NFL Week 11 Odds: Underdog G-Men Can Cover Against Reeling Buccaneers

UPDATE, 3:28 P.M. ET, TUESDAY, NOV. 16: After moving down to Patriots -6.5 early in the day Tuesday, that number didn't last long as sharp bettors were waiting for that lower number. A few key wagers on the Pats at 6.5 pushed the number back up to -7 by Tuesday afternoon.

UPDATE, 11:27 A.M. ET, TUESDAY, NOV. 16: The Patriots are fully back in the eyes of the betting public. Covers Consensus is reporting 69 percent of the pointspread wagers on the side of New England and the spread for this one jumped up to the key number of -7 late in the day Monday. Early Tuesday that number relaxed a little, back to Pats -6.5. The total bumped up slightly from the opening number of 47 up to 47.5.

UPDATE, 8:45 A.M. ET, MONDAY, NOV. 15: Early money came in on the Patriots as road favorites and moved their spread from -5.5 (-115) to -6 (-105) at some books. As of 8:45 a.m. ET, there are still some New England -5.5 (-115) spreads still available at select sportsbooks.

UPDATE, 9:40 P.M. ET, SUNDAY, NOV. 14: The Patriots are fresh off a beatdown of the Browns and opened as 5.5-point road favorites in Atlanta on the short week. That spread has seen its juice slide from flat -110 to -115, with early play on New England. The Patriots have won four straight and five of their last six and now face a Falcons squad still sore from a 43-3 beating in Dallas this past weekend. The total for Thursday Night Football hit the board at 47 points.

UPDATE, 8:33 P.M. ET, FRIDAY, NOV. 19: Friday's report that the Saints will be without RB Alvin Kamara on Sunday in Philadelphia caused a jump in the point spread from Eagles -1.5 to -2.5. DraftKings is reporting 59 percent of the spread handle on the road underdog Saints, so we'll see where this number goes over the weekend. The total is down slightly from 43 to 42.5.

UPDATE, 9:53 P.M. ET, WEDNESDAY, NOV. 17: Books are split 50-50 on this matchup at Eagles -1 and Eagles -1.5. DraftKings is reporting 58 percent of their point spread money coming in on the Saints with some of those bets coming from trusted sources, which would explain their move from 1.5 to 1. The total opened at 44 and has dropped slightly early in the week, down to the current number of 43.5.

UPDATE, 9:00 A.M. ET, MONDAY, NOV. 15: After an impressive win in Denver, Philadelphia returns home for Week 11. Bookies opened the Eagles as 1.5-point home favorites hosting the Saints, who bring a two-game losing skid into the City of Brotherly Love. The total for this matchup opened 44 points.

UPDATE, 10:47 A.M. ET, WEDNESDAY, NOV. 17: The Jets announced Wednesday morning that Joe Flacco would be starting under center in Sunday's game vs. Miami. The betting numbers came off the board at most shops, but popped back up at the exact same numbers as before the announcement. The Dolphins are still 3.5-point favorites on the road at the Meadowlands and the total sits at 45.

UPDATE, 10:00 A.M. ET, WEDNESDAY, NOV. 17: After opening at Dolphins -2.5 the favorite side of this matchup has seen a steady stream of betting action. Early betting pushed this pointspread up to -3 and sustained flooding has pushed the spread though the key number, up to Miami -3.5 on Wednesday morning. DraftKings reported late Thursday that 81 percent of the money wagered has been on the side of the road favorites.

UPDATE, 9:00 A.M. ET, MONDAY, NOV. 15: Miami opened as 2.5-point road chalk in East Rutherford, having enjoyed a mini bye after upsetting Baltimore last Thursday night. Early action came in on the Dolphins and bumped this spread to Miami -3 (-105) and continued to land on the road team, ticking the vig up to Fins -3 (-115). The Jets are hoping rookie QB Zach Wilson can return under center for Week 11. The total opened at 45.5 points.

