The red-hot Minnesota Vikings are priced as a heavy 10.5-point favorite on Sunday at U.S. Bank Stadium against the winless Miami Dolphins, with kickoff scheduled for 4:05 p.m. ET.
My Dolphins vs. Vikings predictions are targeting the hosts to cover behind their respectable offense and dominant defense, which should have no issues shutting down Miami.
Find out more in my NFL picks for Sunday, Oct. 4.
TOP Pick
Dolphins vs Vikings prediction: Vikings -10.5
Play to 55%.
The Minnesota Vikings have come out of the gates on fire at 3-0. Carson Wentz held down the fort while Kyler Murray was injured, and now Murray is back. He wasn't great in Week 3, but did enough to lead Minnesota past Tampa Bay, 23-16.
Offensively, the Vikings shouldn't have much trouble producing. The Miami Dolphins rank 28th in points allowed at 28.7 per game and have also struggled against the pass, giving Murray plenty of opportunities with his weapons, despite Justin Jefferson's status being unclear right now.
Minnesota's defense should thrive as well. The Vikings lead the league in third-down conversion rate, rank fourth in fewest rushing yards allowed, and second in scoring defense at just 13.7 points per game.
This should be a comfortable win for Minnesota against a Dolphins team with a brutal -50 point differential.
COVERS INTEL: The Dolphins have been outscored by an average of 16.7 points per game through three weeks. 
Dolphins vs Vikings combo
I don't just expect this to be a lopsided Vikings win — I also believe it will be relatively high-scoring.
Miami's defense has been getting dominated, and I expect Murray to look much sharper in Week 4 after making his return last weekend.
Minnesota is averaging 23.7 points per game, and while Miami ranks second-last in the NFL in scoring, the Dolphins shouldn't need to contribute much for the Over to cash.
I also like Minny to cover the first-half spread. The Dolphins have allowed Over 12.5 first-half points in every game so far, and Murray's offense should be able to hit the ground running at home.
Dolphins vs Vikings combo
- Vikings -10.5
- Over 38.5
- Vikings -6.5 1H
Dolphins vs Vikings touchdown scorer: Jordan Addison
Play to 45%.
Jefferson hasn't practiced this week, and it remains to be seen if he'll be available as he continues to rehab an ankle injury. If he doesn't suit up, Jordan Addison will have an even larger role than he already has.
While Addison has just one TD so far, he's second on the team in targets with 16, just one behind Jefferson. The ex-USC star stepped up when Jefferson exited last week, finishing with five catches for 90 yards and a score.
With big-play ability and the strong chance of operating as WR1 on Sunday, Addison is worth a serious look to find the end zone.
- Top picks: 1-2, +0.08 units
- Combos: 0-2, -2.00 units
Dolphins vs Vikings odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Dolphins +10.5 | Vikings -10.5
- Over/Under: Over 38.5 (50%) | Under 38.5 (51%)
- Moneyline: Dolphins 17% | Vikings 84%
For the full slate of NFL matchups, check out our NFL odds board!
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Dolphins vs Vikings weather
Weather won’t be a factor for Dolphins vs. Vikings, with U.S. Bank Stadium providing a controlled indoor environment.
Check out our NFL weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
Dolphins vs Vikings trend to know
The Vikings have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 19 games (+8.70 Units / 32% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Dolphins vs. Vikings.
How to watch Dolphins vs Vikings
| Location | U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN |
| Date | Sunday, Oct. 4, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 4:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
Dolphins vs Vikings latest injuries
Check out our NFL injuries page for updates on every team.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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