NFL Anytime Touchdown Picks, TD Bets and a 19.2x Week 8 TD Parlay

It's Halloween weekend, and I'm hunting for touchdown treats, mispriced monsters, and a few ghosts of red zones past to get the TD train back on track.

We've been beating the closing numbers for weeks, but the end zone has been haunted lately. It's time to exorcise those demons and turn these NFL picks into winners.

These are my favorite NFL anytime touchdown scorer picks for Week 8.

Best Week 8 anytime touchdown scorer picks

For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.

Game	Pick	Probability
BAL BUF	Zay Flowers	36%
TEN CIN	Tony Pollard	47%
IND  JAX	Travis Hunter	13%
MIN DET	Jordan Mason	46%
CLE PIT	KC Concepcion	27%
ATL TB	Chris Godwin	27%
ARI DAL	Tyler Allgeier	31%
LVR NYJ	Omar Cooper	27%
LAC LAR	Davis Allen	15%
NE MIA	Eli Raridon	19%
KC DEN	Jonah Coleman	31%
PHI WAS	Rachaad White	35%
CHI SEA	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	53%

Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.

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Ravens vs Bills TD pick

Zay Flowers 36%

GRADE: 🟢

Zay Flowers' TD price has ranged from 2.15x to 3.1x, but if Lamar Jackson plays and Buffalo doesn't trade for an entirely new secondary, Flowers should have closer to a 41% chance of scoring Sunday.

Jackson was limited in practice last week, and Flowers has a TD and 100+ receiving yards in 50% of his games this year despite the injuries at quarterback. Buffalo's defense allows the most receiving touchdowns to opposing wide receivers in football at 1.4 per game. 

Titans vs Bengals TD pick

Tony Pollard 47%

GRADE: 🟡

I'm buying some Tony Pollard this week against the Bengals, and I'd play him down to 1.91x (52.4%). He had 28 RB opportunities last week, accounting for 88% of the backfield workload. The Titans don't want Cam Ward throwing 35 times a game, and Pollard should get fed whether the Titans are trailing or the game stays close.

This offense ranks dead last in PROE, and Tyjae Spears, who missed last week, had just one carry in Week 6. Pollard has one of the safest roles in any offense and has as many red-zone carries as Jonathan Taylor on the season.

Colts vs Jaguars TD pick

Travis Hunter 13%

GRADE: 🟢

Travis Hunter broke out in Week 6, and although he wasn't running many routes, he was targeted on four of his seven routes. Brian Thomas' role is falling off a cliff, and Liam Coen is talking about "chomping away" at Hunter's increased role in the offense going forward. He isn't going to see 100 snaps, but his offensive role looks like it could slowly increase each week.

The talent is there, and 13% doesn't seem like enough of an adjustment coming out of the bye. He shouldn't have a lower probability of scoring than Josh Cameron or Thomas.

Vikings vs Lions TD pick

Jordan Mason 46%

GRADE: 🟡

Aaron Jones exited last week, but even before the injury, Jordan Mason was commanding the largest share of the backfield workload, with 57% of the opportunities. Jones has always struggled to stay healthy and aggravated an existing knee injury last week. Mason could be the lead back on a defense-first team that ranks in the bottom quarter of the league in PROE.

The Lions are one of seven teams allowing 27+ points per game and rank 27th in red-zone touchdown rate. Jones didn't practice Wednesday, and this price should be 54% if he's out.

Browns vs Steelers TD pick

KC Concepcion 27%

GRADE: 🟡

Coming back from Europe with no bye is a death sentence for most teams, as they're a cool 0-8 ATS in the last eight such situations. Pittsburgh's offense didn't look great vs. the Saints, so the TD choice in this game is pretty easy for me.

The Steelers have allowed the fewest rushing TDs to opposing running backs in football, but after backing Denzel Boston for two weeks with nothing to show for it, it's KC Concepcion for me.

He had 10 targets last week and passed Boston for the team lead in target share. He also carried the ball three times, which is something the Browns might have to get creative with again this week against that Pittsburgh defense.

I got this at 27% and would play it up to 29%.

Falcons vs Buccaneers TD pick

Chris Godwin 27%

GRADE: 🟡

Baker is back, and the Buccaneers didn't need to pass much last week, finishing with the lowest PROE in football. That will be very tough to replicate, which should mean a bigger workload for Chris Godwin, who operated as WR1 with Emeka Egbuka out.

Egbuka is dealing with multiple injuries, including a concussion, so his return to the field isn't guaranteed this week. At worst, Godwin should be WR2 against a defense that has given up 105 points over its last four games.

I got this at 27% and would play to 32% if Egbuka sits and 30% if he plays.

