My NFL underdogs column has been like a zombie crawling out of the grave.
I dug a hole early in the season while starting 3-6 against the spread in my weekly NFL picks. But my underdogs have been less like the slow-moving “Night of the Living Dead” zombies and more like the freakishly fast “rage” infected ones from the “28 Days Later” series over the past four weeks.
There have been more treats than tricks with those featured dogs, leading to a 9-3 ATS mark since Week 4. That includes a perfect 3-0 last Sunday.
With the spooky weekend upon us, let’s hope the “undead underdogs” can continue to feast.
Here are my best NFL underdog picks for Week 8. Happy Halloween!
Last week: 3-0 ATS
Season: 12-9 ATS
NFL Week 8 underdog picks
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Chargers +6.5 at Rams
Remember when your Nintendo wouldn’t work, leaving just a flickering screen and sheer panic that your prized possession was broken.
Well, what did we do to fix that issue?
We took the game cartridge out, gave it all a good blow, and put it back in hoping for the best. And most times, that worked.
The Los Angeles Chargers take the same approach to Week 8. A bye last week allowed the winless Bolts to give their glitching game a mighty puff.
That reset not only turned down the heat on the coaching staff, but it also allowed this injury-plagued roster to heal up ahead of Sunday’s Battle of L.A.
The Chargers could get two top wide receivers back on the field, along with starters on the offensive line. Those are significant positives for QB Justin Herbert, whose struggles are starting to bleed over to his fiancee’s singing career.
Defensively, the L.A. secondary could get a restock in talent with cornerbacks Donte Jackson and Rodney Shelley practicing, and safety Derwin James working his way back from a hamstring issue.
This is essentially a neutral-site game in SoFi Stadium against a Los Angeles Rams squad that’s picked up wins over Las Vegas, Philadelphia, and the N.Y. Giants. Not exactly the resume of a Super Bowl contender.
With trade rumors swirling around L.A. and office chairs smoldering, this is a do-or-die game for the Chargers, who haven’t been in as good of a place as this Week 8 spot since the offseason.
Chiefs at Broncos +1.5
The Denver Broncos erupted for 30 points in last Sunday’s win over Arizona, finishing the week as the No. 8 offense in EPA per play after rating out No. 24 in that advanced metric over the previous six weeks.
You’ll have to excuse me if I’m not jumping on Bo Nix's NFL MVP odds anytime soon.
But while I’m hesitant to buy into the Broncos’ offensive turnaround, I fully endorse the defense’s return to glory after a crappy start to the season. Vance Joseph’s stop unit has been elite during the team’s three-game win streak, and it's peaking just in time for payback in Week 8.
The Kansas City Chiefs topped Denver at home in Week 1 before building a perfect 5-0 record against soft defenses until running into a legit one in Seattle on Sunday night. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs' offense were stymied while scoring only three points and averaging 4.3 yards per play against the Seahawks.
Kansas City couldn’t build momentum, leaving SNF with a 3-for-11 count on third down. It now faces a Broncos defense slamming the door on third downs in the past three games (35.4% conversion rate allowed).
Eagles +5.5 at Commanders
The Philadelphia Eagles eventually found themselves out of their depth in a shootout loss to the Dallas Cowboys on Monday.
For most of the game, Philly’s offense was able to keep pace with the Cowboys’ potent attack, holding a 21-20 lead late in the third quarter before surrendering 18 unanswered points.
To the Eagles’ credit, they hung tough, with a backup QB missing his top two WRs and a rusty Saquon Barkley coming back from injury. Philadelphia ranked No. 5 in EPA per play through the first 45 minutes among all Week 7 offenses.
Sunday night features Saquon & Co. heading to the nation’s capital to face a Washington Commanders team that injuries have declawed, with the Commanders losing their top wide receiver and running back.
Washington gets little support from its stop unit, which is ranked in the bottom 10 in many key metrics like success rate allowed, opponent's third-down conversions, and red-zone defense (dead last, with foes enjoying an almost 82% TD rate).
For all of Philly’s foibles in a new Sean Mannion offense, it doesn’t leave points on the table inside of the opponent's 20-yard line. The Eagles are fourth in red-zone touchdown percentage (73.7%), including a perfect 3-for-3 on Monday.
With Philadelphia on a short week and the Commies off a bye, the rest edge is puffing up the spread. It's just too much for Washington to cover in a divisional contest.
Week 8 underdog combo
Chargers +6.5
Broncos +1.5
Eagles +5.5
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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