Baylor vs BYU Picks & Props
BAY vs BYU Picks
NCAAF PicksBaylor +7.5, playable down to +6.5. The Bears are 3-0 ATS on the road with a +23.2 spread differential, while SP+ makes BYU only a 5.4-point favorite. Baylor's efficiency profile also suggests the ranking gap is overstated.
Baylor first-half +4.5, down to +3.5. The Bears have covered five straight first-half spreads on the road and allow only 8.8 first-half points per game against FBS teams. Neither offense looks explosive enough to pull away early.
Under 48.5, down to 47.5. BYU ranks 24th in yards per carry allowed, and both defenses have favorable explosive-play and line-yard matchups. Potential rain in Provo adds to the case for fewer big plays and sustained drives.
BYU is coming off an emotional Holy War loss to Utah, while Baylor has found new life since firing Dave Aranda. The Bears have scored 41+ points in back-to-back games and play at the fastest tempo in the country. Could Baylor catch the Cougars still recovering and pull off the upset?
Baylor +7.5, Under 48.5, and Baylor first-half +4.5. The Bears' strong road performance, BYU's slow offensive pace, and both teams' red-zone struggles point toward a low-scoring, competitive game where Baylor stays within the number throughout.
BAY vs BYU Consensus Picks
BAY vs BYU Props
| GAME & PLAYER PROPS | PROJECTIONS | ANALYSIS | BEST ODDS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
PASSING YARDS
D. Lagway
(QB)
o224.5 Passing Yards
231.46 OVER
PROJECTION
+7.0
DIFFERENCE
22.6%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING YARDS
BYU
B. Bachmeier
(QB)
u233.5 Passing Yards
223.95 UNDER
PROJECTION
-9.6
DIFFERENCE
20.42%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
D. Lagway
(QB)
u13.5 Rushing Yards
2.30 UNDER
PROJECTION
-11.2
DIFFERENCE
26.24%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
BYU
B. Bachmeier
(QB)
u44.5 Rushing Yards
41.79 UNDER
PROJECTION
-2.7
DIFFERENCE
16.03%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
BAY
R. Morris
(RB)
o31.5 Rushing Yards
35.04 OVER
PROJECTION
+3.5
DIFFERENCE
7.86%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
BAY
L. Brown IV
(WR)
o22.5 Receiving Yards
32.01 OVER
PROJECTION
+9.5
DIFFERENCE
26.1%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
BYU
J. Phillips
(WR)
o19.5 Receiving Yards
24.63 OVER
PROJECTION
+5.1
DIFFERENCE
25.21%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
BAY
J. Porter
(WR)
o18.5 Receiving Yards
24.22 OVER
PROJECTION
+5.7
DIFFERENCE
24.16%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
BAY
G. Freeman
(WR)
o80.5 Receiving Yards
81.97 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.5
DIFFERENCE
23.43%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
BYU
W. Lyons
(TE)
o46.5 Receiving Yards
54.34 OVER
PROJECTION
+7.8
DIFFERENCE
23.38%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
BAY
T. Livingston
(TE)
o19.5 Receiving Yards
23.37 OVER
PROJECTION
+3.9
DIFFERENCE
23.09%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
BYU
K. Kasper
(WR)
o45.5 Receiving Yards
53.41 OVER
PROJECTION
+7.9
DIFFERENCE
22.76%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
BYU
L. Glasker
(WR)
o68.5 Receiving Yards
71.14 OVER
PROJECTION
+2.6
DIFFERENCE
21.48%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
BAY
G. Freeman
(WR)
o6.5 Receptions
7.04 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.5
DIFFERENCE
13.77%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
BYU
W. Lyons
(TE)
o4.5 Receptions
4.91 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.4
DIFFERENCE
8.48%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
BAY
T. Livingston
(TE)
u2.5 Receptions
2.13 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.4
DIFFERENCE
-2.44%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
BYU
L. Glasker
(WR)
o4.5 Receptions
4.52 PUSH
PROJECTION
0.0
DIFFERENCE
-12.56%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
BYU
K. Kasper
(WR)
o3.5 Receptions
3.71 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.2
DIFFERENCE
-18.92%
EV
|
|||||||
|
CARRIES
BYU
B. Bachmeier
(QB)
o11.5 Carries
12.51 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.0
DIFFERENCE
15.52%
EV
|
|||||||
|
COMPLETIONS
BYU
B. Bachmeier
(QB)
u19.5 Completions
18.49 UNDER
PROJECTION
-1.0
DIFFERENCE
9.42%
EV
|
|||||||
|
COMPLETIONS
D. Lagway
(QB)
u21.5 Completions
21.33 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.2
DIFFERENCE
-30%
EV
|
|||||||
- Proj. Diff: Low to High
- Proj. Diff: High to Low
- Proj. Rating: Low to High
- Proj. Rating: High to Low
- +EV: Low to High
- +EV: High to Low
Recent Form Trends
Bears are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Bears are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games.
Cougars are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home underdog.
Under is 6-0 in Bears last 6 games following a straight up loss.
Over is 8-1 in Bears last 9 games as a road favorite.
Cougars are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Cougars are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite.
Bears are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.