Best NFL Picks Today

The Patriots enter Week 10 allowing the second most “explosive” passes of 20+ yards and are also missing defenders in the secondary, with DB Carlton Davis III out and DB Charles Woods and safety Kevin Byard questionable.
For his career, St. Brown is one of the most dangerous WRs versus man coverage and will face plenty of it from a Patriots secondary running man schemes at the second highest rate. St. Brown’s projections for Week 10 sit between 78 and 96 receiving yards, with my forecast coming out to 84 yards in Germany.

This yardage prop is in play up to 52% because a breakout game is coming for Rice. He’s recorded a respectable 102 receiving yards over the past two weeks despite an unsustainably low 1.3 aDOT. Rice paced the NFL in yards after the catch per reception with an 8.1 mark last season, and his 8.2 YAC/REC this year is right in line for the game-breaking playmaker. Plus, with the Falcons allowing nine wideouts to top 60 receiving yards through nine games, the matchup checks out for Rice, too.

The Bills have used multiple-TE sets at a rate of better than 50% in each of the last two weeks, including 64% against the Vikings last week. That resulted in Dawson Knox playing 18 more snaps than Dalton Kincaid, who doesn't look like he'll be the volume tight end we saw during the first couple of games this season. Buffalo continues to get creative in the red zone, keeping all of its longshot tight ends in play at their current prices. The Jets are a top-five matchup for opposing tight ends. Travis Kelce scored and led the Chiefs in receiving last week, Brock Bowers went for 7/92/2 in Week 8, and Greg Dulcich led the Dolphins in receiving the week before. Knox actually has more targets than Kincaid inside the 10-yard line, and I'd play him to 5.5x after getting 6x.

This is available at 8.46x despite the trades that sent Keenan Allen to San Francisco and Josh Downs to Kansas City. That opens the door for Ashton Dulin to take on a larger role after scoring a TD last week. He's listed as a starting WR on the current depth chart and should see an increase in snaps. Head coach Shane Steichen also mentioned that Dulin and the other receivers will absorb those routes, with plenty of opportunities to go around. The Colts could be playing with great field position all game, with Kyle McCord starting under center for the Dolphins and unlikely to move the ball consistently. Any starting outside WR against Miami shouldn't be priced longer than 6x. This is great value created by the trades. At least we know Dulin cares about football in Indianapolis.

Williams has stepped into the WR3 role, giving Love a big target in the slot. He’s caught 11 of 13 targets for game outputs of five, 25, 32, and 47 yards. The Vikes have been exposed by slot options, most recently allowing Buffalo’s Khalil Shakir to pick up 58 yards on four receptions. Williams’ Week 10 projections vary, sitting between 15 and 24.5 yards. My projection comes out to 20 yards receiving but I see a higher ceiling, considering the matchup. 

The Saints have given up 12 TDs to opposing RBs this season, while Hubbard leads his team in TDs and has averaged nearly 17 carries per game and 4.6 ypc.

This was 6x this week, and it's something I'd play down to 5.7x in a lay-up matchup for what might be the deepest team in football right now. The Jaguars should see a similar game script to their Week 9 matchup against the Ravens. Nate Boerkircher continues to carve out more snaps, playing 55% of them in a blowout win compared to 47% the week before. If the Titans can keep things competitive, the rookie tight end could see five targets as Brenton Strange's role as the TE1 continues to decline. The Titans allow the second-most passing yards in football at 258.3 per game, and that number jumps to 325.7 over their last three games. If you're trying to be profitable in TD betting, these are the types of prices and angles you need to consider. Hitting touchdowns at +200 or shorter makes it difficult to build a card with a 33% hit rate or better.

Nico Collins is an absolute nightmare to deal with, and Cleveland's middling secondary is going to have its issues. Collins has four touchdowns in six games this season, and with Stroud coming off a five-touchdown clinic, that connection is looking as dangerous as ever. Give Collins an inch in the red zone, and he'll make you pay. Despite missing time, Collins is still 10th in the NFL with 10 red-zone targets, let's see some volume inside the 20 here.

I recommend this total up to 65+ yards. Las Vegas has been gashed on the ground over the past six weeks for a league-high 5.74 yards per carry and EPA per rush, and Charbonnet proved he was all the way back last week with a high-end 3.75 yards after contact per attempt and 110 PFF elusive rating. He finished the game with 66 rushing yards on 16 totes.

Blake Corum has enjoyed the Rams’ three-game winning streak. He’s seen a spike in carries and has struck for a touchdown in each of those outings. Corum does the bulk of his damage in the second half, providing relief for RB1 Kyren Williams, with four of his five total TDs this season coming in the closing 30 minutes. His lone first-half strike was a 15-yard touchdown reception in the upset loss to Arizona in Week 6.

This touchdown prop is in play up to 50%. The Cowboys have surrendered the fourth-highest catch rate to opposing tight ends, and Kittle has been a force this season with a high-end 12.7 yards per reception, 8.5 aDOT and five touchdowns. He's also garnered 30% of the red-zone targets for the 49ers, including at least one red-zone look in seven of eight games.

On the season, Pittsburgh has allowed the 15th most receiving yards to rival TEs despite giving up the fifth fewest targets. FTN rates the Steelers DVOA vs tight ends at 24th among all teams. Bengals tight end Mike Gesicki caught all three balls his way for 37 yards in the Week 3 matchup with the Steelers. Projections for Sunday night are very bullish for Gesicki, with all models north of 25 yards and a ceiling flirting with 40 yards. My number comes out to 33+ yards in Week 10.

I price Baltimore at 73%, making 65% an easy buy on Kalshi. The Chargers are 0-8, and their incentive to chase wins has to be questioned. With a roster better than its record suggests, taking a leap year and securing a top draft pick may be the smarter play.