Welcome to the first NFL Sunday of the 2021 season.
NFL Week 1 odds have been on the board since the spring, slowly taking betting action and adjusting to all the happenings of a busy offseason, crazy camp, and packed preseason.
Now, in the final hours before kickoff, the bulk of the NFL betting action is showing up at sportsbooks and we’re tracking all the line moves, sharp bets, and public plays.
That includes some wild line movement for one of the biggest games on the Week 1 board: Cleveland at Kansas City. The Chiefs opened as big as 6.5-point home favorites but that spread looks very different as we count down to that 4:25 p.m. ET gametime.
Here are all of the NFL Week 1 odds and line moves to know:
NFL Week 1 Odds
These are the NFL odds for Week 1, headlined by a rematch between the Browns and Chiefs in Arrowhead Stadium this Sunday.
|Cowboys at Buccaneers||Thurs, 8:20 p.m. ET||Buccaneers -8.5||52.5|
|Steelers at Bills||Sun, 1 p.m. ET||Bills -6.5||48|
|Jets at Panthers||Sun, 1 p.m. ET||Panthers -3.5||45|
|Jaguars at Texans||Sun, 1 p.m. ET||Texans +3.5||46|
|Cardinals at Titans||Sun, 1 p.m. ET||Titans -2.5||53.5|
|Chargers at Washington||Sun, 1 p.m. ET||Washington -2||45|
|Eagles at Falcons||Sun, 1 p.m. ET||Falcons -3||49|
|Seahawks at Colts||Sun, 1 p.m. ET||Colts +2.5||48|
|Vikings at Bengals||Sun, 1 p.m. ET||Bengals +3||47|
|49ers at Lions||Sun, 1 p.m. ET||Lions +9||45.5|
|Browns at Chiefs||Sun, 4:25 p.m. ET||Chiefs -5||54.5|
|Dolphins at Patriots||Sun, 4:25 p.m. ET||Patriots -3.5||43.5|
|Broncos at Giants||Sun, 4:25 p.m. ET||Giants +3||41.5|
|Packers vs Saints||Sun, 4:25 p.m. ET||Saints +3.5||49.5|
|Bears at Rams||Sun, 8:20 p.m. ET||Rams -8||46.5|
|Ravens at Raiders||Mon, 8:15 p.m. ET||Raiders +4||50|
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook as of September 12, 2021
Buccaneers -6.5, Over/Under 52
Why the line moved
UPDATE 7:40 P.M. THURSDAY, SEPT 9: Just an hour away from kickoff, and action on the Bucs has finally slowed. After the spread got as large as -9.5 for Tampa Bay during the 24 hours leading up to the game, continued buyback on the Cowboys now sees the spread at -8.5 at DraftKings.
As of 5:30 p.m. ET, 68 percent of the money and 70 percent of bets were on the Bucs, while 60 percent of the money and 58 percent of bets were on the Over 53.0.
Previous Cowboys at Buccaneers action
UPDATE 3:00 P.M. THURSDAY, SEPT 9: A few hours out from kickoff and action on the Bucs continues to force the hand of bookmakers, quickly moving through the dead numbers of Tampa Bay -8 and -8.5. Some shops are dealing Tampa Bay as high as -9.5 (-110).
According to DraftKings, which went to Buccaneers -9.5 before getting buyback on Dallas and moving to -9, 79 percent of the Thursday Night Football handle is on the defending Super Bowl champs and 76 percent of ticket count is leaning that way as well.
This massive line move opens up a huge middle window for anyone who grabbed the opening spread of Tampa Bay -6.5 back in the spring. A bet on Dallas +9.5 would set that bettor up to win both wagers should the Bucs win by seven, eight or nine points.
UPDATE 6:00 P.M. WEDNESDAY, SEPT 8: Confirmation of Dak Prescott's availability after a shoulder strain in the preseason has done little to discourage the public's love of the Buccaneers ahead of this matchup.
UPDATE 8:30 A.M. SUNDAY, SEPT 5: With Cowboys QB Dak Prescott limited in the preseason due to a shoulder strain, this line ticked up from Bucs -6.5 to as high as -8 at some sportsbooks before buyback on Dallas settled this spread at -7.5.
According to our Covers Consensus, 56 percent of bets are laying the points with Tampa Bay and operators are seeing a similar split in bet count. However, when it comes to handle, sportsbooks like FanDuel are holding 69 percent of the early money on the defending champion Buccaneers.
UPDATE 9 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY, MAY 12: A few hours after this line went up, it remained at Bucs -6.5, but there's certainly interest, even with nearly four months until kickoff.
"We took some small bets on Cowboys +6.5, but nothing that would make us move the number," said Murray, executive director of The SuperBook. "This game should be one of the biggest-handle games of the NFL season. A lot of moneyline parlays and teasers starting with the defending champs."
Bills -6, Over/Under 49.5
Why the line moved
UPDATE 12:15 P.M. SUNDAY, SEPT 12: Some books are dropping to Buffalo -6 (-115) with underdog action showing up on the Steelers. BetAmerica/TwinSpires books are dealing the Bills -6 as are some online shops.
There are still plenty of books hanging Pittsburgh +6.5, so depending on which side you like, you’ll want to shop for the best odds for your opinion. Our Covers Consensus shows 55 percent of picks on Buffalo less than a hour out from kickoff.
Previous Steelers at Bills action
UPDATE 7:00 A.M. SUNDAY, SEPT 12: This spread has hung strong at Bills -6.5, with slight adjustments to the juice over the past week. Our Covers Consensus reflects that with just 56 percent of picks on Buffalo.
DraftKings sportsbooks are reporting a stronger lean to the Bills, with 69 percent of handle (money bet on the spread) and 66 percent of ticket count (bets on the spread) siding with Buffalo as of Sunday morning.
UPDATE 8:45 A.M. SUNDAY, SEPT 5: With sportsbooks heavy on Buffalo money after a summer of Bills action, this spread jumped through -6 and climbed as high as -7 at some markets before Steelers money showed at the touchdown. That has this spread at Buffalo -6.5, with books like DraftKings holding a reported 79 percent of money on the Bills.
UPDATE 9 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY, MAY 12: Behind rising star Josh Allen, Buffalo is coming off a strong season in which it reached the AFC Championship Game, losing to the Kansas City Chiefs. So it's no surprise to see the Bills just shy of a touchdown favorite at home, against a Pittsburgh team prepared to have Ben Roethlisberger at the helm for at least one more year.
"No significant action to report yet," Murray said, noting the spread and total are unchanged. "The Steelers' defense was a mess at the end of last season, and Josh Allen had the Bills' offense humming. It could be a bad matchup for a Steelers team that we've dropped to No. 3 in the AFC North."
Panthers -4.5, Over/Under 43
Why the line moved
UPDATE 7:08 A.M. SUNDAY, SEPT 12: This spread was as high as Carolina -5.5 earlier in the week but has dwindled as low as -3.5 with some Jets +4 (-115) still on the board at some online sportsbooks as of Sunday morning.
This could be some classic reverse line movement, indicating sharper play or big bets on New York, as sportsbooks are reporting heavy bet counts and handle on the Panthers. According to DraftKings, 68 percent of the handle is on the home team while 69 percent of bets taken are also on the Panthers.
Previous Jets at Panthers action
UPDATE 3:10 P.M. THURSDAY, SEPT 9: Carolina climbed as high as -5.5 for this Week 1 non-conference clash but the Panthers have been pushed down to as low as -4 as of Thursday afternoon.
Our Covers Consensus numbers show 64 percent of tickets on the home side and FanDuel is reporting 71 percent of bets and 83 percent of money on Carolina, showing reverse line movement with the spread moving away from the popular pick. That indicates that sharp play or larger wagers are beginning to show up on Gang Green.
UPDATE 8:50 A.M. SUNDAY, SEPT 5: This spread stayed steady at the opener for most of the summer, however, books started shifting the line in mid-August and made a jump from Carolina -4 to -4.5 and eventually -5 before September.
Our Covers Consensus shows 64 percent of bets on the host Panthers and some books, like FanDuel, have seen a bigger split in ticket count. They’re reporting 71 percent of spread bets on Carolina, along with 83 percent of the money wagered on the Panthers ATS.
The total has also climbed, moving from an opener of 43 points to 44.5 with 67 percent of money bet on the total siding with the Over.
UPDATE 9 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY, MAY 12: Don't say the NFL schedule makers aren't a crafty bunch. In early April, Carolina acquired quarterback Sam Darnold in a trade with New York. So right out of the gate, Darnold will face his former team.
Meanwhile, the Jets took BYU QB Zach Wilson with the second overall pick in the NFL Draft, and the rookie could well be the Week 1 starter. As such, The SuperBook opened this game at Panthers -4.5, with a total 43, and neither number moved on the first day.
Texans +3, Over/Under 45.5
Why the line moved
UPDATE 7:15 A.M. SUNDAY, SEPT 12: You’ll want to shop around for the best spread for you bet on this Week 1 game, with Jaguars -3 and Texans +3.5 still available across the market – both of those advantageous lines are carrying extra juice.
