The pairing of Miami Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel and new defensive coordinator Vic Fangio is the “buddy cop” series I want to watch this upcoming NFL season.
McDaniel, the quirky and innovative offensive wunderkind. Fangio, the grizzled defensive genius with a resume loaded with results. All we need are some pastels, sockless loafers, and a scorching synth-heavy soundtrack and this thing writes itself.
The Dolphins have high hopes in Year 2 under McDaniel, who transformed the Fins into a playoff team and one of the most feared scoring attacks in the league in 2022. The 2023 NFL odds have Miami on pace for at least 10 wins — according to the season win total and look-ahead lines — with their Super Bowl odds sitting at +2,500 across the board.
I air drum to “In The Air Tonight” and scan the script for what should be an entertaining season in South Beach with my 2023 Miami Dolphins NFL betting preview to bring you my favorite NFL futures for the Fins.
Miami Dolphins futures odds
| Future bet |  |
 |
 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win Super Bowl | +2,500 | +2,500 | +2,500 |
| Win conference | +1,200 | +1,300 | +1,200 |
| Win division | +300 | +290 | +300 |
| Make playoffs | -110 | -105 | -115 |
| O9.5 wins | +100 | -110 | +105 |
| U9.5 wins | -120 | -110 | -125 |
Best futures bet: No playoffs (-105)
If Aaron Rodgers pushes the New York Jets over the hump, the AFC East is as top heavy as Dolly Parton on stilts. It won’t be a stretch to see three teams finish with double digits in the win column this season.
The NFL odds currently project Buffalo to take the division, with New York getting a slight nod vs. Miami in terms of juice on the Over 9.5 wins (-130 vs. -110). Both teams are favored in 10 games with one pick’em on tap. Making the playoff cut could be harder if it comes down to tiebreakers.
On top of having to edge the Jets (or Bills), Miami will also be knotted up with at least Baltimore and the L.A. Chargers for one of those Wild Card tickets. The Dolphins actually visit both of those teams (L.A. in Week 1 and Baltimore in Week 17) while New York gets to host the Bolts for MNF in Week 9.
The Dolphins are +215 favorites to finish third in the AFC East which would likely leave them just outside the postseason picture, especially if they fall to the Ravens in Week 17 (+2.5).
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Miami Dolphins betting overview
What will win bets: Defense
The Vic Fangio hire is the best coaching move of the 2023 offseason.
With more than three decades of coaching in the pros, Fangio is the perfect complement to the young McDaniel. Miami cut ties from the systems run under former head coach Brian Flores and gets an overhaul in defensive philosophy.
Fangio is the opposite of what the Dolphins have done in recent years, swapping an ultra-aggressive attack for a more conservative approach that keeps everything in front and plays more of a chess game with opposing passers rather than “Rock 'Em Sock 'Em Robots”.
Last season, Miami was susceptible to home runs and succumbed to 37 passing plays of 25 yards or more (third most) while allowing the 10th deepest yards per target in the league. The Fins sat 29th in yards per point allowed, 26th in EPA allowed per dropback, and tied for the third most passing touchdowns against.
If the offense continues to evolve in McDaniel’s schemes, Fangio’s stop unit will tie a nice bow on those Sunday winners, slowing down the rate in which Miami bled points compared to 2022 when it finished 6-8 ATS in the final 14 games.
What will lose bets: Offensive line
The darkest cloud hovering over South Beach is the durability and well being of QB Tua Tagovailoa, who suffered multiple concussions in 2022.
His fragility is so much of a concern, Tua took judo training this offseason to learn how to fall safely. Not the biggest vote of confidence in his pass protection. The Miami offensive line added a bit of depth but didn’t really do enough to allow Dolphins' bettors to breathe easy every time Tagovailoa drops back.
The O-line ranks out as bad as 28th in some preseason polls while others have them as high as 20th. The 2022 season did produce solid results in terms of pressure rate and sacks allowed, but the 2023 slate features 11 games against defenses rated inside the Top 10 heading into Week 1.
