Seahawks vs Raiders Picks & Props
SEA vs LV Picks
NFL PicksI recommend the Seahawks to -7.5 in this Week 10 tilt. Seattle ranks second in defensive DVOA while allowing the fifth-lowest EPA per play and generating pressure at the second-highest rate. It’s a nightmare scenario for Raiders rookie Fernando Mendoza in his first career start. Of course, the Las Vegas defense ranks last in DVOA while allowing the highest EPA per play over the past seven weeks.
The Raiders have gone Over in seven straight games, with each producing at least 55 combined points. This total appears too low and is an overeaction following Seattle's 17-3 win over Arizona and Fernando Mendoza taking over for Las Vegas. The Seahawks have allowed 32-plus points three times this season, while Drew Lock gets a Raiders defense allowing a league-worst 29.8 PPG and ranking 31st in yards allowed per play.
Let's back the rookie in his first start at 7.14x, with 6.5x being a more reasonable fair price. It's not an easy matchup, but at least the Seahawks have the league's second-worst red-zone TD rate at 75% this season. The Raiders have also been awful running the ball, averaging a league-low 2.9 yards per carry, with just two red-zone rushing touchdowns from their running backs on 45 attempts. Even Kirk Cousins found the end zone last week at 16/1. If he can do it, so can the betting favorite for OROY, who scored seven rushing touchdowns on 65 actual carries at Indiana last season. Young QBs can panic near the goal line, and I'll gladly take a couple of scrambles inside the 20.
I recommend Charbonnet to find the end zone up to 50%. The Raiders have surrendered nine touchdowns to opposing running backs across their past six games while also allowing the highest EPA per rush to rank last in run defense DVOA during the stretch. Plus, Charbonnet is still looking for his first touchdown of the season after scoring 12 times across 16 games last year.
I recommend this total up to 65+ yards. Las Vegas has been gashed on the ground over the past six weeks for a league-high 5.74 yards per carry and EPA per rush, and Charbonnet proved he was all the way back last week with a high-end 3.75 yards after contact per attempt and 110 PFF elusive rating. He finished the game with 66 rushing yards on 16 totes.
Seattle ranks second in defensive DVOA while allowing the fifth-lowest EPA per play and generating pressure at the second-highest rate. It’s a nightmare scenario for Las Vegas rookie QB Fernando Mendoza in his first career start. The Raiders have also surrendered nine touchdowns to opposing running backs across their past six games while also allowing the highest EPA per rush to rank last in run defense DVOA during the stretch, so this is a cushy matchup for Charbonnet. He also showed off in Week 9 with a high-end 3.75 yards after contact per attempt, 19 rushing yards over expected and a 110 PFF elusive rating.
SEA vs LV Consensus Picks
SEA vs LV Props
| GAME & PLAYER PROPS | PROJECTIONS | ANALYSIS | BEST ODDS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
SPREAD
LV
+6.5 spread
4.42
PROJECTION
-2.1
DIFFERENCE
14.61%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL
Over
40.5 Total
45.80 OVER
PROJECTION
+5.3
DIFFERENCE
17.54%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING YARDS
D. Lock
(QB)
o203.5 Passing Yards
215.18 OVER
PROJECTION
+11.7
DIFFERENCE
23.14%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
A. Jeanty
(RB)
o34.5 Rushing Yards
40.13 OVER
PROJECTION
+5.6
DIFFERENCE
22.41%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
D. Lock
(QB)
o5.5 Rushing Yards
7.09 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.6
DIFFERENCE
19.84%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
Z. Charbonnet
(RB)
u65.5 Rushing Yards
62.33 UNDER
PROJECTION
-3.2
DIFFERENCE
17.02%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
T. Tucker
(WR)
o26.5 Receiving Yards
40.23 OVER
PROJECTION
+13.7
DIFFERENCE
26.14%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
B. Bowers
(TE)
o58.5 Receiving Yards
72.89 OVER
PROJECTION
+14.4
DIFFERENCE
25.88%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
Z. Charbonnet
(RB)
o9.5 Receiving Yards
11.69 OVER
PROJECTION
+2.2
DIFFERENCE
20.63%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
J. Smith-Njigba
(WR)
o89.5 Receiving Yards
93.94 OVER
PROJECTION
+4.4
DIFFERENCE
19.53%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
A. Barner
(TE)
o21.5 Receiving Yards
22.78 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.3
DIFFERENCE
9.41%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
A. Jeanty
(RB)
o25.5 Receiving Yards
26.21 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.7
DIFFERENCE
3.26%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS MADE
A. Jeanty
(RB)
u4.5 Receptions Made
3.79 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.7
DIFFERENCE
11.1%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS MADE
A. Barner
(TE)
u2.5 Receptions Made
2.46 PUSH
PROJECTION
0.0
DIFFERENCE
10.78%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS MADE
B. Bowers
(TE)
o5.5 Receptions Made
6.24 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.7
DIFFERENCE
10.45%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS MADE
T. Tucker
(WR)
o2.5 Receptions Made
2.90 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.4
DIFFERENCE
7.2%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS MADE
J. Smith-Njigba
(WR)
u7.5 Receptions Made
6.96 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.5
DIFFERENCE
6.87%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS MADE
Z. Charbonnet
(RB)
o1.5 Receptions Made
1.79 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.3
DIFFERENCE
-13.79%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
Z. Charbonnet
(RB)
u15.5 Rushing Attempts
14.45 UNDER
PROJECTION
-1.1
DIFFERENCE
11.25%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
A. Jeanty
(RB)
u10.5 Rushing Attempts
9.71 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.8
DIFFERENCE
11.23%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING ATTEMPTS
D. Lock
(QB)
o28.5 Passing Attempts
28.61 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
-15.13%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING COMPLETIONS
D. Lock
(QB)
u19.5 Passing Completions
19.26 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.2
DIFFERENCE
2.21%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Z. Charbonnet
(RB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.67 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
21.81%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
B. Bowers
(TE)
Anytime Touchdown
0.37 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
16.23%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
J. Smith-Njigba
(WR)
Anytime Touchdown
0.56 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
12.88%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
T. Tucker
(WR)
Anytime Touchdown
0.19 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
11.01%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
A. Jeanty
(RB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.34 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
-5.9%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
A. Barner
(TE)
Anytime Touchdown
0.22 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
-13.42%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
D. Lock
(QB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.08 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
-27.54%
EV
|
|||||||
|
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
D. Lock
(QB)
u0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.44 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
11.19%
EV
|
|||||||
- Proj. Diff: Low to High
- Proj. Diff: High to Low
- Proj. Rating: Low to High
- Proj. Rating: High to Low
- +EV: Low to High
- +EV: High to Low
Recent Form Trends
Over is 7-0 in Raiders last 7 games overall.
Over is 6-0 in Raiders last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Seahawks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite.
Over is 7-0 in Raiders last 7 games as an underdog.
Seahawks are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog.
Over is 4-0 in Raiders last 4 games following a ATS win.
Over is 7-0 in Raiders last 7 games following a straight up loss of more than 14 points.
Raiders are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss.