Sunday’s AFC West rematch sends Kansas City to Empower Field at Mile High for a 4:25 p.m. ET kickoff. My Chiefs vs. Broncos player props center on fading Week 1’s results, starting with Kenneth Walker III’s rushing line.
Courtland Sutton and Patrick Mahomes also present intriguing angles tied to Denver’s changing personnel and a defense positioned to respond.
Check out more NFL picks for Week 8.
Best Chiefs vs Broncos props
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| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Kenneth Walker III Under 89.5 rushing yards |
54% |
 Courtland Sutton Over 44.5 receiving yards |
54% |
| Patrick Mahomes Under 224.5 passing yards |
54% |
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Prop pick #1: Kenneth Walker III Under 89.5 rushing yards
I'd play Kansas City RB Kenneth Walker III's rushing prop down to 85.5 yards.
In Week 1, Walker ran for 173 yards on 23 carries against the Broncos, who had one of the worst tackling performances in recent NFL history, missing 28 tackles. Denver allowed 247 yards after those missed tackles, the most ever in the NFL's Next Gen Stats era (est. 2018).
Essentially, I'm predicting the Broncos make sure someone else besides Walker beats them Sunday. It was Week 1, so maybe Denver was rusty and Chiefs head coach Andy Reid caught them off guard with some new run concepts. Plus, the Broncos are 10th in ESPN's run-stop win rate.
Prop pick #2: Courtland Sutton Over 44.5 receiving yards
Denver WR Courtland Sutton's Over 44.5 receiving yards, up to 46.5, fits into my theme of fading Week 1's results. He caught just two passes for 11 yards against Kansas City earlier this season.
However, Sutton's target share could increase Sunday because Broncos RB R.J. Harvey has been ruled out and first-year WR Jaylen Waddle is questionable. Waddle and Harvey rank first and second, respectively, in targets, with Sutton sandwiched between them.
Before Waddle got to Denver, Sutton had 50+ receiving yards in 25 of 37 regular-season and playoff games, with QB Bo Nix throwing him passes over the last two seasons.
If Denver has to redistribute volume, Sutton is the obvious beneficiary.
Prop pick #3: Patrick Mahomes Under 224.5 passing yards
Patrick Mahomes' Under 224.5 passing yards has value up to 58%. In fact, I wouldn't mind taking his Under 219.5 at plus-money.
Mahomes threw for just 184 yards against Denver in Week 1, and 166 of those yards came after the catch. Again, I'm counting on the Broncos actually tackling this time, which should significantly cut into Kansas City's YAC.
Denver's coverage should also be stickier with All-Pro CB Patrick Surtain II returning. According to Pro.NFL.com, the Broncos lead the NFL in average target separation allowed.
Between better tackling and Surtain's return, Mahomes should be throwing into tight windows all afternoon.
I'll make him beat this number through the air rather than letting his receivers do the work.
- Prop picks: 14-22, -8.98 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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