NFL Week 1 Odds: Julio Jones and Titans Are Week 1 Favorites

Jun 6, 2021 |

The NFL Week 1 odds are pretty quiet in the summer months. After a barrage of action and adjustments when they first hit the board, these spreads and totals settle in unless something big happens before Week 1. And something has. 

The Tennessee Titans are set to acquire star receiver Julio Jones in a trade with the Atlanta Falcons, which has the Titans climbing as high as 3-point home chalk for their season opener against the Arizona Cardinals. As for the Falcons, their NFL odds aren't moving much, as bookies were banking on Atlanta being without the stud receiver anyways.

The SuperBook's John Murray provided insights on NFL Week 1 opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting. Check back regularly as Covers updates this report with NFL sharp picks vs. public bets and line movement throughout the offseason.

These are the NFL odds for Week 1, headlined by the Buccaneers opening as 6.5-point favorites over the Cowboys and Kansas City favored by 5.5 points against Cleveland.

Matchup Time Spread Over/Under
Cowboys at Buccaneers Thurs, 8:20 p.m. ET Buccaneers -6.5 52
Steelers at Bills Sun, 1 p.m. ET Bills -6.5 50.5
Jets at Panthers Sun, 1 p.m. ET Panthers -4 43
Jaguars at Texans Sun, 1 p.m. ET Texans +2.5 45.5
Cardinals at Titans Sun, 1 p.m. ET Titans -2.5 51.5
Chargers at Washington Sun, 1 p.m. ET Washington +1 45
Eagles at Falcons Sun, 1 p.m. ET Falcons -3.5 47.5
Seahawks at Colts Sun, 1 p.m. ET Colts -2 52.5
Vikings at Bengals Sun, 1 p.m. ET Bengals +3.5 48.5
49ers at Lions Sun, 1 p.m. ET Lions +7.5 45.5
Browns at Chiefs Sun, 4:25 p.m. ET Chiefs -5.5 53
Dolphins at Patriots Sun, 4:25 p.m. ET Patriots -1.5 45
Broncos at Giants Sun, 4:25 p.m. ET Giants +1 42.5
Packers at Saints Sun, 4:25 p.m. ET Saints -2 OTB
Bears at Rams Sun, 8:20 p.m. ET Rams -7 45
Ravens at Raiders Mon, 8:15 p.m. ET Raiders +5 51.5

Odds courtesy of The SuperBook as of June 5, 2021

Opening line

Buccaneers -6.5, Over/Under 52

Why the line moved

UPDATE 9 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY, MAY 12: A few hours after this line went up, it remained at Bucs -6.5, but there's certainly interest, even with nearly four months until kickoff.

"We took some small bets on Cowboys +6.5, but nothing that would make us move the number," said Murray, executive director of The SuperBook. "This game should be one of the biggest-handle games of the NFL season. A lot of moneyline parlays and teasers starting with the defending champs."

The total is also stable at 52 on Day 1.

Opening line

Bills -6, Over/Under 49.5

Why the line moved

UPDATE 9 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY, MAY 12: Behind rising star Josh Allen, Buffalo is coming off a strong season in which it reached the AFC Championship Game, losing to the Kansas City Chiefs. So it's no surprise to see the Bills just shy of a touchdown favorite at home, against a Pittsburgh team prepared to have Ben Roethlisberger at the helm for at least one more year.

"No significant action to report yet," Murray said, noting the spread and total are unchanged. "The Steelers' defense was a mess at the end of last season, and Josh Allen had the Bills' offense humming. It could be a bad matchup for a Steelers team that we've dropped to No. 3 in the AFC North."

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Opening line

Panthers -4.5, Over/Under 43

Why the line moved

UPDATE 9 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY, MAY 12: Don't say the NFL schedule makers aren't a crafty bunch. In early April, Carolina acquired quarterback Sam Darnold in a trade with New York. So right out of the gate, Darnold will face his former team.

Meanwhile, the Jets took BYU QB Zach Wilson with the second overall pick in the NFL Draft, and the rookie could well be the Week 1 starter. As such, The SuperBook opened this game at Panthers -4.5, with a total 43, and neither number moved on the first day.

Opening line

Texans +3, Over/Under 45.5

Why the line moved

UPDATE 9 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY, MAY 12: Houston is unstable to put it mildly, most notably due to QB Deshaun Watson's unresolved off-field issues. So even though Jacksonville is fully expected to start No. 1 overall draft pick Trevor Lawrence, The SuperBook made the Jaguars 3-point road favorites, with a total of 45.5.

There was no early movement on either number.

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Opening line

Titans -2.5, Over/Under 51

Why the line moved

UPDATE 1 P.M. ET SUNDAY, JUNE 6: The Julio Jones trade has had some impact on this Week 1 spread, with the Titans as large as field-goal favorites at home to Arizona. Other books has boosted the juice on Tennessee -2.5, with that price climbing from -110 to -120. Jones is an impact receiver - when healthy - and gives the Titans offense an exciting duo alongside fellow wideout A.J. Brown and complementing the rushing attack of Derrick Henry. 

Opening line

WFT +1.5, Over/Under 44.5

Why the line moved

UPDATE 9 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY, MAY 12: Quarterback Justin Herbert, who won Offensive Rookie of the Year honors last season, leads Los Angeles on the road for a Week 1 clash with the Washington Football Team, which will hopefully have a new nickname/mascot by the time September rolls around.

The SuperBook pegged the Chargers 1.5-point favorites, with a total of 44.5, and neither number moved Wednesday. 