FanDuel sportsbooks are reporting heavy betting action on Jacksonville, with 94 percent of the handle and 81 percent of bets on the new-look Jags. Other operators are trending toward the Jaguars as well but not as high as those percentages. Our unbiased Covers Consensus is showing 56 percent of picks on Jacksonville.
Previous Jaguars at Texans action
UPDATE 9:05 A.M. SUNDAY, SEPT 5: Depending on which side you like, there’s opportunity to shop around and get the better number for your opinion — for an extra fee. The opener of a field goal dipped to Jaguars -2.5 (-115), which is still available at some shops. If you’re on the Texans, Houston +3 (-120 to -115) is on the board at the majority of operators. The bet count is 50/50, according to our Covers Consensus, but sportsbook operators are reporting contrasting trends.
Spots like FanDuel and DraftKings have taken heavy action on the Jaguars, with Jacksonville sitting at 81 percent of bets and 94 percent of the handle. But despite that one-sided opinion, the line slimmed from Jags -3 to -2.5 this past weekend at select sportsbooks, with reverse line movement hinting at the sharp action or perhaps line manipulation from bigger bettors. This game may not have the marquee billing of some other season openers, but this is a Week 1 spread to keep an eye on as we get closer to kickoff.
UPDATE 9 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY, MAY 12: Houston is unstable to put it mildly, most notably due to QB Deshaun Watson's unresolved off-field issues. So even though Jacksonville is fully expected to start No. 1 overall draft pick Trevor Lawrence, The SuperBook made the Jaguars 3-point road favorites, with a total of 45.5. There was no early movement on either number.
Titans -2.5, Over/Under 51
Why the line moved
UPDATE 7:30 A.M. SUNDAY, SEPT 12: Late money on the Cardinals has pushed this spread through the key number of a field goal to Titans -2.5 (-120) at some books. However, there are still some Arizona +3 (-115) lines out there. DraftKings sportsbooks are reporting 76 percent of the money and 74 percent of bets riding on Tennessee at home.
This total is also among the tallest on the Week 1 board, currently sitting at 54 points, which is up from 52.5 earlier in the week. DraftKings is drawing 68 percent of the O/U handle on the Over while 58 percent of bets on the total are also leaning Over.
Previous Cardinals at Titans action
UPDATE 9:30 A.M. SUNDAY, SEPT 5: The opening spread of Titans -2.5 hung strong for most of the summer, with bookies making adjustments to the vig. However, come August the action on Tennessee was too much and the Titans tipped to field goal favorites. That said, some shops saw buyback on Arizona +3 and have gone back to the original number.
DraftKings is one of those markets dealing Tennessee -2.5 (-120) and is reporting 86 percent of the handle on the home side (total money wagered on the spread) and 62 percent of tickets riding on the Titans. Depending on your opinion and available operators, you can shop for Cardinals +3 (-115) or snoop around for Tennessee -2.5 (-120) a week out from kickoff.
UPDATE 1 P.M. ET SUNDAY, JUNE 6: The Julio Jones trade has had some impact on this Week 1 spread, with the Titans as large as field-goal favorites at home to Arizona. Other books have boosted the juice on Tennessee -2.5, with that price climbing from -110 to -120. Jones is an impact receiver - when healthy - and gives the Titans offense an exciting duo alongside fellow wideout A.J. Brown and complementing the rushing attack of Derrick Henry.
WFT +1.5, Over/Under 44.5
Why the line moved
UPDATE 7:35 A.M. SUNDAY, SEPT 12: This has been one of the most interesting lines to monitor this offseason. After opening at a pick’em and moving to -1 Los Angeles, injury news this week sparked a move to WFT -1 and that has grown as large as -2.5 at some online books.
Previous Chargers at Washington action
UPDATE 3:20 P.M. THURSDAY, SEPT 9: With news that Los Angeles RB Austin Ekeler missed practice with a hamstring injury on Wednesday, this line started shifting across the industry, jumping the fence to WFT -1.
As of Thursday morning, a few Washington +1 (-115) spreads were still available. However, those dried up fast and spreads climbed as high as -1.5 on the host side.
DraftKings is drawing 62 percent of bets on the Chargers but just 56 percent of the handle. Our Covers Consensus data shows 57 percent of picks on Washington.
UPDATE 9:50 A.M. SUNDAY, SEPT 5: According to our Covers Consensus, early bettors are siding with the home team, with Washington drawing 60 percent of the bet count. Sportsbook operators are reporting contrasting betting trends in terms of handle, with FanDuel taking in 63 percent of spread action on the WFT while DraftKings is seeing 78 percent of the money on the Chargers.