UPDATE, 3:20 P.M. ET, WEDNESDAY, NOV. 17: After opening at Panthers -2.5 the pointspread for this game quickly got to -3.5 by Monday evening. Outside of that early shift there hasn't been much early in the week. DraftKings reported Wednesday that they are seeing 66 percent of the side bets on the visiting Washington Football Team, but 61 percent of the money on Cam Newton and the Panthers. It's "Sharps-vs-Squares" with the big bets on the home favorite and the public on the road underdog - this isn't normal. The total is down slightly from 43.5 to 43.

UPDATE, 9:00 A.M. ET, MONDAY, NOV. 15: Who had a bet on Cam Newton starting a game for the Carolina Panthers this season? Anyone? That’s a possibility in Week 11, with the veteran QB in line to start against his former head coach Ron Rivera and the Washington Football Team. Books opened the Panthers as 2.5-point home favorites and that moved to -3 in the first hour and a half of action Sunday night. This total opened at 43.5 points.

UPDATE, 3:21 P.M. ET, THURSDAY, NOV. 18: With the potential for cold, wind, rain and/or wet snow in the forecast for Buffalo on Sunday afternoon, the total was the mover on Thursday. The Over/Under opened at 49.5, got as high as 50.5 early in the week, but dropped back to 49.5 based on the weather outlook. The pointspread is still holding at Bills -7.

UPDATE, 11:37 A.M. ET, TUESDAY, NOV. 16: This game popped back up to the key number of Bill -7 early in the day Tuesday. Early in the week this number has been hopping back-and-forth between 6.5 and 7 but now sits at a flat -110 on each side of the seven points at DraftKings.

UPDATE, 9:00 A.M. ET, MONDAY, NOV. 15: Buffalo hit the board as a touchdown favorite versus Indianapolis Sunday night and some shops have been bet down to -6.5 (-110) with early play on the Colts. Indianapolis +7 is still out there at -118 vig. This total opened at 49.5 points and saw a brief drop to 49 before coming back to the original number.

UPDATE, 10:07 A.M. ET, FRIDAY, NOV. 19: The pointspread for this matchup jumped from Browns -11 to -12 on Friday morning. Cleveland confirmed that Baker Mayfield would be starting at quarterback and also activated running backs Nick Chubb and Demetric Felton from the reserve/Covid-19 list.

UPDATE, 3:27 P.M. ET, WEDNESDAY, NOV. 17: The Browns moved from -10 to -11 on Wednesday afternoon. This is a big move off a key number without any real injury announcements from either team. Browns' quarterback Baker Mayfield will play, as he always does, and there is no updated news out of the depleted backfield. DraftKings reported Wednesday afternoon that 58 percent of the bets on this contest are on the underdog Lions, but 53 percent of the money wagered is on the Browns. Some of that money must belong to a very trusted source to justify this move.

UPDATE, 9:00 A.M. ET, MONDAY, NOV. 15: With the Lions coming oh-so-close to their first victory in Week 10 – a bleak 16-16 tie in a rain-soaked Pittsburgh – oddsmakers installed Detroit as a 10-point underdog in Cleveland. Browns QB Baker Mayfield is reportedly OK to play this Sunday after suffering a knee injury in an ugly loss to the Patriots on Sunday. This total opened as low as 44.5 and has climbed as high as 46.5 points as of Monday morning.

UPDATE, 8:27 P.M. ET, FRIDAY, NOV. 19: The pointspread for this matchup has been wobbling between 49ers -6 and 6.5 all week long, but Friday afternoon finally saw the move up to the key number of -7. DraftKings is reporting 80 percent of the pointspread wagers and 75 percent of the handle on the Niners, so this move makes total sense.

UPDATE, 11:43 A.M. ET, TUESDAY, NOV. 16: A huge win by the 49ers over the rival Rams has forced their number for Week 11 up slightly from SF -6 up to -6.5. The total opened at 47 but dropped down to 46 after a very impressive performance by the Niners' defense Monday night.

UPDATE, 9:15 A.M. ET, MONDAY, NOV. 15: The Niners still have a home game versus the rival Rams on Monday Night Football, but are early 6-point chalk crossing the country for a 1 p.m. ET clash with Jacksonville. This lookahead total is set at 46.5 points.

UPDATE, 3:34 P.M. ET, TUESDAY, NOV. 16: After initially dropping from -10.5 down to -10, the Titans' pointspread popped to -11 on Tuesday afternoon. Covers Consensus is showing 76 percent of the side wagers on the favorite Titans and DraftKings is reporting 82 percent of the money wagered on the Tennessee side of the spread. The total is holding at 44.5 despite 63 percent of the early money wagered on the total being on the Over.

UPDATE, 9:15 A.M. ET, MONDAY, NOV. 15: The Titans bring their six-game winning streak into Week 11 but face a dip in competition when they welcome the Texans to the Music City. Bookies opened Tennessee as a 10.5-point favorite and that spread dipped to -10 (-115) at some books early Monday morning with early play on the underdog. Houston is coming off a bye week and has been a double-digit dog in five on its nine games in 2021 – going 2-2 ATS in those one-sided matchups. This total opened at 45.5 points and has slimmed to 44.5.

UPDATE, 10:13 A.M. ET, FRIDAY, NOV. 19: The pointspread for this divisional game has seen a slow and steady decrease all week. The Packers opened as 2.5 or 3 point favorites, depending on the book, and that number has been ticking downward all week. As of Friday morning the spread is all the way down to Packers -1. Aaron Rodgers has yet to practice this week (which would explain the line movement) but said he's a full go for Sunday. If there's one thing we've learned over the last few weeks, it's that we can ALWAYS trust the good word of Aaron Rodgers.

UPDATE, 3:46 P.M. ET, TUESDAY, NOV. 16: As predicted, this pointspread got to Packers -3 for a brief period Tuesday. The move didn't last long and that number was back down to -2.5 by the afternoon. DraftKings is reporting 83 percent of the bets and 90 percent of the money wagered on the Packers. This brief move may have been a feeler to see where the sharps are standing for this matchup.

UPDATE, 8:45 A.M. ET, MONDAY, NOV. 15: Green Bay opened as a 2.5-point favorite in Minnesota, with the vig at -115. That price on the Cheeseheads below the field goal is climbing, with Packers -2.5 (-120) on the board as of Monday morning. If more action on the favorite continues to roll in, the spread will soon jump to Green Bay -3. This total opened at 49.5 points.

UPDATE, 8:30 A.M. ET, SUNDAY, NOV. 21: With Lamar Jackson still dealing with a non-COVID illness, and his status for Week 11 up in the air, the Ravens are sitting as low as -5. Books are sticking to the dead number and will move quickly upon any updates on his health. Should Jackson start, this spread will likely go to a touchdown or even higher. But if he does sit, expect to see one of the biggest line adjustments for a single player — akin to spread value for an Aaron Rodgers or Dak Prescott (between 6.5 and 7.5 points).  

As it stands, WynnBet sportsbooks are reporting almost 73 percent of bets on Baltimore but 80 percent of the money on Chicago, as bettors try to get ahead of the injury updates. This total is sitting as low as 43.5 points and will likely dip sub-40 should Jackson sit out. 

UPDATE, 2:08 P.M. ET, SATURDAY, NOV. 20: After announcing Friday that Raven's starting quarterback Lamar Jackson (illness) was good to go for Sunday, the team added Jackson to the injury report with a "Questionable" designation Saturday afternoon. Books are taking a middle position with the pointspread, moving from Ravens -6.5 down to -5.5. This will all depend on how Jackson feels when he wakes up Sunday morning.