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Opening line

Falcons -3.5, Over/Under 47

Why the line moved

UPDATE 1 P.M. ET SUNDAY, JUNE 6: With Carson Wentz shipped out to Indianapolis, second-year QB Jalen Hurts is atop Philadelphia's depth chart. Atlanta, with seasoned vet Matt Ryan under center, got the standard 3-point home-field advantage plus the hook at The SuperBook. That line held steady on Day 1, as did the total of 47. Julio Jones' departure to Tennessee isn't having any impact on this line either, as books were expecting the Falcons to part ways with their star WR before Week 1.

Opening line

Colts -3, Over/Under 52

Why the line moved

UPDATE 9 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY, MAY 12: Carson Wentz hopes to revive his career with an Indianapolis outfit that got a wild-card bid last season behind the now-retired Philip Rivers. But the Colts face a tough chore against Russell Wilson and Seattle. The SuperBook opened at Colts -3/total 52, and those lines were unchanged through Day 1 of betting. 

Opening line

Bengals +3, Over/Under 48

Why the line moved

UPDATE 9 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY, MAY 12: Cincinnati hopes to have a fully recovered Joe Burrow under center on Sept. 12, after the QB saw his rookie campaign short-circuited by a Week 11 knee injury. The SuperBook opted to make Minnesota 3-point road chalk, with a total of 48, and there was no early movement on the spread or the total.

Opening line

Lions +7, Over/Under 45.5

Why the line moved

UPDATE 9 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY, MAY 12: San Francisco might have a quarterback competition on its hands, between veteran Jimmy Garoppolo and No. 3 overall draft pick Trey Lance. So it'll be interesting to see who's under center come Sept. 12.

Regardless, The SuperBook likes the 49ers enough to make them touchdown favorites against the Lions, with a total of 45.5. Neither number moved on opening day.

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Opening line

Chiefs -6.5, Over/Under 53

Why the line moved

UPDATE 9 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY, MAY 12: This is an absolute gem of a Week 1 showdown, pitting Patrick Mahomes against Baker Mayfield in a rematch of last season's AFC divisional playoff game. In that contest, host Kansas City got out to a 19-3 halfftime lead and held off a Cleveland comeback for a 22-17 victory.

"We had a couple bites on Browns +6.5, but we are staying put for now," Murray said, noting no movement on the line nor the total. "It looks like the Chiefs shored up their offensive line in the offseason, and they should be the best team in the NFL. But the Browns look to be improved, as well. A great game, the best of Week 1."

Opening line

Patriots -2.5, Over/Under 44.5

Why the line moved

UPDATE 9 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY, MAY 12: Miami QB Tua Tagovailoa heads into his second year in the NFL, while Cam Newton enters his second season in New England. That's of course provided Mac Jones, the Patriots' first-round draft pick, doesn't overtake Newton between now and NFL Week 1.

The SuperBook gave the early lean to Newton and the Pats as 2.5-point home favorites, with a total of 44.5, and neither number moved through the first day of action.

More NFL betting analysis

Opening line

Giants +1, Over/Under 42

Why the line moved

UPDATE 9 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY, MAY 12: Denver is one of the teams purportedly in the hunt for Aaron Rodgers, but oddsmakers have to go off what they know for now. The Broncos currently have Drew Lock at No. 1 on the QB depth chart, though they acquired Teddy Bridgewater in an April trade with Carolina.

Meanwhile, New York hopes to have stud running back Saquon Barkley at full strength for the season opener. Barkley missed almost all of last season after tearing an ACL in Week 2.

Neither the spread nor the total moved on Day 1 of action at The SuperBook.

Opening line

Saints -3, Over/Under 50.5

Why the line moved

UPDATE 9 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY, MAY 12: This game could be a dandy on opening Sunday – provided Aaron Rodgers is still taking snaps for Green Bay. The SuperBook seems to think the disgruntled QB will be back with the Pack, giving only a 3-point edge to New Orleans, which will move on from Drew Brees and presumably into the Jameis Winston era.

"This is the highest volume of any Week 1 game so far, and all those bets have been on the Packers," Murray said. "Obviously, those people think Rodgers will be back in Green Bay. We don't disagree, but with all the chaos surrounding that organization, we think the Saints being a field-goal favorite at home is fair. I can't wait to see Jameis in there. He's a very fun player, good for Over bettors."

The spread and total went unchanged on Day 1.

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Opening line

Rams -6.5, Over/Under 44.5

Why the line moved

UPDATE 9 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY, MAY 12: NFL Week 1's Sunday night game should be quite interesting. For certain, Los Angeles will trot out Matthew Stafford, acquired in a trade that sent fellow QB Jared Goff to Detroit.

But will Andy Dalton start for Chicago? Or will it be first-round draft pick Justin Fields out of Ohio State?

"We had this game at Rams -6.5 and are now at -7," Murray said a couple of hours after the line went up at The SuperBook. "There will be a lot of moneyline parlays and teasers that survive the Thursday game and the early Sunday games, rolling to the Rams. And just about anyone is an upgrade over Goff, so we decided to bump our line up half a point.

"We are gonna need the Bears. Hopefully, they're playing the rookie."

Opening line

Raiders +3.5, Over/Under 51

Why the line moved

UPDATE 9 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY, MAY 12: The NFL Week 1 Monday nighter will hopefully see the first full house ever at the gleaming new Allegiant Stadium, which spent its inaugural year void of fans due to COVID restrictions. While most sportsbooks pegged visiting Baltimore a bit longer chalk, even -6.5 at some spots before dipping to -4.5, The SuperBook opened the Ravens -3.5.

"The market seems to be higher on the Ravens, but we think this is the right number for now," Murray said. "There should be a lot of support for Las Vegas in this game, and we expect a raucous crowd at Allegiant. It'll be nice to have a Raiders home game that isn't exclusively for media members – not that I'll be able to afford to go anyway! That will be one tough ticket, and the game will have a ton of two-way action at the betting window."

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