That diverse reporting somewhat makes sense considering just how tight this Week 1 spread is. Some books opened this line at a pick’em with others at Washington +1. Over the course of the summer, this spread grew to Los Angeles -1.5 but is sitting at Bolts -1 in most markets. Despite the very short spread, both books have seen a little more moneyline cash (odds to win outright) on Washington (53% of moneyline handle).
UPDATE 9 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY, MAY 12: Quarterback Justin Herbert, who won Offensive Rookie of the Year honors last season, leads Los Angeles on the road for a Week 1 clash with the Washington Football Team, which will hopefully have a new nickname/mascot by the time September rolls around.
The SuperBook pegged the Chargers 1.5-point favorites, with a total of 44.5, and neither number moved Wednesday.
Falcons -3.5, Over/Under 47
Why the line moved
UPDATE 7:45 A.M. SUNDAY, SEPT 12: This spread has ping-ponged between Falcons -3 and -3.5 the past week and depending on which side you like you can find both spreads out there, so shop around.
DraftKings sportsbooks are reporting a relatively even ticket count on this game (54 percent of bets on Philadelphia), however, the handle is more decisive with 60 percent of action on the underdog Eagles.
Our Covers Consensus – not swayed by geographic factors and home fanbases in states with legal betting – is showing the opposite in terms of bet count, with 56 percent of picks on Atlanta.
Previous Eagles at Falcons action
UPDATE 3:30 P.M. THURSDAY, SEPT 9: The Falcons have jumped a half point over the key number of a field goal, from -3 to -3.5 hosting Philadelphia in Week 1. This spread briefly dip off the opening of ATL -3.5 at select sportsbooks before buyback on the fave pushed it back to the original post.
There are some Atlanta -3 (-115) lines still on the board, as of Thursday afternoon. FanDuel is reporting 59 percent of the money on the Falcons along with 55 percent of the ticket count.
UPDATE 10:05 A.M. SUNDAY, SEPT 5: There have been some minor blips to this point spread over the summer, jumping to Atlanta -4 ever so briefly before buyback on Philadelphia recoiled to Falcons -3.5. Our unbiased Covers Consensus shows a slight lean to the home side, with 56 percent of picks on Atlanta.
However, those operators entrenched in Pennsylvania and New Jersey can see a sizable sway in bets and money on the Eagles, which is the case for DraftKings. They’re reporting 66 percent of the business’s overall handle on Philadelphia but just 32 percent of total bets on the Eagles. Philly +3.5 is priced at around -115 for those operators doing business in and around the City of Brotherly Love.
UPDATE 1 P.M. ET SUNDAY, JUNE 6: With Carson Wentz shipped out to Indianapolis, second-year QB Jalen Hurts is atop Philadelphia's depth chart. Atlanta, with seasoned vet Matt Ryan under center, got the standard 3-point home-field advantage plus the hook at The SuperBook. That line held steady on Day 1, as did the total of 47. Julio Jones' departure to Tennessee isn't having any impact on this line either, as books were expecting the Falcons to part ways with their star WR before Week 1.
Colts -3, Over/Under 52
Why the line moved
UPDATE 7:50 A.M. SUNDAY, SEPT 12: With Colts QB Carson Wentz expected to play just six weeks after undergoing foot surgery, this line can be found anywhere from Seattle -2.5 (-115) to Indianapolis +3 (-110) as of Sunday morning.
According to FanDuel sportsbooks, 61 percent of bets are on Seattle, but 59 percent of the money is on Indy - setting up a possible "Joes vs. Pros" game between sharps and squares. This spread opened Colts -3 back in May and was sitting at -2.5 before the Wentz injury this summer, taking a lot of money on Seattle before books pulled the game off the board and reopened the Seahawks as road favorites.
Previous Seahawks at Colts action
UPDATE 10:15 A.M. SUNDAY, SEPT 5: In one of the wildest lines of Week 1, injuries to the Colts over the course of camp have moved Indianapolis from a 2.5-point home favorite to as big as a 3.5-point underdog the past month. But with Carson Wentz on the mend and an option for the opener, the line is down to Colts +2.5.
This line will of course see major movement if Wentz is ruled out for Sunday’s showdown with Seattle, but as it stands 61 percent of bets are on the Seahawks at FanDuel sportsbooks and rival DraftKings is drawing even more picks on the road favorite, with 78 percent of tickets on Seattle. Those percentages would include those bettors who ran to get down on the Seahawks as underdogs when the Wentz news broke in early August.
The total has also undergone a makeover in the wake of Indy’s injuries, dropping from 52 points to 48.5 a week out from gametime. The bulk of bets and handle on the total are on the Under at FanDuel sportsbooks (60% bets, 70% handle).
UPDATE 12 P.M. ET FRIDAY, AUGUST 6: Following the news that quarterback Carson Wentz and star offensive lineman Quenton Nelson will be sidelined for at least five weeks each (and possibly longer), this has left Indianapolis scrambling for a starting quarterback. Right now it appears backup Jacob Eason will be the Week 1 starter, and the line has swung from the opening of the Colts as favorites to the visiting Seahawks now giving more than a field goal on the road, while the total dropped by nearly a touchdown to 46.5.
UPDATE 9 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY, MAY 12: Carson Wentz hopes to revive his career with an Indianapolis outfit that got a wild-card bid last season behind the now-retired Philip Rivers. But the Colts face a tough chore against Russell Wilson and Seattle. The SuperBook opened at Colts -3/total 52, and those lines were unchanged through Day 1 of betting.
Bengals +3, Over/Under 48
Why the line moved
UPDATE 8:00 A.M. SUNDAY, SEPT 12: Minnesota -3 seems to be the industry standard on this game, coming down a half point from -3.5 over the past week.
DraftKings sportsbooks have taken heavy action on the road chalk, with 79 percent of the handle and 67 percent of the bet count on the Vikes. Other sportsbooks aren’t seeing as dramatic a lean to Minnesota and our Covers Consensus actually shows just 54 percent of picks on the Vikings.
Previous Vikings at Bengals action
UPDATE 3:35 P.M. THURSDAY, SEPT 9: The Vikings were sitting at -3.5 at most books for the majority of the summer but are starting to trickle down, dropping to -3 (-110) as of Thursday afternoon.
Our unbiased Covers Consensus shows a dead-even split in picks between Minnesota and Cincinnati. However, DraftKings sportsbooks is reporting 55 percent lean to the Vikes in terms of ticket count and a heavy 81 percent of the handle riding on the visitors.
This reverse line movement could be an indication that professionals and respected bettors are taking Cincinnati and the points or that bigger wagers are starting to show up on the Bengals.
UPDATE 10:45 A.M. SUNDAY, SEPT 5: A week out from this non-conference kickoff game, NFL bettors can shop around for a spread that fits their opinion. However, if you’re banking on the Vikings, you may want to bet it now. Minnesota -3 is out there but the vig is hiked as high as -120 and some markets have already jumped to Vikes -3.5 — offering Bengals backers the half-point hook on the field goal at -115.
According to our unique Covers Consensus, only 45 percent of tickets are sitting on the road favorite Vikings but sportsbooks are seeing a bigger ticket count on Minnesota (as high as 64% at DraftKings). Handle split varies book to book, with FanDuel drawing just 53 percent of the money on Minny while DK reports a whopping 74 percent of handle on the visiting Vikings.
UPDATE 9 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY, MAY 12: Cincinnati hopes to have a fully recovered Joe Burrow under center on Sept. 12, after the QB saw his rookie campaign short-circuited by a Week 11 knee injury. The SuperBook opted to make Minnesota 3-point road chalk, with a total of 48, and there was no early movement on the spread or the total.
Lions +7, Over/Under 45.5
Why the line moved
UPDATE 12:40 P.M. SUNDAY, SEPT 12: Action continues to pour in on the 49ers, quickly moving through the dead numbers of -8 and -8.5 as well as push through -9. Online sportsbook Pinnacle is as high as San Francisco -10 (+110)/Detroit +10 (-121).
Since 2000, Week 1 double-digit underdogs are 15-6 ATS (71%), including 4-0 ATS since 2015. Covers Consensus shows 67 percent of picks on the road chalk while DraftKings sportsbook – which is dealing Niners -9 – is reporting 74 percent of the handle on San Francisco.
Previous 49ers at Lions action
UPDATE 8:05 A.M. SUNDAY, SEPT 12: The 49ers have grown from -7.5 to as big as -9 for this trip to Motown. This line could continue to grow as the Niners are popular picks for both parlay and teaser bettors.
DraftKings sportsbooks are reporting an 81 percent lean toward San Francisco in terms of bet count and the big money hasn’t shied away from all those points either, with 83 percent of the handle on the Niners.
UPDATE 2:30 P.M. SATURDAY, SEPT 11: This line has continued to grow over the last month and jumped even further in the days leading up to kickoff, with it now sitting at 49ers -9.5. Our Covers Consensus sees 70 percent of spread bets on San Francisco, up from 68 percent midweek.
UPDATE 11 A.M. SUNDAY, SEPT 5: San Francisco is the popular teaser pick for Week 1, with plenty of bettors walking the Niners down from a touchdown to -1 in combination with other teaser bets on the openers.
