The Chicago Bears (-3.5) will look to follow up an impressive Week 3 win as they host the New York Jets on Sunday afternoon.
Both teams are missing key pieces on offense this week, and that has be targeting the Under in my Jets vs. Bears prediction.
Let's dive deeper into this game and break down my free NFL picks for Sunday, October 4.
TOP Pick
Jets vs Bears prediction: Under 42.5
The New York Jets and Chicago Bears have both found solid success defensively early this season, and with both missing key offensive weapons, the Under is a strong play in Week 4.
The Bears have allowed a total of just 16 points over the last two weeks, and should continue that success against a one-dimensional New York attack that only averages 3.3 yards per run.
Meanwhile, the Jets are allowing only 258.3 yards per game to their opponents, and have less to worry about from Chicago's offense with Caleb Williams out of the lineup again this week as Tyson Bagent likely receives the starting nod.
These teams will struggle to combine for six touchdowns, and they'll need at least that to realistically threaten the total. I'm taking the Under at 42.5 points with 55% or lower probability.
COVERS INTEL: The Jets have the fourth-lowest EPA per rush in the NFL (-0.24), and they will have even less success on the ground without a healthy Breece Hall on Sunday. 
Jets vs Bears combo
The Bears are coming off an impressive 27-7 win over the Philadelphia Eagles with Case Keenum at quarterback, who threw for 247 yards and two scores in that game. That's enough to give me a lot more belief in the Chicago offense than I have in the Jets, who have averaged 21.3 ppg against some fairly weak defenses. At home, I like the Bears giving 3.5 points.
Another reason to believe in the Chicago attack is D'Andre Swift. In three games, Swift has put up 253 yards on the ground, part of a Bears attack that leads the NFL at 5.3 yards per rush. Swift should once again get heavy usage with Williams out of the lineup, and I'm backing him to get 60+ yards on the ground.
Jets vs Bears combo
- Under 42.5
- Bears -3.5
- D'Andre Swift 60+ rushing yards
Jets vs Bears touchdown scorer: Kyle Monangai
Speaking of that Chicago rushing attack, there's far more than one back for the Jets to worry about on Sunday. Even with Williams out of the lineup, there's also Kyle Monangai, who is averaging 5.9 yards per run over 30 carries so far this year.
Monangai only has one touchdown so far this season, but he's consistently getting 10 rushes per game. That usage and his big play ability -- he sprang a 61-yard run in Week 1 -- makes him a TD threat every week. I like Monangai to score at up to 40%.
- Top picks: 2-0, +1.70 units
- Combos: 0-2, -2.00 units
Jets vs Bears odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Jets +3.5 | Bears -3.5
- Over/Under: Over 42.5 (52%) | Under 42.5 (49%)
- Moneyline: Jets 38% | Bears 63%
For the full slate of NFL matchups, check out our NFL odds board!
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Jets vs Bears weather
It'll be sunny and comfortable with only mild wind at Soldier Field on Sunday, meaning weather shouldn't play a factor in this game.
Check out our NFL weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
Jets vs Bears trend to know
The Jets and Bears have each played Under this week's total in two of their first three games this season.. Find more NFL betting trends for Jets vs. Bears.
How to watch Jets vs Bears
| Location | Soldier Field, Chicago, IL |
| Date | Sunday, Oct. 4, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 1 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
Jets vs Bears latest injuries
Check out our NFL injuries page for updates on every team.
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