UPDATE, 8:20 P.M. ET, FRIDAY, NOV. 19: Injury update Friday brought a huge line move in the Ravens' direction. A few days of uncertainty surrounding the status of QB Lamar Jackson were put to rest today - Jackson will start Sunday according to head coach John Harbaugh. And on the other side, the Bears will be without LB Khalil Mack, DT Akeim Hicks, and probably WR Allen Robinson for Sunday's game. All of this injury news broke at the same time and the pointspread jumped from Ravens -4 up to Ravens -6.5.

UPDATE, 10:30 A.M. ET, FRIDAY, NOV. 19: This pointspread continues to tumble as Ravens' quarterback Lamar Jackson and his center Bradley Bozeman have still yet to practice this week with a mysterious "non-COVID related" illness. As of Friday morning, this number is all the way down to Ravens -4 after being as high as -6.5 at some shops earlier in the week. The total is also down slightly from 45 to 44.5.

UPDATE, 3:45 P.M. ET, WEDNESDAY, NOV. 17: The Ravens moved from -6 down to -5 on Wednesday afternoon after it was announced that quarterback Lamar Jackson and his center Bradley Bozeman were both sent home from practice with an "illness". The team is saying that it's not COVID-related, but who knows at this point.

UPDATE, 9:30 A.M. ET, MONDAY, NOV. 15: The Ravens have had a week and a half to stew in their terrible performance on Thursday Night Football in Week 10 and opened as 6-point road chalk in Chicago this Sunday. Early money hit Baltimore at the key number and moved this spread to Ravens -6.5 (-110) at some books. The total hit the board at 45 points.

UPDATE, 3:28 P.M. ET, THURSDAY, NOV. 18: The betting numbers for this matchup have been pretty quiet all week. The Bengals are still one-point road favorites as of Thursday after briefly edging up to 1.5 on Wednesday morning. The total hit the boards at 49/49.5 and has ticked up slightly to 50.5 as of Thursday afternoon. DraftKings is reporting 77 percent of their Over/Under handle on the Over.

UPDATE, 9:30 A.M. ET, MONDAY, NOV. 15: The lookahead line for this game had Las Vegas as a slim favorite before the Raiders were rolled by the Chiefs on Sunday Night Football. That official Week 11 opener has Cincinnati giving a single point as a road favorite in Sin City, coming off a bye in Week 10. The total opened as big as 49.5 points and has dipped to 49.

UPDATE, 3:53 P.M. ET, TUESDAY, NOV. 16: The total for this matchup is going to be worth paying attention to. After opening at 53.5 this number has been rocketing skyward early in the week - moving from 53.5, to 54.5, to, 55.5, and jumped another point to 56.5 on Tuesday afternoon. Early reports from DraftKings are that 93 percent of the money wagered on this total during the first couple days of the week are on the Over. Don't expect this to be the final number.

UPDATE, 11:49 A.M. ET, TUESDAY, NOV. 16: After opening at Chiefs -2.5 the pointspread was bet down to -1.5 by Cowboys' backers on Monday. Well, the Chiefs looked good hammering the Raiders on Sunday Night Football and their backers have bought that number back to KC -2.5. The total is holding at its adjusted number of 55.5.

UPDATE, 9:30 A.M. ET, MONDAY, NOV. 15: When the smoke cleared on Kansas City’s successful Sunday Night Football appearance in Week 10, this official Week 11 opener pegged the Chiefs as 2.5-point home favorites hosting Dallas for a 4:25 p.m. ET kickoff. That spread has dipped to -1.5 at some books as of Monday morning, with early action on the Cowboys. The lookahead total for this game was set at 55 points back in the spring and slimmed to 53.5 before Week 10. Some books hung 53.5 as the official opener and quickly ran up to 54.5 and then to 55.5 points.

UPDATE, 10:36 A.M. ET, FRIDAY, NOV. 19: We're still awaiting official word on Cardinals' quarterback Kyler Murray and wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins for Sunday's game in Seattle. The pointspread is down slightly from Cards -2.5 to -2 and the total has dropped steadily all week - after opening at 50 that number is down to 47.5 as of Friday morning. Sharps bettors seem to think they know something here as DraftKings is reporting 56 percent of their pointspread wagers on Arizona, but 62 percent of the spread handle on the Seahawks. It's a classic "Sharps-vs.-Squares" showdown.