This line has grown to 49ers -7.5 over the past month and could keep climbing after an impressive preseason that put many of those QB questions in the Bay Area to bed (dual QBs anyone?). Our Covers Consensus sees 68 percent of spread bets on San Francisco while operators like DraftKings have an even more decisive split, reporting about 80 percent of tickets and handle on the Niners in Week 1.
UPDATE 9 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY, MAY 12: San Francisco might have a quarterback competition on its hands, between veteran Jimmy Garoppolo and No. 3 overall draft pick Trey Lance. So it'll be interesting to see who's under center come Sept. 12.
Regardless, The SuperBook likes the 49ers enough to make them touchdown favorites against the Lions, with a total of 45.5. Neither number moved on opening day.
Chiefs -6.5, Over/Under 53
Why the line moved
UPDATE 6:50 A.M. SUNDAY, SEPT 12: This spread has slowly dropped all week, with some online sportsbooks even going to Kansas City -4.5 as of Sunday morning. The bulk of the market is dealing -5 or -5.5, which is down from the opening line of Chiefs -6.5 back in the spring.
This movement comes despite sportsbooks reporting heavy ticket counts and handle in favor of the host team, with FanDuel drawing 68 percent of bets and 75 percent of the money on Kansas City. Our Covers Consensus shows 62 percent of picks on the Chiefs.
Previous Browns at Chiefs action
UPDATE 3:40 P.M. THURSDAY, SEPT 9: One of the most anticipated games of Week 1 has seen the spread rise to Chiefs -6.5 and drop to -5.5, with recent action on the Browns.
According to FanDuel, 68 percent of bets are on Kansas City and 75 percent of the spread handle is also on the home side. However, this line has slipped below the key number of six to Browns +5.5 (-105). Don't be surprised to see this come back up again once the public bettors show up on the weekend and side with Mahomes & Co.
UPDATE 11:30 A.M. SUNDAY, SEPT 5: One the marquee games for Week 1 and a rematch of last year’s AFC Divisional Round matchup has seen its spread slim from the opener of Kansas City -6.5 to -6 with plenty of preseason hype building behind the Browns. That half-point move came earlier in the spring with initial underdog action on the opening line and some spots are back to KC -6.5 (-106)/Cleveland +6.5 (-113) as of the end of August.
Bettors aren’t scared off by a possible Super Bowl hangover from the Chiefs, who according to our Covers Consensus are drawing 65 percent of the ticket count heading into Week 1. That’s the story at many top sportsbooks, such as DraftKings reporting splits of 78 percent on tickets and 73 percent on spread handle resting on the home favorite.
Patriots -2.5, Over/Under 44.5
Why the line moved
UPDATE 8:15 A.M. SUNDAY, SEPT 12: Late-week action on the Patriots has bumped this spread from New England -3 to -3.5 at most sportsbooks. However, there are some heavily-juiced Pats -3 still out there if you can shop around.
Our Covers Consensus is seeing 56 percent of picks on the home side and sportsbooks like FanDuel are reporting similar betting patterns. DraftKings sportsbooks is heavier on the Patriots in terms of handle, with 69 percent of the money on Bill Belichick’s team.
Previous Dolphins at Patriots action
UPDATE 11:40 A.M. SUNDAY, SEPT 5: New England’s move to start rookie QB Mac Jones — and drop veteran Cam Newton — trimmed a half point from this spread, which had climbed from Patriots -2 to -3 throughout the summer. Most shops are dealing Pats -2.5 (-115) at home to the Dolphins in Week 1.
This AFC East rivalry has drawn relatively split action at sportsbooks, with FanDuel reporting a slight lean toward Miami in terms of bets and handle. Our insightful Covers Consensus is actually trending in the opposite direction, with 58 percent of tickets written on New England a week out from kickoff.
The total for this game has also moved since opening in the spring, coming down from 45.5 to 44 points. Sixty percent of handle is banking on the Under for this divisional dance at FanDuel books.
UPDATE 9 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY, MAY 12: Miami QB Tua Tagovailoa heads into his second year in the NFL, while Cam Newton enters his second season in New England. That's of course provided Mac Jones, the Patriots' first-round draft pick, doesn't overtake Newton between now and NFL Week 1.
The SuperBook gave the early lean to Newton and the Pats as 2.5-point home favorites, with a total of 44.5, and neither number moved through the first day of action.
Giants +1, Over/Under 42
Why the line moved
UPDATE 8:20 A.M. SUNDAY, SEPT 12: Money on the Broncos has moved this spread from Denver -2.5 to -3 with New York +3 priced as high as -120 as of Sunday morning.
The total for this game is the lowest on the Week 1 board, opening at 42 back in the spring, climbing to 43 over the summer, but sinking to 41.5. While ticket count on the Over/Under is even at DraftKings sportsbooks, the Under has taken 66 percent of the handle on the total.
