to watch Jaguars vs Bengals
| Location | Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati, OH |
| Date | Sunday, Oct. 4, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 1 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
Jaguars vs Bengals latest injuries
Check out our NFL injuries page for updates on every team.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
