The undefeated Minnesota Vikings head to Detroit as 3.5-point underdogs, while Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs look to bounce back from an ugly loss in Seattle when they visit Denver.
Both games offer intriguing angles, but the lines aren't necessarily telling the whole story.
My NFL against the spread picks break down all 14 Week 8 matchups, highlighting where the value might be hiding.
For more betting analysis, check out our latest NFL picks.
NFL picks against the spread for Week 8
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Matchup |  |
|---|---|
 Panthers vs  Packers |
+3.5 |
 Ravens vs  Bills |
+3.5 |
 Titans vs  Bengals |
-10.5 |
 Cardinals vs  Cowboys |
+6.5 |
 Vikings vs  Lions |
+3.5 |
 Colts vs  Jaguars |
-7.5 |
 Raiders vs  Jets |
+1.5 |
 Browns vs  Steelers |
+3.5 |
 Falcons vs  Buccaneers |
+2.5 |
 Chargers vs  Rams |
-6.5 |
 Chiefs vs  Broncos |
-1.5 |
 Patriots vs  Dolphins |
+7.5 |
 Eagles vs  Commanders |
-3.5 |
 Bears vs  Seahawks |
+3.5 |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Expert Week 8 NFL ATS picks
Panthers vs Packers: Panthers (+3.5)
Carolina's 43-13 loss to Tampa Bay looks ugly, but Green Bay isn't exactly lighting up the scoreboard. The Packers scored just 17 points against Detroit, and their offense has been inconsistent all season.
Both teams are on a short week, so I don't expect a particularly polished game. The Panthers have enough offensive ability to hang around, and getting more than a field goal makes them the better side.
Ravens vs Bills: Ravens (+3.5)
Buffalo has the rest advantage coming off its bye, but its defense has struggled to get stops consistently. That gives Baltimore a chance to trade scores if Lamar Jackson is healthy enough to play his usual game.
The Ravens have moved the ball reasonably well even with Jackson sidelined, and his expected return raises their ceiling. I'll take more than a field goal, although Jackson's mobility is the biggest thing to monitor.
Titans vs Bengals: Bengals (-10.5)
Laying double digits isn't comfortable, but Cincinnati has a clear edge on both sides of the ball. The Bengals just put 35 points on Baltimore, while Tennessee has struggled to move the ball all season.
Cincinnati's passing attack should find opportunities against this defense, and the Titans haven't shown enough offensive consistency to answer when they fall behind. The backdoor cover is the danger, but I'll lay the points.
Cardinals vs Cowboys: Cardinals (+6.5)
Dallas can score, but its defense has been one of the league's easiest to move the ball against. That gives Arizona a reasonable path to keeping this within a touchdown.
The Cowboys are also on a short week, after a division game. Arizona doesn't need to win a shootout here. It just needs to finish a few drives and avoid costly turnovers.
Vikings vs Lions: Vikings (+3.5)
Minnesota's unbeaten record has been built on a defense that's among the league's best, and that's a real problem for Detroit.
The Lions still have enough firepower to win, but their defense has been vulnerable, which should help an otherwise limited Vikings offense move the chains.
This looks like a one-possession game, and getting the extra half-point above a field goal makes Minnesota my preferred side.
Colts vs Jaguars: Jaguars (-7.5)
Jacksonville comes off a bye with a major advantage in offensive efficiency. The Jaguars have moved the ball consistently, while Indianapolis has lost three straight and managed only 10 points against Minnesota last weekend.
Extra preparation should help Jacksonville attack a familiar division opponent, and its defense is capable of making life difficult for the Colts. Laying more than a touchdown carries risk, but this matchup favors the home team.
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Raiders vs Jets: Jets (+1.5)
The Jets' loss to previously winless Miami is hard to ignore, but Las Vegas hasn't shown enough to deserve being favored on the road.
New York has been slightly more efficient over the full season, and the Raiders have struggled to establish a reliable ground game.
Neither team inspires much confidence, so the price matters. I'll take the home underdog to keep it close and potentially win outright.
Browns vs Steelers: Browns (+3.5)
Pittsburgh is coming off a win over New Orleans in Paris, and the turnaround after international travel isn't ideal. More importantly, neither offense has been consistently productive, so this AFC North matchup could come down to a handful of possessions.
Cleveland has enough defense to stay competitive, and getting more than a field goal is valuable in a game with limited scoring expectations. I'm taking the Browns to keep it tight.
Falcons vs Buccaneers: Falcons (+2.5)
Tampa Bay just scored 43 points against Carolina, but one big afternoon doesn't erase a season of uneven offensive play. Atlanta's 29-20 win over San Francisco was more impressive than it might look, and the Falcons have enough talent to challenge Tampa Bay on both sides.
This should be a competitive division game rather than a Buccaneers runaway. I'll take the points with Atlanta and lean toward the outright upset.
Chargers vs Rams: Rams (-6.5)
The Los Angeles Chargers are winless, and their offense has been one of the least efficient in football. That's a bad combination against a Rams team coming off a 35-point performance and playing well on both sides of the ball.
The Chargers had a bye to make adjustments, which gives me some pause. The spread has also climbed sharply, but the Rams still have enough advantages to win by multiple possessions.
Chiefs vs Broncos: Chiefs (-1.5)
Kansas City's 20-3 loss in Seattle was ugly, but the Chiefs have been much better than Denver in the underlying numbers this season. Their offense has been more efficient, and their defense has also performed at a higher level.
Denver deserves credit for winning games, especially at home, but the Broncos' offense hasn't been particularly convincing. I'll back Kansas City to respond and win by at least a field goal.
Patriots vs Dolphins: Dolphins (+7.5)
New England is the better team and has extra rest after playing Thursday, so this isn't a pick I love. Still, asking the Patriots to cover more than a touchdown on the road is a lot, especially when their offense hasn't been consistently explosive.
Miami finally got a win against the Jets and showed it can put points on the board. I'll take the cushion and hope the Dolphins keep this within one possession.
Eagles vs Commanders: Commanders (-4.5)
Washington comes off its bye while Philadelphia is on a short week, creating a clear preparation advantage for the Commanders.
The Eagles are dealing with plenty of distractions on and off the field, while Washington hasn't been especially convincing either, but the rest edge and quarterback advantage give it the better setup. I'll lay the points at home.
Bears vs Seahawks: Bears (+3.5)
Chicago gets a long break after beating New England on Thursday, while Seattle has a shorter turnaround following its win over Kansas City. The Seahawks have a terrific defense, but their offense has been inconsistent enough to keep opponents in games.
The Bears have moved the ball more efficiently and should benefit from the extra preparation. I'll take Chicago and the field goal hook.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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