Previous Broncos at Giants action
UPDATE 11:45 A.M. SUNDAY, SEPT 5: This non-conference clash has undergone some of the more notable line movement in Week 1, with Denver climbing from 1-point road chalk to as big as -3, due to injury concerns stacking up for the Giants’ skill positions. Depending on which side you like, you can find this line at 2.5 or 3, subject to your operator options.
The Broncos, who will be starting Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback in Week 1, are drawing 59 percent of bets according to our unbiased Covers Consensus. But reporting from sportsbook operators — notably those in New Jersey and surrounding New York — is contrasting depending on the book, with as much as 72 percent of bets on the G-Men. Be careful of basing any wagers on splits provided, as some stats are skewed due to those neighboring fanbases. Online or Vegas-based trends will offer a clearer view of the betting patterns.
UPDATE 9 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY, MAY 12: Denver is one of the teams purportedly in the hunt for Aaron Rodgers, but oddsmakers have to go off what they know for now. The Broncos currently have Drew Lock at No. 1 on the QB depth chart, though they acquired Teddy Bridgewater in an April trade with Carolina.
Meanwhile, New York hopes to have stud running back Saquon Barkley at full strength for the season opener. Barkley missed almost all of last season after tearing an ACL in Week 2.
Neither the spread nor the total moved on Day 1 of action at The SuperBook.
Saints -3, Over/Under 50.5
Why the line moved
UPDATE 8:30 A.M. SUNDAY, SEPT 12: This line seems to have settled at Green Bay -3.5 after a wild summer of Aaron Rodgers drama and a shift in venue to Jacksonville due to Hurricane Ida.
Some shops are dealing Packers -3.5 (-115) which could indicate a move to -4 should late money show up. And with this being a 4:25 p.m. ET kickoff, books have most of the day to take more action.
The total on this game opened at 50.5 but has come down to 49.5 points in the past few days. According to our Covers Consensus, 68 percent of O/U picks are siding with the Over.
Previous Packers at Saints action
UPDATE 6:10 P.M. WEDNESDAY, SEPT 8: The bleeding around the Saints finally stopped after Hurricane Ida forced this one to move to Jacksonville. Heavy action on the Packers, following news of the location change, led to the Packers moving all the way to 4.5-point favorites. However, this week has seen the Covers Consensus drop from 73 percent action on Green Bay to 70 percent. The late love the Saints have received has led to the spread move back to Packers -3.5 as of Wednesday evening.
UPDATE 12 P.M. SUNDAY, SEPT 5: This line finally settled in at Packers -3 in the wake of all the offseason drama surrounding Aaron Rodgers. But just when we thought it was safe to lock in a bet, Hurricane Ida forced the Saints out of the Superdome for Week 1 and rescheduled this matchup in Jacksonville.
Depending on your book’s house rules, any bets placed on the original game at New Orleans may have been voided. And there were likely plenty out there as bettors tried to get ahead of the QB situation for both sides. The Packers were 3-point favorites in the Big Easy and reopened as 4-point chalk in a neutral-site showdown with the Saints.
The adjustments haven’t stopped there. With the Saints siding with Jameis Winston as QB1 and having to move all their operations to Dallas for the first month of the schedule, bettors are fading New Orleans (73% of Covers Consensus on Cheeseheads) and moving this spread as high as Green Bay -4.5.
There has been some buyback on the Saints at that number — dropping the Packers to -4 — but that NOLA +4.5 is still out there if you shop around. Being that the -4/-4.5 is a dead number and given all the off-field distractions building for the Saints, there's a shot this spread moves (and moves fast) by Sunday if Green Bay bets keep coming.
UPDATE 12 P.M. ET FRIDAY, AUGUST 6: Now that the Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams drama seems settled (for now), this line has also shifted from the home Saints being a field-goal favorite... to the visiting Packers now giving those three points. The total hasn't really been affected with this news, actually ticking down a point from the opening mark.
UPDATE 9 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY, MAY 12: This game could be a dandy on opening Sunday – provided Aaron Rodgers is still taking snaps for Green Bay. The SuperBook seems to think the disgruntled QB will be back with the Pack, giving only a 3-point edge to New Orleans, which will move on from Drew Brees and presumably into the Jameis Winston era.
"This is the highest volume of any Week 1 game so far, and all those bets have been on the Packers," Murray said. "Obviously, those people think Rodgers will be back in Green Bay. We don't disagree, but with all the chaos surrounding that organization, we think the Saints being a field-goal favorite at home is fair. I can't wait to see Jameis in there. He's a very fun player, good for Over bettors."
