Texans vs Browns Picks & Props
HOU vs CLE Picks
NFL PicksI don't trust Deshaun Watson with the ball against this defense whatsoever, and with CJ Stroud balling and coming off the best game of his season (384 yards, five touchdowns), I'll comfortably ride with the Houston Texans. Quietly, this Texans offense is third in the NFL in passing yards per game (269) and has paired a potent offense with a serviceable defense this year. Meanwhile, the Cleveland Browns are the 24th-ranked offense in football. Houston should have no problem covering this.
The Browns are an elite pass defense, according to the holy trinity of advanced analytics. They’re No. 9 in EPA allowed per dropback and Pass Defense DVOA, while allowing the sixth lowest success rate per passing play to opponents. Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud takes a crack at Cleveland’s air defenses in Week 10. He’s having a massive year so far, but his stats have been puffed up by piss-poor passing defenses and a cozy schedule. His career passer rating drops to 87.5 outside versus 98.8 in controlled climates, with his yards per attempt shrinking from 7.98 indoors to 6.68 outdoors.
Tank Dell is coming off a team-high nine targets on just a 55% route share last week, and head coach DeMeco Ryans is suggesting we should see more of him going forward. This offense is healthy and dangerous against a Cleveland defense that has allowed 23+ points in three straight weeks to struggling offenses in Tennessee, Pittsburgh, and New Orleans. I got Dell at 4.55x and would confidently play him down to 4x.
Nico Collins is an absolute nightmare to deal with, and Cleveland's middling secondary is going to have its issues. Collins has four touchdowns in six games this season, and with Stroud coming off a five-touchdown clinic, that connection is looking as dangerous as ever. Give Collins an inch in the red zone, and he'll make you pay. Despite missing time, Collins is still 10th in the NFL with 10 red-zone targets, let's see some volume inside the 20 here.
Stroud has gone over this number in six of eight games, and has silently been incredible - throwing 16 touchdowns against two interceptions. What does that mean? My man is dialed in this year. Houston is doing a great job keeping their quarterback upright, too, allowing just two sacks per game. A comfortable pocket means a comfortable Stroud, and that's a scary sight for Cleveland.
Houston's offense is firing; Stroud put on an absolute clinic against the Chargers, and he's in a good spot to do so one more time. The Texans' defense is just as dangerous, piling up eight sacks last week, and now gets a Cleveland offensive line that's already allowed Watson to be taken down 33 times in eight games. With Houston clicking on both sides of the ball and Cleveland struggling to finish drives, this has all the makings of a long afternoon for the Browns.
HOU vs CLE Consensus Picks
HOU vs CLE Props
| GAME & PLAYER PROPS | PROJECTIONS | ANALYSIS | BEST ODDS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
SPREAD
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL
Under
40.0 Total
38.95 UNDER
PROJECTION
-1.0
DIFFERENCE
12.1%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING YARDS
C. Stroud
(QB)
u244.5 Passing Yards
197.38 UNDER
PROJECTION
-47.1
DIFFERENCE
26.53%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING YARDS
D. Watson
(QB)
u210.5 Passing Yards
201.40 UNDER
PROJECTION
-9.1
DIFFERENCE
18.55%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
C. Stroud
(QB)
o10.5 Rushing Yards
15.96 OVER
PROJECTION
+5.5
DIFFERENCE
26.9%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
W. Marks
(RB)
o61.5 Rushing Yards
75.29 OVER
PROJECTION
+13.8
DIFFERENCE
26.07%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
Q. Judkins
(RB)
o44.5 Rushing Yards
55.78 OVER
PROJECTION
+11.3
DIFFERENCE
25.99%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
D. Watson
(QB)
o25.5 Rushing Yards
32.01 OVER
PROJECTION
+6.5
DIFFERENCE
25.25%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
Q. Judkins
(RB)
o4.5 Receiving Yards
10.12 OVER
PROJECTION
+5.6
DIFFERENCE
25.85%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
N. Collins
(WR)
u61.5 Receiving Yards
51.25 UNDER
PROJECTION
-10.3
DIFFERENCE
24.91%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
H. Fannin Jr.
(TE)
o38.5 Receiving Yards
44.59 OVER
PROJECTION
+6.1
DIFFERENCE
23.53%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
K. Concepcion Jr.
(WR)
o45.5 Receiving Yards
50.41 OVER
PROJECTION
+4.9
DIFFERENCE
19.02%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
D. Schultz
(TE)
u31.5 Receiving Yards
27.67 UNDER
PROJECTION
-3.8
DIFFERENCE
18.19%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
W. Marks
(RB)
o11.5 Receiving Yards
12.80 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.3
DIFFERENCE
-2.39%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS MADE
N. Collins
(WR)
u4.5 Receptions Made
3.59 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.9
DIFFERENCE
19.74%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS MADE
Q. Judkins
(RB)
o1.5 Receptions Made
1.55 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
13.66%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS MADE
K. Concepcion Jr.
(WR)
u4.5 Receptions Made
4.18 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.3
DIFFERENCE
10.07%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS MADE
D. Schultz
(TE)
u3.5 Receptions Made
2.97 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.5
DIFFERENCE
8.87%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS MADE
W. Marks
(RB)
o1.5 Receptions Made
1.72 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.2
DIFFERENCE
-14.32%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
W. Marks
(RB)
o16.5 Rushing Attempts
18.33 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.8
DIFFERENCE
16.82%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
Q. Judkins
(RB)
o13.5 Rushing Attempts
14.31 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.8
DIFFERENCE
15.24%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
D. Watson
(QB)
o6.5 Rushing Attempts
6.75 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.3
DIFFERENCE
-0.49%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING ATTEMPTS
C. Stroud
(QB)
u34.5 Passing Attempts
32.81 UNDER
PROJECTION
-1.7
DIFFERENCE
12.62%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING ATTEMPTS
D. Watson
(QB)
o31.5 Passing Attempts
32.51 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.0
DIFFERENCE
11.64%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING COMPLETIONS
C. Stroud
(QB)
u20.5 Passing Completions
16.95 UNDER
PROJECTION
-3.5
DIFFERENCE
22.72%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING COMPLETIONS
D. Watson
(QB)
u19.5 Passing Completions
18.97 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.5
DIFFERENCE
10.24%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
D. Watson
(QB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.24 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
23.76%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
W. Marks
(RB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.65 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
23.41%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
N. Collins
(WR)
Anytime Touchdown
0.43 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
13.19%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
K. Concepcion Jr.
(WR)
Anytime Touchdown
0.3 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
10.14%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Q. Judkins
(RB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.32 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
-9.88%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
H. Fannin Jr.
(TE)
Anytime Touchdown
0.22 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
-10.13%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
C. Stroud
(QB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.1 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
-19.7%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
D. Schultz
(TE)
Anytime Touchdown
0.2 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
-19.7%
EV
|
|||||||
|
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
D. Watson
(QB)
u0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.42 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
17.24%
EV
|
|||||||
|
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
C. Stroud
(QB)
o0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.78 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.3
DIFFERENCE
0.89%
EV
|
|||||||
- Proj. Diff: Low to High
- Proj. Diff: High to Low
- Proj. Rating: Low to High
- Proj. Rating: High to Low
- +EV: Low to High
- +EV: High to Low
Recent Form Trends
Browns are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games.
Over is 5-0 in Browns last 5 games as a favorite.
Browns are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog.
Browns are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Browns are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
Browns are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. AFC.
Over is 4-0-1 in Texans last 5 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
Over is 6-0 in Texans last 6 games following a ATS win.