Left tackle Terron Armstead is the foundation and we saw how sideways things went when he missed time in 2022. He’s already limited in training camp after offseason knee surgery and has never made it through a full season. Center Connor Williams reluctantly showed up at camp after holding out for a new deal most of the summer and he’ll be just as concerned about guarding his future as he is Tua.
Any backsliding from this offensive line could result in a downtick in scoring production and disastrous outcomes if Tagovailoa takes a hard hit.
Miami Dolphins 2023 schedule
| Week | Opponent | Spread |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | @  Los Angeles Chargers |
+2.5 |
| 2 | @  New England Patriots |
-2.5 |
| 3 | vs  Denver Broncos |
-3.5 |
| 4 | @  Buffalo Bills |
+3.5 |
| 5 | vs  New York Giants |
-4.5 |
| 6 | vs  Carolina Panthers |
-7 |
| 7 | @  Philadelphia Eagles |
+4 |
| 8 | vs New England Patriots |
-4 |
| 9 | @  Kansas City Chiefs |
+4 |
| 10 | BYE | |
| 11 | vs  Las Vegas Raiders |
-5.5 |
| 12 | @  New York Jets |
+2.5 |
| 13 | @  Washington Commanders |
-3.5 |
| 14 | vs  Tennessee Titans |
-7 |
| 15 | vs New York Jets |
-1.5 |
| 16 | vs  Dallas Cowboys |
-1.5 |
| 17 | @  Baltimore Ravens |
+1 |
| 18 | vs Buffalo Bills |
-1.5 |
Spreads courtesy of DraftKings sportsbook.
Miami has a win total of 9.5 victories and look-ahead lines concur with the Dolphins laying the points in 10 games (with another set as a pick’em).
Given a strength of schedule rated No. 5 in the land, my NFL power ratings place the Fins 13th overall (58.82/100) — just behind the Jets at 12th. However, we’ll have to wait until November to get our first head-to-head between those AFC East rivals.
The first nine weeks of the schedule keep Miami on the move, opening with three of four games on the road and playing five of its first nine contests away from home, capped off by a trip to Germany to face the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 9 (+4.5).
Week 1 sends the Dolphins to La-La Land to face the Chargers in what will be a vital game in terms of the AFC playoff pecking order. Bookies have Miami set as a 2.5-point road underdog while my NFL ratings produce a spread closer to Los Angeles -3.5.
The post-bye slate (Week 11 onward) does feature two games with Gang Green, but Miami will play five of the final eight outings inside Hard Rock Stadium — including a closing five-game span in which it only travels to Baltimore in Week 17. The Fins were 6-2 straight up and 5-3 against the spread at home in Year 1 under McDaniel (see more below).
Dolphins’ totals are a hot topic among NFL bettors this summer, with the Fins facing an average Over/Under of 45.8 points. The talented offense is expected to put up big numbers in McDaniel’s system, but Fangio’s defense will plug the dam when it comes to giving up quick scores. Miami finished 8-9 O/U in the regular season and some sharper guys are keeping an eye on the Under.
Miami Dolphins schedule spot bet
Week 6: VS Panthers
All in all, the Dolphins’ 2023 campaign doesn’t feature any tricky situational spots. They do have plenty of travel in the first two months and there are some letdown opportunities against weaker foes (Week 5 vs. Giants, Week 13 at Commanders).
Not all spot bets are a disadvantage, and Miami catches the Carolina Panthers in a jam in Week 6.
The Panthers trek to Hard Rock for their second straight road game and third away tilt in four weeks on October 15. In fact, this trip to Miami will be their fourth roadie in the opening six weeks with the Panthers projected to start rookie QB Bryce Young. Carolina has a bye waiting in the wings in Week 7.
Not only could the Panthers be feeling the grind of that road-heavy slate, but they could also be looking ahead to a week off after a challenging start to the season.