UPDATE, 10:10 A.M. ET, WEDNESDAY, NOV. 17: This number has been fairly steady at Cardinals -2.5 early in the week. A couple of books have dabbled up to -3 or down to -2. The injury status of Murray and Hopkins is still very uncertain at this point. The total has seen a slight drop - after opening at 50/50.5 that number was dropped to 49 during the day Tuesday.

UPDATE, 9:30 A.M. ET, MONDAY, NOV. 15: NFC West rivals battle in Seattle when the Seahawks welcome the Cardinals in Week 11. With the health of Arizona QB Kyler Murray and star WR DeAndre Hopkins still unclear, this spread hit the board at Cardinals -2 and jumped to -2.5 with early action trying to get ahead of any injury news later in the week. This total opened as low as 50 points and is up to 50.5 as of Monday morning.

UPDATE, 2:14 P.M. ET, SATURDAY, NOV. 20: Steelers' quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has been cleared for Sunday night's game in Los Angeles against the Chargers. Books adjusted by ticking the pointspread down from LAC -5.5 to -5 and bumping the total slightly from 47 to 47.5.

UPDATE, 3:34 P.M. ET, THURSDAY, NOV. 18: Steelers' quarterback Ben Roethlisberger's status for Sunday night is still very uncertain. He must clear two consecutive negative COVID tests before being allowed back with the team, so this news will likely not be coming until the weekend. Books really don't know what to do with this number. The Chargers opened as 3.5-point favorites but that number has been as high as -6. The pointspread is currently at -5.5 with DraftKings reporting 88 percent of the handle on the home favorites.

UPDATE, 3:59 P.M. ET, TUESDAY, NOV. 16: The dead money movement on this pointspread continued on Tuesday afternoon, skipping from Chargers -4.5 up to -6. The Steelers will be without Minkah Fitzpatrick and the status is still uncertain on Ben Roethlisberger and T.J. Watt. Bettors are hammering the Chargers with 90 percent of the money wagered on the home favorites.

UPDATE, 11:56 A.M. ET, TUESDAY, NOV. 16: Books shifted to a dead number on Monday afternoon of Chargers -4 in order to see where the action pushes this matchup. Well, bettors responded with 90 percent of side money at DraftKings on the favorite Chargers and books edged that number higher to Chargers -4.5. The total is down to 47 at DraftKings with 85 percent of the early money on the Under.

UPDATE, 9:30 A.M. ET, MONDAY, NOV. 15: Sunday Night Football in Week 11 brings the Steelers to Los Angeles for a primetime showdown with the Chargers. This spread opened Los Angeles as low as -3.5 but some books hung the dead number of -4. This total hit the board at as low as 47 points but some shops opened 48 and we’re seeing a shift to a market consensus of 47.5 Over/Under.

UPDATE, 10:46 A.M. ET, FRIDAY, NOV. 19: There hasn't really been much to discuss with these betting numbers all week. As of Friday morning the Buccaneers are still 10.5-point home favorites and the total has been steady all week at 49.5. According to a Friday report from DraftKings, sharp bettors seem to like the idea of getting more than 10 points with the Giants. 62 percent of the side wagers for this game are on the Bucs, but 60 percent of the money taken in is on the G-Men, indicating that the larger bets are coming in on the road underdogs.

UPDATE, 9:30 A.M. ET, MONDAY, NOV. 15: Tom Brady takes on an old rival on Monday Night Football in Week 11, having just fallen to another NFC East team in Week 10. The Buccaneers are aiming for a bounce-back at home after a poor showing in Washington this past weekend. That has Tampa Bay opening as an 11-point home favorite versus the Giants and some books are already up to -11.5 (-110) on the Bucs. This total opened as big as 50.5 points and slimmed to 49.5 with early play on the Under.