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Cardinals vs Cowboys TD pick

Tyler Allgeier 31%

GRADE: 🟡

If you're choosing between Bam Knight and Tyler Allgeier, you're taking the latter at 31% vs. Knight at 39%. That gap is too wide when Allgeier has four more carries over the last two weeks and six red-zone opportunities.

Neither is a bad choice against the Cowboys, who just gave up 121 rushing yards to the Eagles on Monday night and two rushing TDs to opposing RBs. Dallas is a bottom-tier team at defending the position.

Bam might be doing more with his carries, but I'd rather back volume, which comes with less variance. I got Allgeier at 31% and would play him to 33%.

Raiders vs Jets TD pick

Omar Cooper 27%

GRADE: 🟡

Only the Bills' defense is allowing more TDs to opposing WRs than the Raiders. Since Week 3, this defense ranks dead last in EPA/play, success rate, and dropback success rate.

Omar Cooper still ripped off 115 yards and a score last week despite the return of Adonai Mitchell and the team running just 53 plays. He's gone for 100+ yards and a score in back-to-back weeks. His efficiency is off the charts right now, and he shouldn't be priced 100 points longer than Garrett Wilson. I have Cooper at 30%.

Chargers vs Rams TD pick

Davis Allen 15%

GRADE: 🟢

The Rams went with heavy TE sets last week without Davante Adams in the lineup, and Colby Parkinson stood out again while Tyler Higbee's targets continued to fall. However, Parkinson picked up a rib injury and didn't practice Wednesday, which could open the door for Davis Allen to step up.

Allen had two TDs last week on five targets and could see some run as TE1 if Parkinson sits. He's also being used well in the red zone, with four red-zone targets over his last three games. Terrance Ferguson is also out, potentially opening the door to a bigger role for Allen in an indoor game.

Allen is at 15% but should be priced closer to 24%, around Higbee's current price.

Patriots vs Dolphins TD pick

Eli Raridon 19%

GRADE: 🟡

Eli Raridon has been on my TD radar since opening night vs. the Seahawks. He added another score last week and has 50+ yards in two of his last three games, along with a red-zone target in four straight contests.

Romeo Doubs and Mack Hollins are out, and A.J. Brown was limited at practice Wednesday. The rookie tight end has value at 5x or better as a legitimate red-zone threat on a team that's struggling to run the ball. I wouldn't go past 22% or 4.5x.

Chiefs vs Broncos TD pick

Jonah Coleman 31%

GRADE: 🟢

After Jonah Coleman put up 54 yards on nine carries last week vs. the Cardinals, Denver head coach Sean Payton said he needs to get him more touches. It was Coleman's first game off IR, and he accounted for 50% of the backfield opportunities. J.K. Dobbins poached a one-yard score, but his price is the same despite playing just 12 snaps.

There's a good chance Coleman leads this backfield in snaps again this week. With Jaylen Waddle exiting last week, Denver is looking for an offensive spark in a divisional game where the Broncos can leapfrog the Chiefs for the AFC West lead.

I got this at 31%, but 36% seems much closer to the fair price.

Eagles vs Commanders TD pick

Rachaad White 35%

GRADE: 🟢

I'll back an RB1 against the Eagles, who just gave up 204 rushing yards to the Cowboys and are playing on a short week. Rachaad White is one of the better positive-EV touchdown options in this game, with a fair probability of 40%.

Jacory Croskey-Merritt is on IR, Terry McLaurin is out, and Stefon Diggs is questionable. Austin Ekeler saw almost no action in Week 6 before the bye, while White played 69% of the snaps and accounted for 60% of the RB opportunities. His receiving ability also keeps him on the field in two-minute situations and negative game scripts. I got this at 35%.

Bears vs Seahawks TD pick

Jaxon Smith-Njigba 53%

GRADE: 🟡

Jaxon Smith-Njigba is going to be a 2,000-yard receiver this year. He has a 36% target share and a league-leading 51% air-yard share. According to Sumer Sports, this is the best 27-game stretch by any receiver in the tracking era. He's dominant, and this offense is nothing when it isn't feeding him.

I'll take the JSN TD to 56% this week. Chicago plays at a fast pace, which could create more opportunities for both offenses. The Bears are also one of just three teams to allow a touchdown and 150-plus receiving yards to opposing wide receivers in a game this season.

Week 8 touchdown combo

The combo features four of the game's best wide receivers, with a Monday sweat to finish it off. Zay Flowers is my favorite WR touchdown this week at this price. I expect the Bengals to put up 30 against the Titans. CeeDee Lamb nearly made the full card against the Cardinals, but I had to fade that Cowboys defense. JSN is historically good and should be a great way to cap off Week 8.

My weekly NFL TD props column is 21-70 this season for -15.7 units.

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