Books have the Dolphins installed as touchdown chalk on the look-ahead spread while my ratings produce Miami -8 — which doesn’t account for the Fins’ situational edge. This line could close near to Dolphins -10 if things go according to plan.
Star power: Tua Tagovailoa props
| Prop | |
|
|
|---|---|---|---|
| MVP | +2,200 | +1,600 | +2,200 |
| OPOY | +5,000 | +7,000 | +4,500 |
| Passing leader | +2,200 | +1,400 | +1,500 |
| Passing TD leader | +1,600 | +1,400 | +2,000 |
| O25.5 pass TD | -105* | -116 | -115 |
| U25.5 pass TD | -115* | -110 | -115 |
| Pass yards total | 3,850.5 | 3,800.5 | 3,825.5 |
*Pass TD Over/Under was 26.5 at DraftKings
Best prop: Over 3,800.5 passing yards
Taking the Over for any Tagovailoa prop is risky, considering he’s one hard sneeze away from concussion protocol. Personally, I want to see Tua thrive and love watching the WR combo of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle do their thing.
Season-long player modeling is on the fence when it comes to Tua’s touchdown count (25.5 O/U) but every projection is forecasting at least 3,900 passing yards from the Alabama product.
Tagovailoa stacks yards in bulk, finishing tops in completed air yards in 2022. He posted 3,548 yards in 13 games, which shakes out to more than 4,600 yards in a full 17-game season. My projection comes out just north of 4,000 passing yards, considering the Dolphins face plenty of top-tier defenses in 2023.
Miami Dolphins betting insights
Covers Betting Analyst
I feel like one of the few who are bearish on the Dolphins this year. They are one hit away from Mike White/Skylar Thompson and the league has adapted more to Mike McDaniel’s offensive scheming to get Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill open in space.
The defense (hello Vic Fangio and Jalen Ramsey) is better than last year, but can those upgrades make up for a gauntlet of a schedule where they will face elite QBs, head to Germany, and close out the season vs. Dallas, at Baltimore, and vs. Buffalo? A lot has to go right for this offense — which has zero running game — to hit double-digit wins.
Covers Senior Betting Analyst
If you had to take a drink every time you heard “if Tua can stay healthy” you’d likely end up with severe alcohol poisoning (depending on your level of tolerance, of course).
A successful season won’t 100% come down to Tua’s health, but if he stays on the field, Miami has one of the highest ceilings in the league: Tua took a massive leap under Mike McDaniel and proved he has what it takes to be a Top 10 quarterback.
That potential, combined with a massive coaching acquisition, as Vic Fangio was brought in to run a talented young defense, makes Miami an attractive option in futures betting markets.
Miami Dolphins trend to know
It’s tough to attach any worthwhile trends to the Dolphins, considering this is just Year 2 for Mike McDaniel and the defense is getting a facelift of Castor Troy proportions under new DC Vic Fangio.
However, Miami did continue a late-season ATS trend in 2022 that pumped out profits under former head coach Brian Flores.
From 2019 to 2021, the Dolphins were a remarkable 10-2 SU and ATS in home games from Week 10 onward. Last season, Miami made good once again, going 3-1 SU and ATS at home in the final nine weeks.
It’s a notable uptick in output considering Miami is a collective 7-10 SU and 8-9 ATS as a host in the first nine weeks of action since 2019.
Not only do the Dolphins cover the spread in those late-season home games (13-3 SU and ATS since 2019), but they’ve produced a 9-7 Over/Under count in those outings vs. a 5-12 O/U record in home games between Week 1 and Week 9 in those four seasons.
The schedule makers have Miami penciled in for five home stands following a Week 10 bye, including a stretch of three straight inside Hard Rock Stadium from Week 14 to Week 16.
Dolphins last five home games
- Week 11 vs. Raiders (-5.5)
- Week 14 vs. Titans (-7.5)
- Week 15 vs. Jets (-2.5)
- Week 16 vs. Cowboys (-2.5)
- Week 18 vs. Bills (PK)