The spread and total went unchanged on Day 1.
Rams -6.5, Over/Under 44.5
Why the line moved
UPDATE 8:35 A.M. SUNDAY, SEPT 12: Plenty of parlays and teasers will hinge on the final game of Sunday.
Books are seeing more Rams money show up and have moved off L.A. -7.5 to -8 as of Sunday morning. That line could continue to run, as bookmakers are more aggressive through dead numbers like eight, and could sit -8.5, -9 or even -9.5 by kickoff Sunday night.
According to DraftKings sportsbooks, 84 percent of the money is riding on the Rams while 72 percent of tickets are also on Los Angeles.
Previous Bears at Rams action
UPDATE 12:22 P.M. SUNDAY, SEPT 5: This is another popular teaser play making its way to Week 1 cards, with the Rams giving a touchdown to Chicago on Sunday Night Football (Los Angeles -1 on a 6-point teaser). And with this being the final game on the board Sunday, plenty of parlays will be pending on the SNF result.
DraftKings is reporting 83 percent of spread handle on the home team, which has moved them to L.A. -7.5. Any other operator dealing Rams -7 has the price tag upped to -120 which would indicate a move to -7.5 soon, so if you’re betting the Bears (and QB1 Andy Dalton) and want that security blanket on the key number, wait it out.
UPDATE 9 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY, MAY 12: NFL Week 1's Sunday night game should be quite interesting. For certain, Los Angeles will trot out Matthew Stafford, acquired in a trade that sent fellow QB Jared Goff to Detroit.
But will Andy Dalton start for Chicago? Or will it be first-round draft pick Justin Fields out of Ohio State?
"We had this game at Rams -6.5 and are now at -7," Murray said a couple of hours after the line went up at The SuperBook. "There will be a lot of moneyline parlays and teasers that survive the Thursday game and the early Sunday games, rolling to the Rams. And just about anyone is an upgrade over Goff, so we decided to bump our line up half a point.
"We are gonna need the Bears. Hopefully, they're playing the rookie."
Raiders +3.5, Over/Under 51
Why the line moved
UPDATE 8:40 A.M. SUNDAY, SEPT 12: The betting markets have had time to react to the rash of injuries to the rushing game in Baltimore, moving this spread from Ravens -4.5 to as low as -3.5 before a market move to -4 as of Sunday morning.
According to FanDuel sportsbooks, 78 percent of bets and 83 percent of money is riding on the Ravens. However, the Circa Millions contest in Las Vegas is reporting that Raiders +4 is the fourth-most popular pick in the pool for Week 1.
Previous Ravens at Raiders action
UPDATE 4:00 P.M. THURSDAY, SEPT 9: The Ravens appear to be the most snake-bitten NFL team this summer, first losing RB J.K. Dobbins for the season, then RB Justice Hill, and now potentially losing another running back in Gus Edwards.
ESPN is reporting that Edwards, along with Baltimore CB Marcus Peters, sustained a pair of knee injuries during Thursday practice and the early rumblings are season-ending torn ACL's.
The Ravens were 4.5-point road favorites in Las Vegas for Monday Night Football, and quickly dipped to -4 once news broke. This line could continue to tick down as bettors catch wind of the dire situation in with Baltimore's once-feared rushing game.
UPDATE 12:45 P.M. SUNDAY, SEPT 5: The Week 1 finale has seen plenty of line movement but since those adjustments bounced between the dead numbers of Baltimore -5.5 to -4 and back up to -4.5, the adjustments aren’t as notable as they didn’t push through any key numbers.
The Ravens are down RB J.K. Dobbins for the year due to a knee injury in the summer, and that sliced a half point of the spread at most shops, with the line currently sitting -4. Our Covers Consensus is giving Las Vegas a little more respect (45% of bets) compared to reporting from sportsbook operators, which are drawing more than 80 percent of handle on the visitor and as much as 92 percent of ticket count on the Ravens.
UPDATE 9 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY, MAY 12: The NFL Week 1 Monday nighter will hopefully see the first full house ever at the gleaming new Allegiant Stadium, which spent its inaugural year void of fans due to COVID restrictions. While most sportsbooks pegged visiting Baltimore a bit longer chalk, even -6.5 at some spots before dipping to -4.5, The SuperBook opened the Ravens -3.5.
"The market seems to be higher on the Ravens, but we think this is the right number for now," Murray said. "There should be a lot of support for Las Vegas in this game, and we expect a raucous crowd at Allegiant. It'll be nice to have a Raiders home game that isn't exclusively for media members – not that I'll be able to afford to go anyway! That will be one tough ticket, and the game will have a ton of two-way action at the betting window."